reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Sarana Menara Nusantara (Buy, IDR 780, +18%) Q2 25 Quick Take: YTD pe...
TOWR saw a slower revenue trend in Q2 across all segments, except for Tower which maintained growth at just under 3%. This was aided by the consolidation of IBST in 3Q24. Although YTD performance is still aligned with the full year’s guidance, there is risk of further slowdown as it laps the IBST consolidation next quarter if the pace of non-Towers growth remains unchanged.
- Chris Hoare
Mitratel (Buy, IDR 740, +30%) Q2 25 Quick Take: Momentum expected to ...
Trends improved in Q2, supported by strong tower orders from Telkomsel and Indosat – largely driven by ex-Java rollout. Management appears upbeat on second half momentum, underpinned by the BTS pipeline and potential fiber M&A deals. Guidance was maintained.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Towers - A Consistent Approach to EFCF and Shareholder Remun...
Following a similar note we published on the EM Telco sector, we apply the same consistent approach to Equity FCF for Global EM Towers. We have preferred Telcos over Towers for some time, as the drivers of upside for the Telcos (consolidation and declining capital intensity) is a headwind for the Towers.
- Chris Hoare
EM Towers Q1 CY25 review: Steady as she goes
Tower revenue trends were slower across the board except for India’s Indus Tower as it benefited from VIL’s network catch up spend. However, EBITDA margins are improving except in Indonesia which faces the near-term pressure of the XL-Smartfren consolidation.
- Chris Hoare
Sarana Menara Nusantara (Buy, IDR 1,500, +165%) Q1 25 Quick Take: Slo...
TOWR reported on Friday evening. Tower revenue growth slowed and we expect this to continue over the near term as a result of consolidation. To some extent, this will be offset by growing contribution from FTTT and FTTH businesses as telcos expand into the home broadband and into rural Indonesia.
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos: Consolidation – THE theme driving improved trends for EM T...
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
- Chris Hoare
IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $7.7, +41%) – Q1 25: Strong start to the year; Rw...
IHS Towers has reported a strong set of result. Revenue and EBITDA came in above consensus by quite some margin and Q1 numbers trended above the FY25 guide across the board. The company has also announced the sale of its Operations in Rwanda.
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 1Q25: EBITDA Stable At -0.8% qoq
In 1Q25, the combined EBITDA of Indonesia’s big telcos dropped 6% yoy, but was stable qoq. Combined 1Q25 NPAT was also slightly lower (2% yoy). Among the big three telcos, ISAT and Telkomsel (majority owned by TLKM) gained market share in 1Q25 (based on EBITDA) vs 4Q24. We are monitoring TLKM’s upcoming AGM (27 May) as we expect a potential dividend yield of around 7% (assuming an 80% payout). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the telecommunications sector with ISAT as our top pick.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Chris Hoare
Mitratel (Buy, IDR 1,135, +90%) Q1 25 Quick Take: Slow start
Mitratel saw a slower start to the year than expected as Tower trends softened on lower ARP/Tenant. While Fiber remained the key driver, it was partially offset by the natural decline of its Reseller business. EBITDA growth was also slower while earnings managed a 1% growth.
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 4Q24: NPAT Down Slightly By 2% yoy
Big Telcos’ 4Q24 EBITDA was roughly stable (-0.2%) qoq, but declined slightly by 4% yoy Meanwhile, combined 4Q24 net profit fell slightly by 2% yoy, but rose 11% qoq. During 4Q24, EXCL slightly increased its market share (based on EBITDA) among the top three telcos. We downgrade the telecommunications sector to MARKET WEIGHT from OVERWEIGHT as we expect TLKM, the parent company of Telkomsel (market leader), to book only a slightly moderate top-line growth of 2% yoy in 2025. Our top pick is ISAT.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Sunny Chen
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, April 25, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb12.72/Target: Rmb17.80) 2024: Satisfactory results; expects strong recovery in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb50.96/Target: Rmb83.00) 4Q24: Earnings up 38.5% yoy, in line. Maintain BUY with target price unchanged at Rmb83.00. TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$9.36/Target: US$14.00) 4QFY25: Earnings miss amid ramped-up investments in AI-powered learning. INDONESIA Sector Telecommun...
IZZ TAL EDUCATION GROUP SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ISAT INDOSAT
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
TMB TMB BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BH BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
TCAP THANACHART CAPITAL PCL
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
KTB KONTOOR BRANDS
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Friday, April 25, 2025
Telecommunications: 4Q24: NPAT down slightly by 2% yoy. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,475/Target: Rp10,500): 1Q25: Net profit grows 9.8% yoy on the back of NIM expansion. TRADERS’ CORNER Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ): Technical BUY Indosat (ISAT IJ): Technical BUY
- Chris Hoare
IHS (Buy, TP: US$7.7, +80%) - Investor Call Feedback - 31st March 2025
We had a bullish call last week with IHS CFO, Steve Howden, and Head of IR Robert Berg. Despite tariff-related chaos the stock has performed well recently (+50% ytd) reflecting the better environment in Nigeria as well as action the company itself has taken to improve value, but we still think it looks undervalued and retain our Buy recommendation and US$7.7 price target.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Sarana Menara Nusantara (Buy, IDR 1,500, +156%) Q4 24 Quick Take: Supp...
Numbers were decent off its higher growth adjacent businesses where non-Tower contribution now stands at 33% of sales. While near-term tower headwind is anticipated now that the merger between XL and Smartfren is approved, TOWR’s exposure to FTTT and FTTH should act as support as telcos expand into the home broadband and into rural Indonesia.
- Chris Hoare
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