MARKET COMMENT - MOSCOW TRADING REMAINS HALTED WHILE EYES REMAIN ON UKRAINERussian stocks continued to see only slight trading through Russia's long weekend. That will not change today, with the CBR having decided yesterday not to allow Moscow equity trading, continuing the halt since February 25 for a sixth business day.STORIES> How the crisis is evolving> US and UK seeking to embargo Russian oil and gas imports> Gazprom's export flows remain very strong> Rostelecom posts neutral 4Q21 IFRS resu...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗСША и Великобритания вводят эмбарго на импорт нефти и газа из России, экспортные доходы Газпрома растут, Ростелеком, HeadHunter, Магнит и М. Видео представили отчетность.НОВОСТИ> Как развивается кризис> США и Великобритания вводят эмбарго на импорт нефти и газа из России> Экспортные доходы Газпрома растут> Ростелеком представил нейтральные результаты за 4К21 по МСФО> Вопрос о погашении облигаций Яндекса и Ozon> HeadHunter: результаты за 4К21 несколько ниже прогнозов, выкуп а...
HeadHunter (HHR US, U/R) reported 4Q21 results and provided an update on the impact of geopolitical developments. Revenue and EBITDA were up 85-91% y/y coming broadly in line with consensus and 6-5% above our more conservative projections. All segments showed strong performance with expected normalization of growth comparing to Q3. 2021 revenue increased by 93% y/y, thus, outpacing company’s guidance (+81-84% y/y). The management highlighted solid financial flexibility (0.1x Net debt/EBITDA a...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented dislocations of capital and resources, on top of human tragedies. The sanctions imposed, by the world’s key nations, on Russia, its politicians, institutions, companies and businessmen, as well as the counter-measures introduced by the Russian government, are wide-ranging and continue to be imposed on a daily basis. The most severe sanctions are related to the freezing of the CBR’s FX reserves, as well as the freezing of non-residents’ assets...
MARKET COMMENT - WORST ONE-DAY DECLINE IN RTS HISTORY AS MARKET REACHES 2008 VALUATIONSThe RTS fell 38% to 743 in its worst one-day decline in history. The forward P/E of 2.6 has not been seen since 2008. Gaps have opened up between local and foreign listings following the obvious rise in volatility and Moscow Exchange's ban on short selling, while RTS futures are up 14%. The US, UK and EU announced relevant new sanctions last night, while news flow remains dominated by developments between Russ...
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: targeting the "mum on a budget" (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Tekfen Holding: 4Q21 results - big miss, due to provision hits on E&C front NEGATIVE • PKO BP: 2021 results - solid delivery and guidance for 4%+ of 2021 DPS NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: earnings hit by a one-off provision, but robust recovery underneath NEUTRAL • Allegro: minor miss in 4Q21 on costs of deliveries, constructive FY22E outlook NEUTRAL • Magyar Telekom: 4Q21 results - 4% yoy EBITDA growth, ...
HEADLINES: • Russian technology: on-the-ground intelligence (HeadHunter, Ozon, QIWI, VK, Yandex) • Transelectrica: lower-than-expected 4Q21 net loss NEGATIVE • EME Strategy: MSCI monitoring Russian equity universe in wake of potential sanctions NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: NAV per share up 2.4% mom, to RON 2.3161, as of end-January NEUTRAL • Polish banks: Bank Pekao and Bank Handlowy receive P2G Tier 1 capital buffer requirements from KNF • O2 Czech Republic: coverage discontinued • Mobile...
With this report, we launch our new monthly publication on the Russian technology sector, in which we will track the key data and sector developments. We will analyse publicly-available information and use our proprietary “channel checks” (e.g., hiring a taxi, online product ordering) to get leading indications of companies’ performances and their major products. We plan to add more data points and analysis over time. We welcome your feedback.
HEADLINES: • Russian Technology: fortune favours the brave (Yandex, HeadHunter, Ozon and QIWI stay BUY; VK upgraded to BUY) • Otokar: 4Q21 results - strong top-down beat, led by the defence segment POSITIVE • NLB Group: new SREP requirements • Gazprom: signs a 10bcm supply contract with China POSITIVE • Rosneft: to supply 10mt to China via Kazakhstan POSITIVE • Magnit: 4Q21 conference call - key takeaways NEUTRAL • Electrica: Oltchim's final table of debts shows a lower level of claims for El...
Following a sell-off in the Russian technology sector, we have taken a fresh look at each company to identify the best risk/reward opportunities, including downside risks in the case of new sanctions and rising geopolitical tensions. With 78% average upside to our PTs, the Russian technology sector offers a rare opportunity to buy quality stocks at a huge discount, in our view.
The Russian stock market has declined over 11% since the start of the year and is off 27% since its highs in October 2021, on the new phase of geopolitical escalation. Assuming that open military conflict is avoided, Russian stocks are attractively priced, especially in the context of rising commodity prices. It is hard, if not impossible, to call the bottom in this market, and we do not attempt to forecast if and when the process of de-escalation could start. Generally, we have observed, many t...
