reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Rumours that Middle East Sovereign Wealth Funds are bid...
Various Middle Eastern Newspapers have reported that both QIA and ADIA are in early stage talks to buy the Indian Govt’s stake in VIL. We see this as a bearish development for the other Indian telcos, and potentially for VIL too.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q1 FY25 review: Slower mobile with modest rise in margi...
Indian mobile revenue rose steadily despite slowing this quarter due to softer ARPU trend. Both Bharti and Jio continue to take share from Vodafone Idea again. Mobile EBITDA kept ahead of topline with all three seeing YoY improvements in margin. Overall, Bharti remained ahead on both metrics.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Bharti follows Jio with price hikes, but perhaps not as...
Bharti has immediately followed Jio's price hike announcement, with an announcement that it is set to raise its mobile prices by between 10% and 21%. We calculate the average increase is slightly lower than Jio. The change would be effective from 3rd July too which means the full impact of the tariff hike would only be felt from Q3 FY25.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Price hikes priced in?
Jio leads India's first mobile hike since December 2021; we expect peers to follow. The announcement was made after the conclusion of the spectrum auction where Jio only participated modestly. This is thus structurally positive. However, that both Bharti and VIL are trading down on this news is indicative of how much good news is already priced into Indian mobile. Our thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile India's auction concludes - Our final thoughts
India's spectrum auction concluded yesterday with 141.4 MHz of airwaves being sold across the 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz and 2500 MHz band for INR 113 bn (US$ 1.36bn). Our proprietary spectrum analytics tool (SpectrumHub) suggests that prices paid were largely in line with the reserve prices, and close to our original expectations.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Indian Spectrum Auction – Day 1 results confirm modest ...
After further ado, India entered its 10th spectrum auction yesterday with 10,523 MHz of airwaves worth INR 963bn (US$ 11.3 bn), at reserve prices. While Jio has no renewals until 2030, both Bharti and Vodafone Idea have some of their 900 MHz and 1800 MHz band up for renewals this year, in six and two circles respectively. Preliminary analysis suggests that bidding will take on a modest tone unlike in 2022, as validated by Day 1's results, and as we expected. Our thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel, Airtel Africa & Singtel At $100bn, downgrade Bharti Ai...
Bharti crossing $100bn market cap makes us address the question of which parts of the Bharti/Singtel/Airtel Africa capital structure are most attractive. Bharti has the momentum, but the valuation gap is now extreme. Reversion to the mean will likely happen at some point which means sensible investors in Bharti should now be switching into Singtel (for yield) or Airtel Africa (for growth).
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Vodafone IDEA (Reduce, TP: INR 5, -63%) Vodafone Idea approves USD 2....
Yesterday, Vodafone Idea's board approved INR 200bn (USD 2.4bn) in equity raise to fund its 4G expansion and 5G rollout. After the equity raise, the company then wants to attempt to raise a further c. INR 250bn in debt. In aggregate, therefore the company is hoping to raise INR 450bn (USD 5.4bn). Even if successful (we are sceptical), we do not think this is enough. Shares were down sharply by 14% today. Our thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos Are the price wars finally over?
For 15 years, EM Telcos were engaged in a war for market share, with price the primary weapon. But peace is now breaking out globally. Mobile prices are rising across global EM (India, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand among others). In this note, we analyze which markets have the greatest potential for recovery, based on 3 criteria: affordability, market structure and challenger returns.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Indian Mobile Q3 FY23 review: Fundamentals intact, stay bullish on Bh...
India’s telecom fundamentals remained healthy in Q3, despite the slowdown in service revenue as the effect of last year’s price increase lapsed. EBITDA trend improved again, while capex intensity is expected to stay elevated to support 5G and rural rollout.
- Chris Hoare
Vodafone IDEA (Reduce, TP: INR 8, -5%) Our Take: Government equity co...
Last Friday, the Ministry of Communications and Information approved for Vodafone Idea to convert its dues to the government (interest related to spectrum and adjusted gross revenue (AGR)) into Rs 161.3 bn of shares. Moreover, the Indian press reported that the firm is now tapping on banks for further fund raising. As a result, shares rose 10%+ today. Our take below.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
New Street: Indian Mobile What to expect in 2023: Enterprise drives g...
Bharti has performed extremely well over the last 2 years. While we remain bullish, we think that some of the near term upside is priced in, especially on the consumer mobile side. We stay bullish long term but having had a good run into the end of the year, we expect the stock to take a breather in the near term.
- Aliasgar Shakir
MOSL : VODAFONE IDEA: Big loss continues. VODAFONE IDEA: Big loss con...
. VODAFONE IDEA: Big loss continues (IDEA IN, Mkt Cap USD3.5b, CMP INR8.7, TP INR9, 1% Upside, Neutral) IDEA saw a healthy 7% QoQ growth in adjusted EBITDA (on a pre-Ind AS 116 basis) to INR21b on an ARPU growth of 3%. But declining gross/active subscriber continued at an accelerated pace, with net debt ballooning to INR1.98t. The subscriber churn continues, despite the relief package of FY22. Its annualized EBITDA of INR84b in 1QFY23 may not be sufficient to meet: a) its INR87b in debt re...
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Indian Mobile Slightly slower quarter, next quarter set t...
Q3 was a slightly slower quarter overall for the Indian telco market. However, the market continued to post double digit growth and we started to see in this quarter’s ARPU the benefits from the late November/early December price revisions.
- Chris Hoare
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