Expecting Solid Deliveries Next Week from Musk & Co......Mojo is Back ...

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

Vermilion Booster Shots: Attractive bottom-fishing stocks

For investors looking for bottom-fishing candidates; stocks that are breaking downtrends, exhibiting ascending reaction lows, and showing stabilizing relative strength.

Tesla Deliveries: China drives growth; steady share gains in the rest ...

Tesla reports 3Q24 deliveries next week.

PSA Technology / Semiconductors: Micron and the AI Bubble

Micron’s FY24 results are a reminder that the chip industry is still doing well. Pelham Smithers considers what is reflected in the shares price of the wafer fab equipment makers and highlights two Japanese plays that offer undemanding valuations.

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

China IT Hardware: Takeaways from recent company visits; maintain OVER...

We recently visited UBTech and BYDE in Shenzhen. Both companies are actively developing AI-driven products for industrial use cases, and both are starting to see real demand for AI-driven applications with small-batch shipments from clients or for internal uses. However, the development of humanoid robots and industrial GenAI will likely take a couple of years before it becomes more viable, due to reliability issues and constraints on hardware.

The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 2Q24

We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 224 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.

China IT Hardware: Maintain preference for the more defensive AI-devic...

1H24 results are mixed. AI infrastructure-related businesses remain robust, with solid guidance for 2H24-25, but the market’s high expectations, mounting geopolitical tensions and a lack of long-term visibility have capped upside in the near term. As such, we continue to prefer AI-device names as we expect more meaningful developments in the edge-AI ecosystem throughout 2H24 thanks to new hardware and OS launches. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: Xiaomi and Lenovo.

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, September 11, 2024

GREATER CHINA Economics Trade Exports rebounded in August but outlook remains challenging. Sector IT Hardware Maintain preference for the more defensive AI-device plays as uncertainty remains high. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. INDONESIA Update Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/HOLD/Rp7,250/Target: Rp7,760) 7M24: Strong ...

August Sales Review

Panasonic Holdings Corporation: Deepening EV battery tie-ups improve g...

The decision to increase cooperation with Subaru and Mazda in EV batteries will improve diversification without increasing leverage, a credit positive.

Palo Alto Networks Inc: 2 directors

Two Directors at Palo Alto Networks Inc sold/sold after exercising options 2,700 shares at 359.070USD. The significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's dire...

Bible 2Q24 – Autos: Semis at the trough of the cycle, while end demand...

Today, we are publishing the Automotive section of our 24th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on PCs, Enterprise IT, and Ride sharing & Delivery. Automotive demand is slowing and dealer inventories are elevated. This is likely to be only a limited head...

Blackwell delays, AI ROI, custom silicon, and more. Tech Weekly Wrap-u...

As always, during earnings season, we start the week with a wrap-up of what happened in the previous week.

Xiaomi’s EV, Auto & Industrial cycle, Uber/Cruise, and more. Tech Week...

As always, during earnings season, we start the week with a wrap-up of what happened in the previous week.

China Strategy: Cross currents.

In our base case, we expect the MSCI China index to range trade for the rest of 2024 due to uncertainties over the duration of economic adjustment. Upside risk comes from the start of the Fed’s easing cycle as it opens the way for further monetary easing in China. But this should be complemented by demand-side policies for greater impact. In the meantime, we have a barbell strategy, preferring TMT, tech hardware and defensives like banks, communication services and utilities.  Pricing in slowe...

Bible 2Q24 – Industrials: Recovering slowly

Industrial semiconductor revenues were down 25% YoY in 2Q24 and grew only 1% sequentially. While sequential growth is expected going forward, many segments of the industrials end-market remain weak and customer inventories are still elevated, slowing the pace of any recovery. We nevertheless remain bullish on the secular opportunity in industrial semis, particularly for power semis which will benefit from the persistent momentum of deployments in renewables in the coming years.

Wolfspeed 4FQ24: Steps in the right direction, but scale concerns rema...

Wolfspeed reported 4FQ24 yesterday.

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): 2Q24: EV margins a strong beat; more catalysts ...

Xiaomi’s 2Q24 net profit is another strong beat, primarily due to a much higher-thanexpected profitability for the EV business, while IoT and internet service’s margins also surprised on the upside. Going forward, we believe the strong beat in EV margins and the 2H24 product launch will be key positive catalysts for its share price. Maintain BUY and lift target price to HK$23.70.