As we approach summer and reflect upon the already very busy and volatile first half of the year, we review our Credit Markets Outlook for 2025 and offer an update on our views, positioning and forecasts for the remainder of the year. We include our Picks and Pans on the Utilities, TMT, Real Estate and Bank sectors.
In this report we evaluate Equinix and Digital Realty Trust, two data centres with bonds outstanding in the Euro market. The notes of both companies look attractive, in our view. Below, we first present our investment views, followed by an update of our data centre market view. We end with a summary of the recent earnings reports of both companies.
After Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on 23 August, we see a turning point starting with a US Fed rate cut in Sep 24 and lower rates heading into 2025. In the Singapore market, REITs and the property sector should benefit, as should highly-geared companies and those looking to recycle capital. Our current forecasts have incorporated lower NIMs for banks which we believe are protected by their high dividend yields.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls We expect stimulus to be announced in August and add COSCO Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and add SELL call on WuXi Bio, and XPeng. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal amid share price pullback; eyes on interim dividend surprise. Sector Automobile ...
S-REITs have weathered the sell-down caused by interest rates staying higher for longer. The recent cooling in the US labour market gave reassurance that rate cuts should commence as anticipated in Sep 24. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Many blue-chip SREITs are trading at attractive distribution yields of 6-7%. We have picked blue-chip SREITs from a bottom-up basis: BUY FEHT (Target: S$0.77), KREIT (Target: S$1.15), LREIT (Target: S$0.85), MINT (Target: S$2.78) and MPACT (Target: S$1.68).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Digital Core REIT (DCREIT SP/BUY/US$0.62/Target: US$0.81) 1H24: Making progress to backfill Frankfurt and Los Angeles data centres. Update Riverstone Holdings (RSTON SP/BUY/S$0.95/S$1.16) Strong earnings expected; target price raised to S$1.16. TRADERS' CORNER Seatrium (STM SP): Trading BUY Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP): Trading BUY
GREATER CHINA Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$88.00/Target: HK$118.50): 2Q24: Weak results; advanced packaging progress remains intact. Maintain BUY. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb35.41/Target: Rmb86.00): 2Q24: Earnings up 25% yoy/qoq, in line. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rmb86.00. Update Pinduoduo (PDD US/BUY/US$134.24/Target: US$200.00): Navigating against unwavering geopolitical concerns. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp1,630): 1Q24 reve...
1H24 DPU of 1.80 US cents (-6.3% yoy) was in line with expectations. DCREIT has repositioned by acquiring an additional 24.9% stake in its Frankfurt data centre and 10% stake in its Osaka data centre. It has backfilled vacant space at its Frankfurt data centre and occupancy has improved 6.3ppt qoq to 98.5% after it signed several new leases. DCREIT provides 2025 distribution yield of 5.7% (KDCREIT: 4.8% and MINT: 5.9%). Maintain BUY. Target price: US$0.81.
Core data centre hubs in the US, such as Northern Virginia and Silicon Valley, are benefitting from rising AI demand from public cloud providers and AI companies. Vacancy is tight in Singapore but new demand is being diverted to the neighbouring state of Johor in Malaysia. Our preferred BUYs are DCREIT (Target: US$0.80) and MINT (Target: S$2.78) due to their focus on the US market. CLAR’s (Target: S$3.44) exposure to data centres is smaller, but it is looking to expand.
Core data centre hubs in the US, such as Northern Virginia and Silicon Valley, are benefitting from rising AI demand from public cloud providers and AI companies. Vacancy is tight in Singapore but new demand is being diverted to the neighbouring state of Johor in Malaysia. Our preferred BUYs are DCREIT (Target: US$0.80) and MINT (Target: S$2.78) due to their focus on the US market. CLAR’s (Target: S$3.44) exposure to data centres is smaller, but it is looking to expand.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Call Adding ASMPT, Innovent, Poly Property Services, TAL Education and Trip.com to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Crystal International (2232 HK/BUY/HK$3.95/Target: HK$4.76) 1Q24 preview: Expecting interim DPS to more than double. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Jun 24 And 2Q24 Our picks are BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSM...
S-REITs have weathered the sell-down caused by interest rates staying higher for longer. The easing of core PCE inflation in May 24 gave reassurance that rate cuts should commence as anticipated in 4Q24. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Many blue-chip S-REITs are trading at attractive distribution yields of 6-7%. We have picked blue-chip S-REITs from a bottom-up basis: BUY FEHT (Target: S$0.77), KREIT (Target: S$1.15), LREIT (Target: S$0.85), MINT (Target: S$2.78) and MPACT (Target: S$1.73).
S-REITs have weathered the sell-down caused by interest rates staying higher for longer. The easing of core PCE inflation in May 24 gave reassurance that rate cuts should commence as anticipated in 4Q24. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Many blue-chip SREITs are trading at attractive distribution yields of 6-7%. We picked blue-chip S-REITs from a bottom-up basis: BUY FEHT (Target: S$0.77), KREIT (Target: S$1.15), LREIT (Target: S$0.85), MINT (Target: S$2.78) and MPACT (Target: S$1.73).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking Rate cuts coming but not too much. Update Digital Core REIT (DCREIT SP/BUY/US$0.56/Target: US$0.85) Expansion in Germany and Japan increases geographical diversification. TRADERS' CORNER Civmec (CVL SP): Trading BUY Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP): Trading BUY
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: Sales of top 10 EV brands up over 20% wow last week, in line. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL and Tuopu. Top SELL: XPeng. Education: Out of the woods after three years. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp386/Target: Rp520): A 9% yoy growth in number of retail outlets in 2024; average SSSG in 1Q24 reaches 5-6%; maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Strategy 2H24 Strategy: We continue to advocate a risk-on strategy in anticipation of a stea...
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