reports
- Jørgen Lian
Another abrupt change
The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Jørgen Lian
‘The times they are a-changin’
The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Jørgen Lian
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Jørgen Lian
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact Over the past two weeks we have discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and the mounting evidence that suggests the lows may be in for this pullback (4/30/24 Compass). Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below. As a result, we continue to believe the lows are in for this pullback, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on t...
EME EMCOR GROUP
GBX GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC.
BKD BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC.
TRN TRINITY INDUSTRIES INC.
MTZ MASTEC INC.
MATX MATSON INC.
ENSG ENSIGN GROUP INC.
ASC ARDMORE SHIPPING
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
LCM COSTAMARE INC.
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
GATX GATX CORPORATION
KBR KBR INC.
KEX KIRBY CORPORATION
RAIL FREIGHTCAR AMERICA INC.
WAB WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION
FSTR L.B. FOSTER CO.
NMM NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS
GSL GLOBAL SHIP LEASE INC. CLASS A
DAC DANAOS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
NHC NHC COMMUNICATIONS
J INC.
JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.
- Jørgen Lian
Yard response and dry bulk qualms
Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Jonathan Moreland
MHLD MAIDEN HOLDINGS LTD.
HNRG HALLADOR ENERGY CO.
HOO HERBALIFE NUTRITION LTD.
DLTR DOLLAR TREE INC.
CRK COMSTOCK RESOURCES INC.
LULU LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC
RAIL FREIGHTCAR AMERICA INC.
ZUMZ ZUMIEZ INC.
TRT TRIO TECH INTERNATIONAL
GLQ CLOUGH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND
WDFC WD-40 COMPANY
AINC ASHFORD
BRT BRT APARTMENTS
ISDR ISSUER DIRECT CORP.
LOVE LOVESAC
CWEN CLEARWAY ENERGY INC. CLASS C
ORGO ORGANOGENESIS HOLDINGS (A)
HROW HARROW HEALTH INC.
LEGH LEGACY HOUSING CORP
REEMF RARE ELEMENT RESOURCES
AIM AIM IMMUNOTECH
DCTH DELCATH SYSTEMS
HGBL HERITAGE GLOBAL
NKTX NKARTA
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
SOWG SOW GOOD INC.
PHX PANHANDLE OIL AND GAS INC
SMMT SUMMIT THERAPEUTICS INC
AUID IPSIDY INC.
FSBC FIVE STAR BANCORP
DERM JOURNEY MEDICAL CORP
LEE LEE ENTERPRISES INC
MPA BLACKROCK MUNIYIELD PENNSYLVANIA FD
FTHY FIRST TRUST HIGH YIELD OPPORTUNITIES 2027 TERM FUND
TCBX THIRD COAST BANCSHARES INC
ASLE AERSALE CORP
AIKI AIKIDO PHARMA INC.
BUKS BUTLER NATIONAL CORP
MEGI MAINSTAY CBRE GBL INFRASTRUCTURE MEGATRENDS FD
NMAI NUVEEN MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND
ACRV ACRIVON THERAPEUTICS INC
LSXMA LIBERTY SIRIUSXM GROUP
TISI TEAM INC.
CBSTF CANNABIST CO HOLDINGS INC.
TSVT 2SEVENTY BIO INC
ASGI ABERDEEN STANDARD GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE INCOME FUND
INTZ INTRUSION INC
PROP PRAIRIE OPERATING CO.
LGVN LONGEVERON INC
OCX ONCOCYTE CORPORATION
- Jonathan Moreland
NEOG NEOGEN CORPORATION
MHLD MAIDEN HOLDINGS LTD.
HNRG HALLADOR ENERGY CO.
HOO HERBALIFE NUTRITION LTD.
GOGO GOGO INC.
DLTR DOLLAR TREE INC.
CRK COMSTOCK RESOURCES INC.
CPSI COMPUTER PROGRAMS & SYSTEMS INC.
LULU LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC
AAOI APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS INC.
RAIL FREIGHTCAR AMERICA INC.
ZUMZ ZUMIEZ INC.
TRT TRIO TECH INTERNATIONAL
GLQ CLOUGH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND
BRT BRT APARTMENTS
VICI VICI PROPERTIES INC
STKS THE ONE GROUP HOSPITALITY INC.
ISDR ISSUER DIRECT CORP.
CWEN CLEARWAY ENERGY INC. CLASS C
ORGO ORGANOGENESIS HOLDINGS (A)
HROW HARROW HEALTH INC.
LEGH LEGACY HOUSING CORP
REEMF RARE ELEMENT RESOURCES
AIM AIM IMMUNOTECH
DCTH DELCATH SYSTEMS
HGBL HERITAGE GLOBAL
NKTX NKARTA
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
SOWG SOW GOOD INC.
