Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK67.00) - Strong start to 2025

Q1 product sales were record-high at NOK44.5m (up 16% YOY, up 13% organically), driven by all products and geographical areas. EBITDA was NOK14m (Q1 2024: NOK4.8m), and the gross margin improved YOY to 64% (Q1 2024: 53%). Following minor estimate revisions, we reiterate our BUY and NOK67 target price.

Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK67.00) - Solid end to the year

Record-high sales of NOK42.6m in Q4 (up 14% YOY, organic up 13% YOY) were driven by fCAL®turbo and Cystatin C. The gross margin improved to 56% (Q4 2023 43%), resulting in another significant EBITDA improvement. The board proposed a 2024 DPS of NOK0.40. Following minor estimate revisions, we reiterate our BUY and NOK67 target price.

Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK67.00) - Sustained EBITDA momentum

While Q3 organic growth of 5% YOY suffered from weak sales in Asia (explained by the implementation of new regional tendering processes in China), EBITDA again showed a significant improvement. Following minor estimate revisions, we reiterate our BUY and NOK67 target price.

Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK67.00) - EBITDA improvement

Q2 product sales were NOK38.3m (organic growth of 13% YOY) and EBITDA was NOK6.8m (Q2 2023: NOK3.6m). After lowering our sales but increasing our EBITDA margin estimates for 2024–2027, we reiterate our BUY and NOK67 target price.

Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK67.00) - Development tailwind

As a result of the recent NT-proBNP development breakthrough, we have raised our likelihood of success for the assay. With this adjustment, we have increased our target price to NOK67 (57) and, as we continue to see Gentian as attractively valued, we reiterate our BUY.

Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK57.00) - Record sales in Q1

Record-high sales of NOK38.5m in Q1 corresponded to 19% organic sales growth YOY. The company reported positive EBITDA again, and progress in its NT-proBNP optimisation efforts. We have raised our 2024–2026e revenues by an average of 6.8%, made minor cost estimate revisions as well as project a more favourable FCF because of revised working capital forecasts. In turn we have increased our target price to NOK57 (54) and reiterate our BUY.

Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK54.00) - A (EBITDA-)positive year

Gentian reported 23% organic sales growth YOY in Q4. For 2023, sales were NOK135.2m (21% organic growth compared to 2022). Notably, the company was also EBITDA positive for the full year (NOK3.3m). Following our minor estimate revisions, we continue to find the stock attractively valued, and reiterate our BUY and NOK54 target price.

Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK53.00) - Record-high sales

While Gentian enjoyed a currency tailwind, it continued to report steady growth and Q2 saw record-high sales. Its NT-proBNP efforts are still progressing, but the outcome remains uncertain. We have made limited estimate revisions and continue to consider Gentian attractively valued. We reiterate our BUY and NOK53 target price.

Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK53.00) - Things moving in the right d...

With increasing supporting scientific evidence, greater customer interest and progress in product development, we continue to consider the stock attractively valued. Following minor estimate revisions, we have raised our target price to NOK53 (52) and reiterate our BUY.

Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK52.00) - Steady growth

Gentian continues to deliver steady growth; 2022 product sales growth was c22% YOY, and total revenues were NOK112m, in line with our expectation. We have made limited estimate revisions and continue to consider Gentian attractively valued. We reiterate our BUY and NOK52 target price.

Northern Lights

Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK52.00) - Uncertainty weighs

Uncertainty weighs

Northern Lights

Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Largely on track

With Q3 sales in line, the announcement of a new partnership, and the successful onboarding of a recently announced partnership, we see many positives. The NT-proBNP efforts are progressing, but the outcome is still uncertain. Despite this, we consider Gentian attractively valued and reiterate our BUY and NOK90 target price.

Northern Lights

Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Many positives

We find Gentian’s Q2 report contained many positives including: 1) record-high sales of NOK30.1m; 2) a new distribution agreement for Cystatin C; 3) completed extension of lab and production facilities; and 4) progress in the optimisation efforts for NT-proBNP. While we now estimate a commercial launch for NT-proBNP in Q1 2024, with a 50% probability, we consider Gentian attractive even without this product. We keep our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK90 (92) on the continued optimisati...

Northern Lights

Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK92.00) - Growth, but NT-proBNP concer...

Total revenues were slightly below our estimate in Q1. However, product sales grew 6% organically YOY. While Cystatin C and fCAL were still the main sales drivers, the highest growth was seen in ‘other products’. With another recent partnership and a growing market, we expect continued sales growth. However, we note the uncertainty around development of NT-proBNP, a key product for the company to reach its long-term sales ambition in our view. We reiterate our BUY and NOK92 target price.

Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK92.00) - NT-proBNP set for delay

Following further delays to the commercial launch of NT-proBNP and Q4 sales somewhat below our expectation, we have updated our assumptions. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to NOK92 (96).

Gentian Diagnostics (Buy, TP: NOK96.00) - Partnership supports growth ...

We expect limited impact from Omicron on sales in Q4, seasonally a strong quarter. In other news, Gentian announced yesterday it has entered into a global distribution contract with Siemens Healthineers for GCAL®. Following a change of analyst, but with minimal changes to our estimates, we reiterate our BUY and NOK96 target price.