Eagle Bulk Shipping (No_rec, TP: USD) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Eagle Bulk Shipping. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact Over the past two weeks we have discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and the mounting evidence that suggests the lows may be in for this pullback (4/30/24 Compass). Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below. As a result, we continue to believe the lows are in for this pullback, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on t...

Yard response and dry bulk qualms

Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.

InsiderInsights Weekly Report: April 20, 2024

InsiderInsights Ratings of Companies with Open-Market Form 4 Purchases; Sales Filed at the SEC on the date above. We separate the real investment intelligence from the noise. Saving you time, and improving your research process

InsiderInsights Weekly Report: April 13, 2024

InsiderInsights Ratings of Companies with Open-Market Form 4 Purchases; Sales Filed at the SEC on the date above. We separate the real investment intelligence from the noise. Saving you time, and improving your research process

InsiderInsights.com Daily Ratings Report: April 5, 2024

InsiderInsights Ratings of Companies with Open-Market Form 4 Purchases; Sales Filed at the SEC on the date above. We separate the real investment intelligence from the noise. Saving you time, and improving your research process

InsiderInsights Weekly Report: April 6, 2024

InsiderInsights Ratings of Companies with Open-Market Form 4 Purchases; Sales Filed at the SEC on the date above. We separate the real investment intelligence from the noise. Saving you time, and improving your research process

A brewing challenge for the yards

Our 17th Annual Energy & Shipping Conference was well attended by investors and industry executives showcasing the still-growing interest for the sectors. Limited yard capacity is fuelling high newbuilding prices and raising freight rate expectations for the vast fleet renewal necessary in the coming decade. Long lead times underpin a bullish supply story for much of shipping in the coming years, albeit exposed to geopolitical risks affecting trade patterns. Our overall impression was general op...

Eagle Bulk Shipping (Hold, TP: USD58.00) - Star Bulk shares potentiall...

Eagle Bulk’s NAV has risen to ~USD79/share on strong vessel values and potentially solid Q4 cash flow, while the share price remains pegged to the takeover offer by Star Bulk. The transaction is estimated to net Eagle Bulk’s shareholders ~USD74/share of the potentially combined entity’s prorated NAV, or USD58/share based on the last closing price of Star Bulk shares. The possibility to unlock at least USD50m in annual cost and revenue synergies provides further upside potential, in our view. We ...

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Eagle Bulk Shipping (Buy, TP: USD48.00) - Star Bulk offers USD52.3/sha...

Eagle Bulk, together with Star Bulk, yesterday announced a definitive agreement to combine in an all-stock merger by issuing 2.6211 Star Bulk shares for each Eagle Bulk share. The consideration equates to a 13% premium to Eagle Bulk’s closing price, while the combined entity would eye at least USD50m in annual synergies. Based on the proposed terms, we see ~12% upside potential to Eagle Bulk on the announcement prior to any market reaction in the Star Bulk shares.

Eagle Bulk Shipping (Buy, TP: USD48.00) - Improved near-term outlook

Eagle Bulk’s Supramax fleet is surfing on relatively stronger rates and vessel value momentum, driven by improved buying interest from asset-trading owners, which we expect to relieve the continued concerns regarding elevated values. We find attractive risk/reward, priced at a ~40% markdown to NAV, and reiterate our BUY and USD48 target price.

Burdened by a sluggish economy

We reiterate our BUYs on all our dry bulk names, but catalysts for a marked re-pricing of the stocks now appear further out. In our view, valuation and risk/reward remain attractive, but potential negative earnings revisions and an uncertain outlook should cloud the sector into 2024e. However, we see meaningful upside potential if Chinese growth accelerates and a solid supply side lends support.

Eagle Bulk Shipping Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates to reflect the Q2 results, QTD fixtures, and other minor modelling adjustments. Rates have declined on soft volumes, decent supply growth and easing congestion, along with a weaker Chinese demand outlook, which may adversely pressure vessel values until rates recover on the current favourable supply-side fundamentals. Values have already started to tick downwards, with current quotes down ~15% YOY. Meanwhile, Eagle Bulk’s EV/GAV of 0.84x implies a 5-year Supramax va...

Eagle Bulk Shipping (Buy, TP: USD57.00) - On course for turbulent wind...

5-year Supramax vessels are changing hands for USD29.5m on broker quotes, versus the 2015–2019 average of USD17m when 1-year TCs averaged USD10k/day, compared to USD11k/day currently. Eagle Bulk’s share price implies 5-year Supramax vessels at USD24.8m at 0.85x EV/GAV, in line with our peer group. We believe this likely reflects deteriorating spot rates (

Eagle Bulk Shipping (Buy, TP: USD60.00) - Acquired Oaktree’s 28% stake

Eagle Bulk has repurchased Oaktree’s 28% stake in the company, securing control of a strategic position and removing a potential overhang. The transaction is directly accretive to NAV, and boosts running EPS and DPS, but came at a premium to its recent share price. The company’s reported LTV increases from 15% to 34%, but remains comfortable and should not change its dividend policy (30% of net income). We reiterate our BUY but have trimmed our target price to USD60 (61).

InsiderInsights.com Daily Ratings Report: June 22, 2023

InsiderInsights Ratings of Companies with Open-Market Form 4 Purchases; Sales Filed at the SEC on the date above. We separate the real investment intelligence from the noise. Saving you time, and improving your research process

Eagle Bulk Shipping Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates to reflect the Q1 results, revised fuel spreads, and Eagle Bulk’s QTD fixtures, with 65% of available Q2 days fixed at ~USD16.0k/day, above our estimate and supportive of Q2 consensus EBITDA. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We estimate the stock is trading at a P/NAV of 0.60x and EV/GAV of 0.70x, and a 2023–2025e EV/EBITDA of 4.5x. We have lowered our target price to USD61 (63).

Northern Lights

Eagle Bulk Shipping Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, owing to near-term rate developments and revised fuel spreads. For Q1e, we are 4% above consensus on EBITDA (results due at after market close on 4 May), with Eagle Bulk having fixed 92% of days in the quarter. We see the stock as set to benefit from tangible demand-growth acceleration in China and the record-low orderbook-to-fleet ratio tightening supply/demand fundamentals. We calculate Eagle Bulk is trading at a P/NAV of 0.66x and EV/GAV of 0.75x (peers at 0.75x...