PHX PANHANDLE OIL AND GAS INC
SMMT SUMMIT THERAPEUTICS INC
FSBC FIVE STAR BANCORP
DERM JOURNEY MEDICAL CORP
LEE LEE ENTERPRISES INC
ACHR ARCHER AVIATION INC
FTHY FIRST TRUST HIGH YIELD OPPORTUNITIES 2027 TERM FUND
TCBX THIRD COAST BANCSHARES INC
ASLE AERSALE CORP
AIKI AIKIDO PHARMA INC.
BUKS BUTLER NATIONAL CORP
MEGI MAINSTAY CBRE GBL INFRASTRUCTURE MEGATRENDS FD
NMAI NUVEEN MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND
LSXMA LIBERTY SIRIUSXM GROUP
TISI TEAM INC.
CBSTF CANNABIST CO HOLDINGS INC.
TSVT 2SEVENTY BIO INC
ASGI ABERDEEN STANDARD GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE INCOME FUND
INTZ INTRUSION INC
PROP PRAIRIE OPERATING CO.
LGVN LONGEVERON INC
- Jonathan Moreland
BRT BRT APARTMENTS
FPF FIRST TRUST INTERMEDIATE DURATION PREFERRED AND INCOME FUND
ZM ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS
EGLE INC.
MPA EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
BUKS BLACKROCK MUNIYIELD PENNSYLVANIA FD
NPCT BUTLER NATIONAL CORP
ASGI NUVEEN CORE PLUS IMPACT FD
ABERDEEN STANDARD GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE INCOME FUND
- Jonathan Moreland
MHLD MAIDEN HOLDINGS LTD.
HNRG HALLADOR ENERGY CO.
HOO HERBALIFE NUTRITION LTD.
GOGO GOGO INC.
DLTR DOLLAR TREE INC.
CRK COMSTOCK RESOURCES INC.
CPSI COMPUTER PROGRAMS & SYSTEMS INC.
LULU LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC
AAOI APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS INC.
GLQ CLOUGH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND
BRT BRT APARTMENTS
VICI VICI PROPERTIES INC
FPF FIRST TRUST INTERMEDIATE DURATION PREFERRED AND INCOME FUND
STKS THE ONE GROUP HOSPITALITY INC.
ISDR ISSUER DIRECT CORP.
CWEN CLEARWAY ENERGY INC. CLASS C
ORGO ORGANOGENESIS HOLDINGS (A)
HROW HARROW HEALTH INC.
LEGH LEGACY HOUSING CORP
REEMF RARE ELEMENT RESOURCES
AIM AIM IMMUNOTECH
DCTH DELCATH SYSTEMS
HGBL HERITAGE GLOBAL
NKTX NKARTA
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
CSU CAPITAL SENIOR LIVING
SOWG SOW GOOD INC.
PHX PANHANDLE OIL AND GAS INC
SMMT SUMMIT THERAPEUTICS INC
MYO MYOMO
FSBC FIVE STAR BANCORP
GRPH GRAPHITE BIO
CLOV INC.
XERS CLOVER HEALTH INV CORP
DERM XERIS BIOPHARMA HLDGS INC
LEE JOURNEY MEDICAL CORP
ACHR LEE ENTERPRISES INC
FTHY ARCHER AVIATION INC
TCBX FIRST TRUST HIGH YIELD OPPORTUNITIES 2027 TERM FUND
ASLE THIRD COAST BANCSHARES INC
BUKS AERSALE CORP
MEGI BUTLER NATIONAL CORP
NMAI MAINSTAY CBRE GBL INFRASTRUCTURE MEGATRENDS FD
OABI NUVEEN MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND
TISI OMNIAB INC
CBSTF TEAM INC.
TSVT CANNABIST CO HOLDINGS INC.
ASGI 2SEVENTY BIO INC
INTZ ABERDEEN STANDARD GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE INCOME FUND
INTRUSION INC
- Jørgen Lian
A brewing challenge for the yards
Our 17th Annual Energy & Shipping Conference was well attended by investors and industry executives showcasing the still-growing interest for the sectors. Limited yard capacity is fuelling high newbuilding prices and raising freight rate expectations for the vast fleet renewal necessary in the coming decade. Long lead times underpin a bullish supply story for much of shipping in the coming years, albeit exposed to geopolitical risks affecting trade patterns. Our overall impression was general op...
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Jørgen Lian
Eagle Bulk Shipping (Hold, TP: USD58.00) - Star Bulk shares potentiall...
