GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales up wow; NDRC indicates support for ICE-cars. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. IT Hardware Blackwell production ramp accelerating; brace for another year of robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$83.85/Target: HK$90.00) ...
We maintain BUY on EXCL with a new target price of Rp3,200 due to several factors: a) Indonesia’s fibre penetration is underpenetrated compared with the average in Southeast Asian countries, b) EXCL recently became the second-largest player in Indonesia’s FBB market, c) strong NPAT growth of 25% yoy in 2025, and d) EXCL trades at a relatively undemanding valuation (below -0.75SD of EV/EBITDA). EXCL’s 9M24 EBITDA reached Rp 13.3t, in line with our and consensus expectations.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls: Add Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. Add Sinopharm to our SELL list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in Oct 24: Our picks are NCKL, BBTN, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Gearing Up For The Reporting Season: Our Alpha Picks outperformed in Oct 24. Nov 24 picks: EcoWorld, Gamuda, Lagenda, MYEG, Pekat, RGB, RHB Bank, Top Glove, VSI and Yinson...
Our aggressive stance in Oct 24 did not work out, due to softness in bank stocks and weakness in some of our picks. Our portfolio declined by an average of 1.9% compared with the JCI’s 0.6% rise. Winners: ASII (+1.0%), CMRY (+0.9%), CTRA (+0.8%). Losers: SIDO (-8.3%), BMRI (-3.2%), BBTN (-3.1%), BBRI (-3.0%), EXCL (-1.7%), JSMR (-1.6%) and BBNI (-0.9%). We add NCKL and drop SIDO. Our picks are NCKL, BBTN, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII.
Strategy: Alpha Picks: Underperformance in Oct 24: Our picks are NCKL, BBTN, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII. Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp6,650/Target: Rp8,120): 3Q24: Net profit up 11.7% qoq on strong loan growth and lower CoC. Upgrade to BUY. Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ/BUY/Rp1,565/Target: Rp1,800): 3Q24: Core NPAT rises 24% yoy; in line with expectations. Upgrade to BUY. Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/BUY/Rp2,780/Target: Rp4,200): 3Q24: IndiHome, as fixed broadband market leader, gro...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls Add Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. Add Sinopharm to our SELL list. Sector Aviation – China Airlines: 3Q24 earnings a slight miss; expect losses in seasonally weak 4Q24. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Macau Gaming Oct 24 GGR up 7% yoy and...
Mitratel delivered a faster topline and EBITDA trend, backed by healthy colocations and cost efficiencies again. Q4 is expected to slow as the M&A impact from its acquisition of PT Gametraco laps, but given the pace of EBITDA growth thus far (YTD +12%) and consensus at 9% for the full year, the bar is low going into Q4 (implies 2% growth).
Our defensive stance in Sep 24 worked out, and our portfolio delivered an average 1.7% appreciation compared with the JCI’s 1.9% decline. The top three winners were CMRY, ICBP and BBTN. Our portfolio underperformed in 3Q24 but outperformed in 9M24. With an expectation of a buoyant market from October till December, we decide to be more aggressive in our portfolio picks. We drop ICBP and TOWR and add ASII. Our picks are ASII, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls: Adding CATL, Geely and Plover Bay to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Defensive Stance Worked In Sep 24: Our picks are ASII, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: A Variety of Event Drivers: Our Alpha Picks outperforms as hoped. Oct 24 picks: EcoWorld, Gamuda, Lagenda, MYEG, Pekat, RGB, RHB Bank, Sime Darby, VSI and Yinson. SINGAPORE Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperforming ...
We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the telecommunications sector in view of several factors: a) telcos’ 2024/25 mobile data revenue could grow 8%/7% yoy, b) digital channels (penetration ranging from 29% to 55%) could help improve ARPU, c) telcos’ EBITDA growth could reach 8% yoy in 2024 and 4% yoy in 2025, and d) attractive valuation with many telcos trading at -1SD EV/EBITDA. Our top pick is EXCL (BUY/Target: Rp2,900).
GREATER CHINA Commissioned Report ECARX (ECX US/BUY/US$1.75/Target: US$3.40): Making smart electric cars excellent. Initiate coverage with BUY. Target price: US$3.40. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,320/Target: Rp2,900): Acquisition of ServeCo might increase EXCL’s revenue by 8% in 2025. MALAYSIA Sector Gloves: Further tariff hike announced by US authority on China’s medical-grade gloves beginning 2025-26 is poised to revitalise investors’ sentiment. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. SINGAPORE...
We maintain BUY on EXCL with a target price of Rp2,900 due to the following factors: a) EXCL’s plan to acquire ServeCo (LINK’s B2C business) may increase EXCL’s 2025 revenue by 8% and EBITDA by 7%, b) this potential transaction might help to slightly lower 2025 EV/EBITDA (slightly more attractive) to 3.8x, a bit cheaper than -1SD; and c) EXCL has a 10% yoy net profit growth projected for 2025.
We maintain BUY on EXCL with a target price of Rp2,900 as EXCL’s plan to acquire ServeCo (LINK’s B2C business) will be beneficial: a) the number of EXCL’s FBB subscribers and ARPU might increase 279% and 10% respectively, b) EXCL’s position in the FBB industry could improve to no.2 in the market, and c) ServeCo booked a positive bottom line of Rp383b in 6M24.
GREATER CHINA Sector Hong Kong Property Results wrap-up for Hong Kong developers: Navigating the cycle. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,270/Target: Rp2,900) Fixed broadband ARPU might increase by 10% post-acquisition of ServeCo. MALAYSIA Sector Utilities A strong 2Q24 with companies coming in broadly within expe...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect an improving operating performance among selected companies in September, and add AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and TUL to our BUY list and add Li Auto as a SELL. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Trailing The JCI’s Strong Performance In Aug 24: Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Adapting To A Bipolar Market: Our Al...
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