Telkomsel utilised its CVM programme to raise its data pricing in Apr-May 24. This includes a seasonal price hike (around 3-5%) during Eid al-Fitr in 2024, when demand for data services was higher vs normal days. EXCL recently launched a new data package BP with localised offerings (37-50% of total quota). We still expect a slight positive seasonal impact from Eid al-Fitr on telcos’ 2Q24 performance. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector with XL Axiata as our top pick.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Call: Adding KE Holdings and Wharf REIC to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: First Month Of Underperformance In 2024: Our picks are EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Choices For A “Summer Lull”: Our Alpha Picks trounce the KLCI again. May 24 picks: BAUTO, BURSA, Gamuda, GENM, Lagenda, Mah Sing, MYEG, PMETAL, RGB, and VSI. SINGAPORE Strategy Alpha Picks...
GREATER CHINA Sector Property - Hong Kong Limited Downside Risks To Property Price in Near Term; Watch For Policy Support For Hong Kong Tourism. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,320/Target: Rp2,900) 2024 net profit could grow 45% yoy, partly driven by network improvement. MALAYSIA Sector Oil & Gas Petrona...
Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp2,900 based on several factors: a) data traffic to jump 24% yoy in 2024, partly supported by network improvement; b) potential merged entity of EXCL and FREN (MergeCo) might be valued at US$3.5b; c) FREN’s rights issue could help support MergeCo’s balance sheet quality; and d) excluding the impact from the potential merger, EXCL’s 2024 net profit growth (45% yoy) remains attractive.
Our portfolio underperformed for the first time in 2024, delivering a 5.7% decline in May 24 compared with the JCI’s -3.6% return. Recent winners such as ACES and JSMR suffered the largest magnitude of decline, but we view this as an opportunity to add positions as their fundamentals are still positive. We add EXCL for its synergies with FREN and drop AKRA as its land sales could be delayed until 2H24. Our picks are EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR.
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI May 24 PMI back to contraction. Sector Macau Gaming May 24 GGR up 9% mom. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: First Month Of Underperformance In 2024 Our picks are EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, and JSMR. SINGAPORE Strategy Alpha Picks: Strong performance. Add CENT, CVL, SIA...
Indonesian operators posted better trends across the board. Both Indosat and XL continue to benefit from their ex-Java expansion (where prices are typically higher) as their mobile ARPU were up double-digits. Meanwhile, Telkomsel is also recovering with IndiHome maintaining its MSD growth as it moves into the low and mid value segment. Importantly, official announcements suggests that the XL and Smartfren merger is imminent which bodes well for the wider market repair story but is slightly negat...
The combined EBITDA and net profit of TLKM, ISAT, and EXCL was up by 9% yoy (4% qoq) and 4% yoy (3% qoq) respectively, despite more signs of competition in 1Q24. EXCL showed a slight gain in market share (based on 1Q24 EBITDA) among the top 3 telcos, partly thanks to EBITDA margin expansion. The upcoming Eid al-Fitr festive season could bring a slightly positive seasonality to telcos’ 2Q24 performance. Maintain OVERWEIGHT with EXCL as our top pick.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call: Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market: Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Well-Positioned For 1Q Results Season: Our April picks again beat the KLCI. May 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MYEG, Press Meta...
EXCL recorded net profit of Rp539b in 1Q24 (above our and consensus expectations). Maintain BUY and raise target price to Rp2,900 on several factors: a) a gradual increase in ARPU to an all-time level of Rp44,000; b) solid EBITDA growth (24% yoy) with margin expansion; c) an 8% qoq rise in 1Q24 EBITDA, stronger than its peers (Telkomsel and Indosat); and d) good balance sheet quality (1Q24 net debt/EBITDA: 0.6).
Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/BUY/Rp5,250/Target: Rp6,300): 1Q24: Net profit up 2.0% yoy, lower CoC drives net profit growth. Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ/BUY/Rp4,980/Target: Rp5,500): 1Q24: NPAT up 30% yoy – ahead of consensus expectation. PP London Sumatra (LSIP IJ/HOLD/Rp865/Target: Rp930): 1Q24: Results within expectations. Triputra Agro Persada (TAPG IJ/BUY/Rp625/Target: Rp700): 1Q24: Results within expectations. Expect 2Q24 earnings to be higher qoq and yoy. XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/...
GREATER CHINA Sector Macau Gaming Apr 24 GGR down 5% mom; downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.10/Target: HK$6.00) 1Q24: Results in line with better NIM performance. LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH/SELL/Rmb18.20/Target: Rmb14.38) 2023/1Q24: Below expectations; inventory write-down wipes out earnings. Downgrade to SELL. PICC Property and Casualty (2328 HK/BUY/HK$9.71/Target: HK$11.70) 1Q24: Earnings miss on higher COR and lower investment income...
Despite Telkom being hit by a series of one-offs in Q4, industry mobile revenue and ARPU trends are still reflective of the benign competitive landscape. EBITDA also improved for both XL and Indosat, with capex intensity improved across the board. Moreover, recent news flow suggests that the XL and Smartfren merger is closer than before. Finally, we also raised our price target for Indosat to IDR12.5k from IDR11k as we layer on higher broadband revenue as it vies for share in the fixed industry.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Adding AIA, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, with SELL calls on BYD, EVE Energy, and Li Auto. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24: Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Expanding The Variety Of Events Bets: Our Alpha Picks trounced the KLCI in Mar 24. Apr 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MY...
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