Trends improved in Q2, supported by strong tower orders from Telkomsel and Indosat – largely driven by ex-Java rollout. Management appears upbeat on second half momentum, underpinned by the BTS pipeline and potential fiber M&A deals. Guidance was maintained.
Following a similar note we published on the EM Telco sector, we apply the same consistent approach to Equity FCF for Global EM Towers. We have preferred Telcos over Towers for some time, as the drivers of upside for the Telcos (consolidation and declining capital intensity) is a headwind for the Towers.
Tower revenue trends were slower across the board except for India’s Indus Tower as it benefited from VIL’s network catch up spend. However, EBITDA margins are improving except in Indonesia which faces the near-term pressure of the XL-Smartfren consolidation.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls: Add Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit on JBM Healthcare and CR Land. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Apr 25: Remove ICBP, EXCL and MIKA; add BBTN and GOTO. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Capitalising On Sentiment Turnaround: Our Apr 25 Alpha Picks underperformed. May 25 picks: Duopharma, Gamuda, IJM, IOI Properties, TIME dotCom, MYEG, Nationgate, Northeast Group and RHB Bank. SINGAPO...
Mitratel saw a slower start to the year than expected as Tower trends softened on lower ARP/Tenant. While Fiber remained the key driver, it was partially offset by the natural decline of its Reseller business. EBITDA growth was also slower while earnings managed a 1% growth.
Big Telcos’ 4Q24 EBITDA was roughly stable (-0.2%) qoq, but declined slightly by 4% yoy Meanwhile, combined 4Q24 net profit fell slightly by 2% yoy, but rose 11% qoq. During 4Q24, EXCL slightly increased its market share (based on EBITDA) among the top three telcos. We downgrade the telecommunications sector to MARKET WEIGHT from OVERWEIGHT as we expect TLKM, the parent company of Telkomsel (market leader), to book only a slightly moderate top-line growth of 2% yoy in 2025. Our top pick is ISAT.
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb12.72/Target: Rmb17.80) 2024: Satisfactory results; expects strong recovery in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb50.96/Target: Rmb83.00) 4Q24: Earnings up 38.5% yoy, in line. Maintain BUY with target price unchanged at Rmb83.00. TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$9.36/Target: US$14.00) 4QFY25: Earnings miss amid ramped-up investments in AI-powered learning. INDONESIA Sector Telecommun...
Telecommunications: 4Q24: NPAT down slightly by 2% yoy. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,475/Target: Rp10,500): 1Q25: Net profit grows 9.8% yoy on the back of NIM expansion. TRADERS’ CORNER Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ): Technical BUY Indosat (ISAT IJ): Technical BUY
Against weak comps, trends improved, but fundamentally the picture remains challenged. The announced share buyback (IDR 3trn, 1.2% of outstanding) is welcome but probably won’t on its own be sufficient to turn the picture around. PT Telkom has disappointed with headwinds outside of Java and in Indihome. We remain Buyers on valuation but there is little in the trends here to suggest an operational turnaround is close.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Add CR Beer, Desay, JBM Healthcare, JD Logistics, Minth, WuXi App Tech and Xiaomi Corp to our BUY list. Take profit on AIA, Hansoh Pharma, JD and Zijin Mining. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25: Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Pockets of Opportunities: Our Mar 25 Alpha Picks outperform. Apr 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Duopharma, IJM, IOI Properties, TIME...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...
Our portfolio in Mar 25 outperformed relative to the JCI and LQ45 by +3.3%/+2.7% respectively (simple average). In terms of the weighted average free float market cap, the portfolio outperformed the JCI and LQ45 by +10.9%/+10.3% respectively due to a large rebound in BBRI. We remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF, and add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA to our portfolio. Given Trump’s 32% reciprocal tariffs on Indonesia, our portfolio picks lean towards defensive stocks: BBCA, ICBP, ERAA, EXCL, MIKA,...
XLSmart (the potential merged entity between EXCL and FREN) remains optimistic that it could achieve annual run-rate synergies of US$300m-400m pre-tax after the integration. As part of realising the synergies, XLSmart intends to optimise its network footprint (20-30% of sites overlap) and selectively expand its network. EXCL might propose a dividend of Rp86/share, implying a 3.8% dividend yield. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp3,300.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Shenzhen and Guangzhou seeing notable improvement in demand-supply dynamics. Results ECARX Holdings Inc (ECX US/BUY/US$2.67/Target: US$3.40) 4Q24: Net loss narrows due to revenue growth. Maintain BUY. Target price: US$3.40. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,260/Target: Rp3,300) XLSmart estimates potential cost synergies of US$300-...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls: Add Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Desay, JD Logistics, Mengniu, Plover Bay and Tencent. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Feb 25: Our picks are BBNI, BBRI, MIKA, EXCL, KLBF, JSMR and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Unprecedented Combo Of Disappointments: Our Feb 25 Alpha Picks sorely underperformed. Mar 25 picks: 99SpeedMart, Alpha IVF, KPJ Healthcare, MrDIY, MYEG, RHB Ba...
Our portfolio underperformed in Feb 25, declining 17.1% as JCI dropped 11.8% to a three-year low. There was a sell-off on banking stocks as investors were concerned that being included in Danantara could result in a similar fate to state-owned construction companies. Due to a sharp rise in DCII, IDXTECH outperformed in Feb 25. We remove BMRI, ISAT and CTRA from our portfolio and add MIKA. Our picks are BBNI, BBRI, MIKA, EXCL, KLBF, JSMR and ASII.
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