reports
- Chris Hoare
- Paula Ruth
XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - XLSmart Estimates Potential Cost Synergies Of US...
XLSmart (the potential merged entity between EXCL and FREN) remains optimistic that it could achieve annual run-rate synergies of US$300m-400m pre-tax after the integration. As part of realising the synergies, XLSmart intends to optimise its network footprint (20-30% of sites overlap) and selectively expand its network. EXCL might propose a dividend of Rp86/share, implying a 3.8% dividend yield. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp3,300.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Damon Shen
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jieqi Liu
- Ken Lee
- Paula Ruth
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, March 12, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Shenzhen and Guangzhou seeing notable improvement in demand-supply dynamics. Results ECARX Holdings Inc (ECX US/BUY/US$2.67/Target: US$3.40) 4Q24: Net loss narrows due to revenue growth. Maintain BUY. Target price: US$3.40. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,260/Target: Rp3,300) XLSmart estimates potential cost synergies of US$300-...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
5168 HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD.
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
7153 KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD.
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
ECX ECARX HOLDINGS INC
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum
- Malaysia Research Team
- Singapore Research Team
- Thailand Research Team
Regional Strategy: Alpha Picks - March 2025
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls: Add Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Desay, JD Logistics, Mengniu, Plover Bay and Tencent. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Feb 25: Our picks are BBNI, BBRI, MIKA, EXCL, KLBF, JSMR and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Unprecedented Combo Of Disappointments: Our Feb 25 Alpha Picks sorely underperformed. Mar 25 picks: 99SpeedMart, Alpha IVF, KPJ Healthcare, MrDIY, MYEG, RHB Ba...
OU8 CENTURION
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
EGCO ELECTRICITY GENERATING PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
3816 MISC BHD
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
SATS SP SATS LTD.
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
CPALL TB CP ALL
SDPL SIME DARBY PLANTATION BHD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
RATCH RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
2013 WEIMOB INC
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
WHA TB WHA CORP PCL
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
CSSC CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
CVL CIVMEC
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
ITC I-TAIL CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
STM SEATRIUM LTD
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
YINSON YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
1523 PLOVER BAY TECHNOLOGIES LTD (1523 HK)
GEELY GEELY AUTOMOBILE
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Feb 25
Our portfolio underperformed in Feb 25, declining 17.1% as JCI dropped 11.8% to a three-year low. There was a sell-off on banking stocks as investors were concerned that being included in Danantara could result in a similar fate to state-owned construction companies. Due to a sharp rise in DCII, IDXTECH outperformed in Feb 25. We remove BMRI, ISAT and CTRA from our portfolio and add MIKA. Our picks are BBNI, BBRI, MIKA, EXCL, KLBF, JSMR and ASII.
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Gigi Cheuk
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jonathan Koh
- Kate Luang
- Ken Lee
- Lester Siew
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Paula Ruth
- Sunny Chen
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, February 07, 2025
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly: Countdown to Plover Bay’s 2024 results: Eyeing final dividend and 2025 outlook. Sector Automobile: Weekly: OEMs post upbeat January sales. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Update Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/HOLD/Rmb12.71/Target: Rmb13.80): Expecting slower growth amid weaker demand, yet outperforming peers. Downgrade to HOLD. INDONESIA Results XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,290/Target: Rp3,300): 4Q24: NPAT jumps 93%...
S68 SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LTD.
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
ESSO ESSO (THAILAND)
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
ROTH BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO BHD
IOI IOI CORP BHD
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
- Paula Ruth
XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - 4Q24: NPAT Jumps 93% yoy
EXCL’s 2024 EBITDA grew 13% yoy to Rp18t, slightly above our but in line with consensus’ full-year forecasts. The company recorded NPAT of Rp1.8t in 2024, above our full-year estimate, but in line with consensus’. EXCL’s fixed broadband subscriber numbers jumped 336% yoy to 1m, after the acquisition of Linknet’s residential customer base was completed (end of 3Q24). We forecast 2025 EBITDA and NPAT potentially growing 5% yoy and 21% yoy respectively. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp3,300.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum
- Malaysia Research Team
- Singapore Research Team
- Thailand Research Team
Regional Strategy: Alpha Picks - February 2025
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls: Add AIA, CR Land, Haier and Han’s Laser to our BUY list. Take profit on Crystal, Geely, Trip.com and Weimob. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Underperformance In Jan 25: Our picks are ISAT, KLBF, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Spotlight On The Upcoming Results Winners: Our Alpha Picks outperformed in Jan 25. Feb 25 picks: Gamuda, GENM, Kossan, MrDIY, MYEG, Pekat, RGB, RHB Bank, VSI...
