reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
Four killer insights from day one
We just wrapped up day one the Future-of-Connectivity conference that we host every year with BCG. We gleaned new insights into the risk of the broadband market getting more competitive, wireless market growth, what is driving the convergence imperative, and Lumen’s appetite for asset sales.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T in talks to buy Lumen fiber assets
Bloomberg reports that AT&T is in exclusive discussions to buy the fiber business for “more than $5.5BN”. We are not at all surprised that the deal is happening or that AT&T is the buyer. We are surprised by the price – it looks too low. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
The Lumen transaction report series
The biggest transaction likely to happen this year will be the sale of all or part of Lumen’s Mass Markets business (we expect other much bigger deals, but these will likely take longer to emerge than some seem to expect). We have covered the potential Lumen transaction in three reports in the last week: 1. We explored the Mass Markets asset in a detailed report last week that leverages Broadband Insights. This covered the markets where Lumen has deployed fiber so far, the number of competitor...
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN: a closer look at the infrastructure for sale
We published a report earlier this week arguing that the three national wireless carriers should all be targeting Lumen’s Mass Markets assets. In this follow-up, we provide a breakdown of Lumen’s Mass Markets assets, detailing where fiber has been deployed, how many copper locations can be upgraded with good returns, and who they compete against in fiber markets, upgradeable copper markets, and residual copper markets.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN: mass markets sale must happen!
We gleaned insights down at Metro Connect that convince us that AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile all need to buy Lumen’s Mass Market business. We understand the challenges with the deal that has been presented, but those can be fixed. We suspect the asset will transact soon, and it will be a strategic win for whomever gets it.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 4Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved again with net adds flat vs. last year. We expect organic net adds to recover next year due to lack of ACP headwind. Though the recovery could be impacted by immigration related headwinds.
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN: quick thoughts following the call 4Q24
In this brief note we cover updates on the fiber asset sale (not much), securitizations, copper decommissioning, and progress with deploying and penetrating fiber. We also touch on how results and new guidance stack up relative to expectations (they gave 2025 guidance and a little 2026 context).
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Buy the Pullback Again Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve. Two weeks ago, our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) all pulling back to their respective 20-day MAs, we believe it is time to buy the pullback again. We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early p...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 3Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved quite significantly. We continue to expect further recovery next year, once the ACP headwind has passed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN Quick Hit: Lumen and Google sign PCF contract
The companies announced reciprocal contracts today. Lumen will use Google Cloud, the Google Vertex AI platform, and the Google Gemini model to provide network insights and AI support for customer care. At the same time, Lumen will give Google access to existing fiber and build new fiber on new routes for Google.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
ATNI ATN INTERNATIONAL INC.
WYNN WYNN RESORTS LIMITED
STAA STAAR SURGICAL CO.
SATS ECHOSTAR CORPORATION CLASS A
NWPX NORTHWEST PIPE CO.
LVS LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP.
KRNT KORNIT DIGITAL LTD.
ITRI ITRON INC.
IRDM IRIDIUM COMMUNICATIONS INC.
HNRG HALLADOR ENERGY CO.
ELMD ELECTROMED
CVS CVS HEALTH CORPORATION
CRY CRYOLIFE INC.
BZH BEAZER HOMES USA INC.
ASPN ASPEN AEROGELS
ARDX ARDELYX INC
AMSC AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORP.
LULU LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
LEU CENTRUS ENERGY CORPORATION
NC NACCO INDUSTRIES INC. CL A
CMCL CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION
SNBR SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION
YEXT YEXT
CNX CNX RESOURCES CORPORATION
GLOB GAZIT-GLOBE LTD.
MTRX MATRIX IT LTD.
MEC MAYVILLE ENGINEERING
IGMS IGM BIOSCIENCES
PWFL POWERFLEET INC
OCN OCWEN FINANCIAL CORP.
MP MP MATERIALS CORP (A)
DFH DREAM FINDERS HOMES
LUMN LUMEN TECHNOLOGIES INC.
CSIOY CASIO COMPUTER CO
HOOD ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC
RKLB ROCKET LAB USA INC
EE EXCELERATE ENERGY INC
LASE LASER PHOTONICS CORP
CMPO COMPOSECURE INC
MPTI M TRON INDUSTRIES INC
LUNR INTUITIVE MACHINES INC
WGS GENEDX HOLDINGS CORP.
BYRN BYRNA TECHNOLOGIES INC
DAVE DAVE INC
TELO TELOMIR PHARMACEUTICALS INC
BVS BAYVIEW CAPITAL TRUST I PFD 9.76%
SNCR SYNCHRONOSS TECHNOLOGIES INC.
TECX TD GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY LEADERS CAD HEDGED INDEX ETF
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN: What is Lumen worth now?
We skipped publishing on the implications of up to $12BN in new contracts for Lumen and others because we didn’t officially cover Lumen when the news broke, and we assumed others would get to the right insights before us (and we had our hands full with results for the companies we do cover).
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 2Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Industry net adds were down substantially from a year ago, but trends have leveled off sequentially and they look to remain stable in 3Q24 (adjusting for one-time ACP impacts). We continue to expect growth to recover once the ACP headwind has passed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN: quick thoughts following the call
In this note we cover the implications of the big contract wins announced last week as well as our thoughts on improving trends in Mass Markets and the value that Lumen is creating in that business. Lumen’s Mass Markets business has gone from consistently disappointing to one of the better performing assets in the group. The results they are delivering are very supportive of our positive view of broadband assets generally.
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