reports
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar Certified More Licenses
Over the past week, EchoStar has filed numerous new buildout reports at the FCC, increasing the number of licenses that will be preserved if the buildout deadline reverts to June 2025. In this brief note, we analyze the reports to determine the amount of additional license value that has been protected, and the value still at risk.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar Defaulting on Interest Payment
EchoStar released an 8-K this morning stating that it has elected not to make an interest payment due today. They have a 30-day grace period before this becomes an event of default. They hope to get relief from the FCC in that time. Our quick thoughts in this very brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T: what exactly are they buying from Lumen
This report leverages Broadband Insights to explore the markets where AT&T is buying fiber, including market demographics, the future upgrade opportunity, Cable companies at risk, and overbuilders at risk. We also distinguish the infrastructure that AT&T is buying in these markets from what they lease under IRUs and what they wholesale. Finally, we show our forecast for customers and penetration.
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN / AT&T: quick thoughts on fiber transaction
We provide quick thoughts on deal terms, the structure, the pending JV, and implications for Lumen, AT&T, the other wireless operators, and the Cable operators in this note. We have lots more work to do on this transaction in the coming weeks. AT&T is a big winner, in our view. This transaction supports our Buy recommendation (though we don’t expect to get paid on this thesis tomorrow).
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 1Q25
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Net adds declined from an already weak pace a year ago and are well below the pre-pandemic norm. The expected recovery following the end of ACP didn’t materialize. We ponder whether growth is structurally lower, or whether temporary ACP-related pressures have persisted longer than expected.
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN 1Q25 Quick Take: Revenue & EBITDA beat
Revenue was better than expected in Business and Mass Markets. In Business, management seemed more confident in improving trends than they were last quarter. In Mass Markets, fiber deployment and net adds were below expectations, but ARPU growth was well ahead. EBITDA was better in both segments, with signs that costs are being taken out as promised. Guidance is unchanged, but management said they were ahead of their plan so far; they are just being conservative.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Four killer insights from day one
We just wrapped up day one the Future-of-Connectivity conference that we host every year with BCG. We gleaned new insights into the risk of the broadband market getting more competitive, wireless market growth, what is driving the convergence imperative, and Lumen’s appetite for asset sales.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T in talks to buy Lumen fiber assets
Bloomberg reports that AT&T is in exclusive discussions to buy the fiber business for “more than $5.5BN”. We are not at all surprised that the deal is happening or that AT&T is the buyer. We are surprised by the price – it looks too low. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
The Lumen transaction report series
The biggest transaction likely to happen this year will be the sale of all or part of Lumen’s Mass Markets business (we expect other much bigger deals, but these will likely take longer to emerge than some seem to expect). We have covered the potential Lumen transaction in three reports in the last week: 1. We explored the Mass Markets asset in a detailed report last week that leverages Broadband Insights. This covered the markets where Lumen has deployed fiber so far, the number of competitor...
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN: a closer look at the infrastructure for sale
We published a report earlier this week arguing that the three national wireless carriers should all be targeting Lumen’s Mass Markets assets. In this follow-up, we provide a breakdown of Lumen’s Mass Markets assets, detailing where fiber has been deployed, how many copper locations can be upgraded with good returns, and who they compete against in fiber markets, upgradeable copper markets, and residual copper markets.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN: mass markets sale must happen!
We gleaned insights down at Metro Connect that convince us that AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile all need to buy Lumen’s Mass Market business. We understand the challenges with the deal that has been presented, but those can be fixed. We suspect the asset will transact soon, and it will be a strategic win for whomever gets it.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 4Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved again with net adds flat vs. last year. We expect organic net adds to recover next year due to lack of ACP headwind. Though the recovery could be impacted by immigration related headwinds.
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN: quick thoughts following the call 4Q24
In this brief note we cover updates on the fiber asset sale (not much), securitizations, copper decommissioning, and progress with deploying and penetrating fiber. We also touch on how results and new guidance stack up relative to expectations (they gave 2025 guidance and a little 2026 context).
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Buy the Pullback Again Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve. Two weeks ago, our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) all pulling back to their respective 20-day MAs, we believe it is time to buy the pullback again. We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early p...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 3Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved quite significantly. We continue to expect further recovery next year, once the ACP headwind has passed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN Quick Hit: Lumen and Google sign PCF contract
The companies announced reciprocal contracts today. Lumen will use Google Cloud, the Google Vertex AI platform, and the Google Gemini model to provide network insights and AI support for customer care. At the same time, Lumen will give Google access to existing fiber and build new fiber on new routes for Google.
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