reports
- Chris Hoare
EMEA & African Telcos & Towers - High Yield Review – Initiate Coverage...
Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.
- Chris Hoare
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: Trailing JCI’s Strong Showing In Aug 24
The JCI rallied strongly in Aug 24, rising 10.7%. 5.0% of the return was due to the rupiah appreciation. The strong rally caused our portfolio to underperform despite our portfolio delivering a 7.6% increase. Over the past 10 years, the return of the JCI in September averaged -1.62%. Considering the 10.7% return of the JCI in Aug 24, it might be wise to be slightly defensive in Sep 24. Thus, add ICBP and TOWR. Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR.
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 2Q24: 11% yoy Growth In Core Profit
The combined EBITDA of TLKM, ISAT and EXCL grew 5% yoy in 2Q24. ARPU of ISAT and EXCL rose 5% yoy and 6% yoy respectively, while the ARPU of TLKM’s subsidiary for the cellular business (Telkomsel) declined 10% yoy. During 2Q24, ISAT gained a little market share (based on EBITDA) among the top three telcos, partly because it managed to expand its EBITDA margin slightly (2Q24: 49% vs 1Q24: 47%). Maintain OVERWEIGHT with EXCL as our top pick.
- Hendri Effendi
- Paula Ruth
- Chris Hoare
IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $8, +158%) Q2 24: Solid quarter and encouraging ...
IHS Towers has reported a solid set of Q2 results. Organic top line growth has seen a strong acceleration, driven by Nigeria, while margins improved nicely too. There was no new news regarding the strategic review. However, the company made a key announcement last week about the contract renewals with MTN Nigeria (HERE).
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +73%) IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $8, +167%) MTN and I...
Both MTN Nigeria and IHS Nigeria have announced the renewal and extension of all their MLAs in Nigeria, including new financial terms. This development is materially positive for both companies in our view. This means all MLAs in Africa between MTN and IHS have now been renewed and extended. Separately, MTN has also announced the exit from Guinea-Bissau.
- Chris Hoare
Mitratel (Buy, TP: IDR1,135, +73%) Q2 24: YTD EBITDA tracking ahead
Mitratel reported better trends this quarter, supported by its Fiber and Tower operations (acquired 803 towers from PT Gametraco Tunggal in December 2023). EBITDA continue to rise ahead of revenue leading to improvements in margins again. Against consensus and guidance (high-single digit), 1H revenue (+7.7%) is in line while EBITDA (+10%) stays ahead.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Jonathan Koh
- Kate Luang
- Ken Lee
- Paula Ruth
- Philip Wong
- Singapore Research Team
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, July 04, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Plover Bay Technologies. Sector Automobile Weekly: Sales of top 12 EV brands up 38% wow last week, in line. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL and Tuopu. Top SELL: XPeng. INDONESIA Update Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ/BUY/Rp745/Target: Rp890) Number of towers to jump 10% on a...
300014 EVE ENERGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
5225 IHH HEALTHCARE BHD.
S63 SINGAPORE TECHNOLOGIES ENGINEERING LTD
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
U11 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD. (SINGAPORE)
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
BH BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
BCH BANGKOK CHAIN HOSPITAL PCL
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
SPRC STAR PETROLEUM REFINING
VALUE VALUE8 N.V.
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
327 PAX GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY
FEHT FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
KPJ KPJ HEALTHCARE BERHAD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
RFMD RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
DBB DUOPHARMA BIOTECH BHD
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
1772 PAX GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY LTD
FRKN GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
3606 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
603305 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
MPM NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
002920 MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
CLI HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
2232 CAPITALAND INVESTMENT LTD
Z29 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
02015 029 GROUP SE
09868 LI AUTO INC
600699 XPENG INC
1523 NINGBO JOYSON ELECTRONIC CORP
PLOVER BAY TECHNOLOGIES LTD (1523 HK)
- Paula Ruth
Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ) - Number Of Towers To Jump 10% On Ac...