EME Equity Market – November 2021 Market performance – most markets down, with Czech PX Index (+3.0%) the exception. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 8.9% in EUR terms and 10.7% in USD in November. Prague’s PX Index added 3.0% in EUR terms and 2.3% in local currency, followed by the Romanian BET Index, which declined 3.2% in both EUR and RON terms. Greece’s ASE Index declined by 3.4% in EUR terms, while Hungary’s BUX Index declined by 6.2% in EUR and 5.0% in HUF. The Russian MOEX Index declined 8.6...
HEADLINES: • HeadHunter: entering the gig economy (stays BUY) • GTC: share price detached from earnings (stays BUY) • Bank of Cyprus: a visible turnaround (stays BUY) • PZU: posts solid set of 3Q21 results, but in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Tauron: 3Q21 results review - fully in line with prelims NEUTRAL • Nexters: 3Q21 financial results review NEUTRAL • Mobile TeleSystems: 3Q21 - decent results, 5% yoy OIBDA growth; 2021E OIBDA growth guidance upped NEUTRAL • Mobile TeleSystems: key ta...
We continue to like HeadHunter for its undeniable pricing power, network effects and operational efficiency, clearly supported by the recent financial results. Although the shares have rallied by 24% since our latest report, published in August, we believe there is more upside to this story. We have increased our 12-month price target (PT) to USD 79, from USD 59. The key growth drivers for HeadHunter should be monetisation initiatives, growth in SMEs and, most importantly, the expansion into new...
HEADLINES: • Dom Development: turning up the volume (stays BUY) • Wirtualna Polska: strong 3Q21, with adjusted EBITDA up 29% yoy, 7% above our estimate POSITIVE • Atrium: 3Q21 - headline figures exceed our estimates, transition to resi started POSITIVE • GTC: 3Q21 - above our expectations POSITIVE • HeadHunter: 3Q21 financial results and conference call review POSITIVE • Famur: 3Q21 EBITDA 3% above consensus, strong backlog growth POSITIVE • Conpet: 3Q21 results close to our estimates • Alro:...
MARKET COMMENT - SPACE WEAPONS, PRESIDENTIAL SUMMITS AND AN AMBIVALENT GLOBAL BACKDROPGlobal stock markets have lacked clear direction yesterday and today, with top-down discussions tending to focus on the debate about inflation and central bank responses. The MSCI EM edged up 0.1%, while the RTS managed an only 0.4% rebound to 1,791 after Friday's sharp drop. Russia is now generally at its lowest valuations of the year, while political risk impressions are unlikely to be helped by yesterday's t...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ОБЩИЙ ФОН СКОРЕЕ НЕЙТРАЛЬНЫЙ, НО ПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЕ РИСКИ СОХРАНЯЮТСЯВчера и сегодня четкой динамики на глобальных рынках акций не наблюдалось. В центре внимания были инфляция и реакция центробанков на ее ускорение. Индекс MSCI EM прибавил 0,1%, а индекс РТС после пятничного обвала сумел восстановиться только на 0,4%. Сейчас оценочные коэффициенты российского рынка находятся на минимумах с начала года, что обусловлено политическими рисками. Впрочем, сегодня утром индикаторы рос...
HeadHunter Group PLC Announces Third Quarter 2021 Financial Results MOSCOW, Nov. 15, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- HeadHunter Group PLC (Nasdaq: HHR, MOEX: HHRU) announced today its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2021. As used below, references to “we,” “our,” “us” or the “Company” or similar terms shall mean HeadHunter Group PLC. Third Quarter 2021 Financial and Operational Highlights (in millions of RUB(1) and USD(2))Three months ended September 30, 2021Three months ended September 30, 2020Change(3)Three months ended September 30, 2021RUBRUB USD(4)Revenue4,690 2,3...
HeadHunter Group PLC Announces Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results MOSCOW, Aug. 16, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- HeadHunter Group PLC (Nasdaq: HHR, MOEX: HHRU) announced today its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2021. As used below, references to “we,” “our,” “us” or the “Company” or similar terms shall mean HeadHunter Group PLC. Second Quarter 2021 Financial and Operational Highlights (in millions of RUB(1) and USD(2))Three months ended June 30, 2021Three months ended June 30, 2020Change(3)Three months ended June 30, 2021RUBRUB USD(4)Revenue3,9111,534155.0%54....
MARKET COMMENT - US INFRASTRUCTURE PACKAGE BOOSTED CYCLICALS WHILE MARKETS LACK CLEAR DIRECTION TODAYCyclicals dominated DMs yesterday amid the US Senate passage of a massive infrastructure package. Pandemic plays lagged, though in EMs tech dominated due to the recovery in China. The RTS gained 0.3% to 1,647, and sector performances largely reflected the global trend. Markets lack a clear direction this morning in the lead-up to US CPI, oil data and Russian macro data in the late afternoon and e...
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