OU8 CENTURION
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
EGCO ELECTRICITY GENERATING PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
3816 MISC BHD
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
SATS SP SATS LTD.
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
CPALL TB CP ALL
SDPL SIME DARBY PLANTATION BHD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
RATCH RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
2013 WEIMOB INC
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
WHA TB WHA CORP PCL
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
CSSC CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
CVL CIVMEC
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
ITC I-TAIL CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
STM SEATRIUM LTD
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
YINSON YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
1523 PLOVER BAY TECHNOLOGIES LTD (1523 HK)
GEELY GEELY AUTOMOBILE
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: Slight Underperformance In Jan 25
Our portfolio slightly underperformed in Jan 25, delivering a 0% return vs the JCI’s 0.4% gain. The gainers were BBNI (9.7%), BMRI (5.7%), BBRI (3.4%), EXCL (0.9%) and CTRA (0.5%). The losers were CMRY (-9.1%), ISAT (-6.9%), JSMR (-2.3%) and ASII (-2.0%). February tends to be a strong month, delivering an average return of 1.04% with 70% probability. We remove CMRY from our portfolio as it has delivered a -12.7% return since its inclusion. Our picks are ISAT, KLBF, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, ...
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - 2025 Net Income To Grow 25% yoy; Expect Positive...
Axiata and Sinar Mas recently announced the proposed appointment of the Board of Directors of XLSmart (the potential merged entity between EXCL and FREN). The proposed CEO for XLSmart, Rajeev Sethi, comes from Axiata. The estimated annual runrate (pre-tax) synergies could reach US$300m-400m after the integration is completed. EXCL expects the Eid al-Fitr festive season to have a positive seasonal impact on its performance in 1Q25. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp3,200.
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Paula Ruth
- Philip Wong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, January 23, 2025
GREATER CHINA Strategy China Property And China Property Management: Property market marginally cools down before CNY; 2024 earnings preview on COLI/CR Land/COPH. Update Shenzhou International Group Holdings (2313 HK/BUY/HK$57.65 /Target: HK$96.30): Faster-than-expected revenue growth in 2H24 with milder margin expansion. Sunny Optical (2382 HK/BUY/HK$69.85/Target: HK$85.00): Smartphone and automobile businesses to support growth in 2025. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp...
02313 SHENZHOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
LH LAND & HOUSES PUBLIC CO. LTD.
IRPC IRPC PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
SPRC STAR PETROLEUM REFINING
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
KOPI MK ORIENTAL KOPI HOLDINGS BHD
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – Average Data Traffic During Christmas/New Year 20...
EXCL’s holiday data traffic increased 19% vs normal days, higher than ISAT’s (more than 10% on 1 Jan 25). We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the telecommunications sector in view of factors such as: a) rising data traffic, b) relatively resilient demand for telco services, and c) potential industry consolidation which could support data monetisation in the long term. Our top picks are EXCL (BUY/Target: Rp3,200) and ISAT (BUY/Target: Rp3,100).
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum
- Malaysia Research Team
- Singapore Research Team
- Thailand Research Team
Regional Strategy: Alpha Picks – January 2025
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls: Add CATL, JD Logistics, Miniso and Plover Bay to our BUY list, and Weimob to our SELL list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Our Selections Outperform In 2024: Our picks are ISAT, KLBF, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Still Ample Domestic Catalysts: Our Alpha Picks outperformed in Dec 24. Jan 25 picks: Gamuda, GENM, MrDIY, MYEG, Pekat, RGB, RHB Bank, SP Setia, VSI and Yinson. SINGAP...
OU8 CENTURION
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
EGCO ELECTRICITY GENERATING PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
3816 MISC BHD
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
SATS SP SATS LTD.
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
CPALL TB CP ALL
SDPL SIME DARBY PLANTATION BHD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
RATCH RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
2013 WEIMOB INC
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
WHA TB WHA CORP PCL
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
CSSC CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
CVL CIVMEC
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
ITC I-TAIL CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
STM SEATRIUM LTD
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
YINSON YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
1523 PLOVER BAY TECHNOLOGIES LTD (1523 HK)
GEELY GEELY AUTOMOBILE
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: Our Selections Outperform In 2024
Due to the performance in 9M24, our portfolio outperformed in 2024. Our selections recorded a 2.2% return compared with the JCI’s decline 2.7% in 2024. In Dec 24, our selections fell 6.2% while the JCI dropped only 0.5%. We add ISAT and KLBF into our portfolio to add defensiveness and foresee uncertainty in the market. We also triggered our stop-loss and dropped BBTN and NCKL. Our picks are ISAT, KLBF, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII.
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
ISAT INDOSAT TBK PT
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