The impact on TOWR’s acquisition on IBST are as followed: a) TOWR’s number of towers jumping 10% on the acquisition of IBST, b) 24% yoy growth from FTTT and connectivity revenue, c) potential EBITDA of Rp700b on the acquisition of IBST (6% to our 2025 EBITDA), and d) Negative NPAT from IBST might lower TOWR 2025 NPAT. We lower our target price from Rp1,200 to Rp950 as the stock has derated and it might be difficult to reach the Rp1,200 target price. Maintain BUY.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Chris Hoare
EM Towers Q1 CY24 review: Better overall; trimmed price targets for I...
The outperformer this quarter was China Tower, with stronger trends across the board. Indus continues to grow at a faster pace, but we think the market is too optimistic on Indus’ ability to turn this into cash as it is driven by single tenancy towers. In Indonesia the big news is that XL and Smartfren are in talks which has the potential to be significant for both TBIG and TOWR, and so despite better trends we downgrade price targets
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – Positive Seasonality To Support 2Q24 Results; Mai...
Telkomsel utilised its CVM programme to raise its data pricing in Apr-May 24. This includes a seasonal price hike (around 3-5%) during Eid al-Fitr in 2024, when demand for data services was higher vs normal days. EXCL recently launched a new data package BP with localised offerings (37-50% of total quota). We still expect a slight positive seasonal impact from Eid al-Fitr on telcos’ 2Q24 performance. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector with XL Axiata as our top pick.
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Paula Ruth
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, June 11, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade May exports grew 7.6%; imports moderated. Sector Property Property prices further drop after 17 May 24 policy combo; effective implementation of policies crucial for market stabilisation. INDONESIA Sector Telecommunications Pos...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
PTT PTT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
IRPC IRPC PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ISAT INDOSAT
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
IVL INDORAMA VENTURES PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
SCC SIAM CEMENT PUBLIC CO. LTD.
PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PLC
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
PTG PTG ENERGY
SPRC STAR PETROLEUM REFINING
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
SOP SARAWAK OIL PALMS BERHAD
KIML KIM LOONG RESOURCES BHD
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
IOI IOI CORP BHD
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
GENP GENTING PLANTATIONS BHD
HAPL HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BHD
OR PTT OIL & RETAIL BUSINESS PCL
EXCL XL AXIATA (EXCELCOMINDO)
688536 3PEAK INCORPORATED
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
Z29 029 GROUP SE
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 1Q24 EBITDA Up 9% yoy; EXCL Showed Slight Gain In...
The combined EBITDA and net profit of TLKM, ISAT, and EXCL was up by 9% yoy (4% qoq) and 4% yoy (3% qoq) respectively, despite more signs of competition in 1Q24. EXCL showed a slight gain in market share (based on 1Q24 EBITDA) among the top 3 telcos, partly thanks to EBITDA margin expansion. The upcoming Eid al-Fitr festive season could bring a slightly positive seasonality to telcos’ 2Q24 performance. Maintain OVERWEIGHT with EXCL as our top pick.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Chris Hoare
IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $8, +144%) Q1 24: Slower growth (as expected), i...
IHS Towers has reported a slower quarter as expected. Top line performance was solid and came in ahead of expectations, but EBITDA growth was below expectations. Capex this quarter is well below historic levels as the company is now focused on cash generation and rebuilding the balance sheet. As a result, OpFCF margins improved.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Ariel Poh Yun Li
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Paula Ruth
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, May 07, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Expect sales improvement in May on low base; watch PBOC’s and NDRC’s actions in 2Q24; add Longfor to top picks. Results Estun Automation (002747 CH/SELL/Rmb16.64/Target: Rmb14.00): 4Q23/1Q24: Another two sets of disappointing results; erosion of ASP and margins not over yet. INDONESIA Results Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp880/Target: Rp1,200): 1Q24: NPAT up 29.3% yoy; in line with expectations. Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ/BUY/Rp7,125/Target: Rp8,8...
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
INTP PT INDOCEMENT TUNGGAL PRAKARSA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
ONEE THE ONE ENTERPRISE PCL
SMGR SEMEN INDONESIA PERSERO TBK
ITC I-TAIL CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
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