Eagle Bulk’s NAV has risen to ~USD79/share on strong vessel values and potentially solid Q4 cash flow, while the share price remains pegged to the takeover offer by Star Bulk. The transaction is estimated to net Eagle Bulk’s shareholders ~USD74/share of the potentially combined entity’s prorated NAV, or USD58/share based on the last closing price of Star Bulk shares. The possibility to unlock at least USD50m in annual cost and revenue synergies provides further upside potential, in our view. We ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
VIRC VIRCO MANUFACTURING CORP.
STLD STEEL DYNAMICS INC.
LCNB LCNB CORP.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GLP GLOBAL PARTNERS LP
ESCA ESCALADE INC.
COST COSTCO WHOLESALE CORPORATION
BPMC BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORP.
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MCBC MACATAWA BANK CORP.
FMAO FARMERS & MERCHANTS BANCORP INC.
GLOB GLOBANT SA
TREE LENDINGTREE INC.
AA ALCOA CORPORATION
CRD.A CRAWFORD & CO. CL A
RYTM RHYTHM PHARMACEUTICALS
AMRX AMNEAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC. CLASS A
EBTC ENTERPRISE BANCORP INC.
VRCA VERRICA PHARMACEUTICALS
ALEC ALECTOR
BBIO BRIDGEBIO PHARMA
XRX XEROX HOLDINGS CORPORATION
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
CGNT COGNYTE SOFTWARE LTD.
AMR ALPHA METALLURGICAL RESOURCES INC
MYO MYOMO
FOUR SHIFT4 PAYMENTS
PRCT PROCEPT BIOROBOTICS CORP
PAY PAYMENTUS HLDGS INC
IMMX IMMIX BIOPHARMA INC
BHVN BIOHAVEN LTD
TEAM ATLASSIAN CORPORATION
ML MEILI AUTO HOLDINGS LTD.
IIND ISHARES MSCI INDIA UCITS ETF
- Jørgen Lian
Eagle Bulk Shipping (Buy, TP: USD48.00) - Star Bulk offers USD52.3/sha...
Eagle Bulk, together with Star Bulk, yesterday announced a definitive agreement to combine in an all-stock merger by issuing 2.6211 Star Bulk shares for each Eagle Bulk share. The consideration equates to a 13% premium to Eagle Bulk’s closing price, while the combined entity would eye at least USD50m in annual synergies. Based on the proposed terms, we see ~12% upside potential to Eagle Bulk on the announcement prior to any market reaction in the Star Bulk shares.
- Jørgen Lian
Eagle Bulk Shipping (Buy, TP: USD48.00) - Improved near-term outlook
Eagle Bulk’s Supramax fleet is surfing on relatively stronger rates and vessel value momentum, driven by improved buying interest from asset-trading owners, which we expect to relieve the continued concerns regarding elevated values. We find attractive risk/reward, priced at a ~40% markdown to NAV, and reiterate our BUY and USD48 target price.
- Jørgen Lian
Burdened by a sluggish economy
We reiterate our BUYs on all our dry bulk names, but catalysts for a marked re-pricing of the stocks now appear further out. In our view, valuation and risk/reward remain attractive, but potential negative earnings revisions and an uncertain outlook should cloud the sector into 2024e. However, we see meaningful upside potential if Chinese growth accelerates and a solid supply side lends support.
- Jørgen Lian
Eagle Bulk Shipping Minor model adjustments
We have updated our estimates to reflect the Q2 results, QTD fixtures, and other minor modelling adjustments. Rates have declined on soft volumes, decent supply growth and easing congestion, along with a weaker Chinese demand outlook, which may adversely pressure vessel values until rates recover on the current favourable supply-side fundamentals. Values have already started to tick downwards, with current quotes down ~15% YOY. Meanwhile, Eagle Bulk’s EV/GAV of 0.84x implies a 5-year Supramax va...
- Jørgen Lian
Eagle Bulk Shipping (Buy, TP: USD57.00) - On course for turbulent wind...
5-year Supramax vessels are changing hands for USD29.5m on broker quotes, versus the 2015–2019 average of USD17m when 1-year TCs averaged USD10k/day, compared to USD11k/day currently. Eagle Bulk’s share price implies 5-year Supramax vessels at USD24.8m at 0.85x EV/GAV, in line with our peer group. We believe this likely reflects deteriorating spot rates (
- Jørgen Lian
Eagle Bulk Shipping (Buy, TP: USD60.00) - Acquired Oaktree’s 28% stake
Eagle Bulk has repurchased Oaktree’s 28% stake in the company, securing control of a strategic position and removing a potential overhang. The transaction is directly accretive to NAV, and boosts running EPS and DPS, but came at a premium to its recent share price. The company’s reported LTV increases from 15% to 34%, but remains comfortable and should not change its dividend policy (30% of net income). We reiterate our BUY but have trimmed our target price to USD60 (61).
- Jonathan Moreland
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