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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Peer Kroger 1Q25 results. Greenyard: Bid launched. PostNL: Dutch Postal Law change ear-marked Non-Controversial – still on the agenda. Prosus: FY25 results delivered on target. Var Energi: Jotun FPSO start-up, contributes to its cash flow

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica, Cofinimmo: Aedifica CMD feedback bpost: 1Q25 results beat strongly, outlook surprises Brunel: 1Q25 results disappoint on perm, weak revenue Cofinimmo, Aedifica: Negative reaction on Aedifica offer Eurocommercial Properties: Good with no surprise Montea: Good results, guidance reconfirmed Proximus: Small 1Q beat, guidance reiterated, soft commercial performance Sif Group: The jury is still out Talabat: Preview 1Q25 Universal Music Group: Peer Warner Music slowdown in streaming and prof...

Marc Zwartsenburg ... (+2)
  • Marc Zwartsenburg
  • CEFA

PostNL/All eyes on the ACM - Dutch government/HOLD

We keep our HOLD rating but lower our target price from €1.10 to €0.95 to reflect our new estimates. We stress that we have not included any upside from a potential change to the Dutch mail business model. This could provide significant upside dependent on the degree of flexibility provided in terms of delivery days (ie, D+2, and/or combined with a D+3 model in the future and/or State compensation for USO losses). The ACM is preparing an analysis on the future of the mail business model which is...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Strong 1Q25 in the US, additional details on FY25 guidance. Arcadis: Mixed start to FY25, US not to blame. PostNL: Highlights of 1Q25 analyst meeting. Sif Group: Preview - EBITDA capacity of new factory is key. Vonovia: Good results, positive message about valuations, new CEO. Wolters Kluwer: 1Q25 trading update – good start to the year

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Kinepolis: Box office doubles in US/Canada, flat attendance in France. KPN: VodafoneZiggo goes for accelerated DOCSIS 4.0 roll out, answering infra question. Lotus Bakeries: CEO expects US$100m in sales in India by the end of the decade. Philips: 1Q25 results – Guidance lowered on tariffs. PostNL: 1Q25 in line with consensus; FY25 outlook reiterated

Stefano Toffano ... (+2)
  • Stefano Toffano
  • Wim Gille
Livio Luyten ... (+4)
  • Livio Luyten
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Wim Lewi
Marc Zwartsenburg ... (+2)
  • Marc Zwartsenburg
  • CEFA

PostNL/Model update/HOLD

We have updated our model post FY24 reporting and we included the restated segment reporting with Real Estate sales and results now included in Parcels versus in MailNL previously. Note that PostNL guided for an underlying EBIT for FY25F of c.€53m, ie, in line with FY24. We estimate €48m, which is a significant downgrade vs the pre-FY24 results estimate of €98m. We feel that the outlook for FY25 is not without downside risk as (a) much will depend on a strong 4Q as we expect a rather soft start ...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Acomo: Going for growth. PostNL: Highlights of pre-earnings analyst call 1Q25. Shell: Updated outlook looks light. Staffing: US temp volume better in March; upward revisions to Feb/Jan; NFP jobs beat

Michiel Declercq
  • Michiel Declercq

PostNL Urgent regulatory changes were needed yesterday

Following the FY24 results, we have significantly lowered our normalized EBIT estimates for 2025 and 2026 by respectively 33% and 43%. Our new estimates assume that the mail segment will become loss making in 2025, only returning to profitability by 2027. However, in order to restore mail profitability, a change in the postal act will be needed. Any delays to these changes could be considered a risk for the stock, while the opposite is true for temporary measures or financial compensation from t...

Guy Sips ... (+8)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Morning Notes : AALB NA, AGS BB, ARGX BB, CFEB BB, CRBN NA, CMBT BB, M...

: AALB NA, AGS BB, ARGX BB, CFEB BB, CRBN NA, CMBT BB, MDXH BB, PNL NA, UCB BB, VAN BB, WDP BB, CTPNV NA, SYENS BB

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Fagron: FDA says semaglutide shortage is resolved. GBL: Imerys, a challenge and a possible solution. Food Delivery: Prosus set to acquire Just Eat Takeaway. PostNL: Final FY24 results in line, FY25 outlook below due to strategic investments. Retail Estates: 9-month update with no surprises

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+6)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Stefano Toffano ... (+2)
  • Stefano Toffano
  • Wim Gille
Guy Sips ... (+8)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
Baptiste Salaville ... (+4)
  • Baptiste Salaville
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Charlotte Vaisse
  • Jerôme Bodin
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