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Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

LUMN quick hit: Lumen and AWS sign PCF contract

The companies announced reciprocal contracts today. AWS will use Lumen for connectivity between Regions and Local Zones; Lumen will move its IT and product platforms to AWS.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

LUMN Quick Hit: Lumen and Meta Sign PCF Contract

This morning, Lumen announced that they have entered into a Private Connectivity Fabric contract (PCF) with Meta to help drive AI network expansion. In this quick note, we use our PCF framework to estimate what the contract could be worth.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Lumen Technologies, Inc.: Update to credit analysis following upgrade ...

Execution risks associated with the company's on-going capex program, increasing leverage and uncertainty around the pace of recovery offset by scale and very good near term liquidity.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

LUMN: What is Lumen worth now?

We skipped publishing on the implications of up to $12BN in new contracts for Lumen and others because we didn’t officially cover Lumen when the news broke, and we assumed others would get to the right insights before us (and we had our hands full with results for the companies we do cover).

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

Autumn for Broadband 2Q24

In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Industry net adds were down substantially from a year ago, but trends have leveled off sequentially and they look to remain stable in 3Q24 (adjusting for one-time ACP impacts). We continue to expect growth to recover once the ACP headwind has passed.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

LUMN: quick thoughts following the call

In this note we cover the implications of the big contract wins announced last week as well as our thoughts on improving trends in Mass Markets and the value that Lumen is creating in that business. Lumen’s Mass Markets business has gone from consistently disappointing to one of the better performing assets in the group. The results they are delivering are very supportive of our positive view of broadband assets generally.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Booster Shots: Attractive bottom-fishing stocks

For investors looking for bottom-fishing candidates; stocks that are breaking downtrends, exhibiting ascending reaction lows, and showing stabilizing relative strength.

Vikash Harlalka
  • Vikash Harlalka

2Q24 Broadband Preview

Broadband industry growth has slowed over the last couple of quarters. For 2Q24, we expect reported broadband net adds below last year and pre-pandemic levels. We estimate that after adjusting for the one-time impact of ACP related disconnects, net adds were still below last year but were in-line with pre-pandemic levels. We think consensus expectations for the quarter are a little too negative, especially for Cable, and we expect reported adds to be slightly better than expectations.

Vikash Harlalka
  • Vikash Harlalka

US Broadband: Updating NPS for May and June

We have now updated the broadband NPS data from our 1Q24 broadband trends report for the months of May and June. Most Cable and Fiber operators have shown an improvement in NPS over the last 3 months. FWA NPS worsened slightly closing the gap between itself and other technologies. The worsening of FWA’s NPS was driven by Verizon FWA’s NPS which continued to worsen with lower scores across all drivers.

Lumen Technologies, Inc.: Key facts and statistics - LTM March 2024

A summary company profile, detailing Lumen Technologies, Inc.’s business operations and financial highlights.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

The broadband Open Access model

We created a model to better understand the economics of Gigapower for both AT&T and Blackrock. Please use the model and give us your thoughts. The model clarifies the value of broadband assets generally. It also clarifies why we are likely to see similar JVs from Frontier, Lumen, and others. We will adapt this model for those instances in due course.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

What happened to the US broadband market?

We have covered a lot of ground on the broadband sector over the last two weeks. I thought it might help to pull together some of the more important threads, in case you missed them during the busy reporting seasons.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

Autumn for Broadband 1Q24

In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Industry net adds were substantially weaker in 1Q24 with all technologies seeing slower growth (except DSL which was flat). Cable was impacted the most.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

LUMN quick hit: big improvement in fiber adds

We touch on Lumen’s fiber trends in this note and the implications for our broader broadband thesis in this brief note.

Lumen Technologies, Inc.: Update to credit analysis

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its geographic, revenue and client diversification, constrained by its elevated debt levels and its negative revenue and EBITDA trends.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

Broadband market growth slower in 1Q24

Broadband industry growth slowed in 4Q23. We wondered, exiting the quarter, whether growth would level off or slow further in 1Q24. Based on the data we have collected so far, it appears that growth has slowed further, and possibly quite materially. We suspect slower growth will impact all operators, although for fiber, it should be partly offset by footprint expansion.

Moody's appends limited default (LD) designation to Lumen Technologies...

Moody's Ratings (Moody's) appended a limited default (LD) designation to Lumen Technologies, Inc.'s (Lumen) Probability of Default Rating (PDR), changing it to Caa2-PD/LD from Caa2-PD, following the completion of its previously announced amended and restated transaction support agreement (TSA). On...

Jonathan Moreland
  • Jonathan Moreland

InsiderInsights Weekly Report: March 9, 2024

InsiderInsights Ratings of Companies with Open-Market Form 4 Purchases; Sales Filed at the SEC on the date above. We separate the real investment intelligence from the noise. Saving you time, and improving your research process

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