Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK5.00) - Ongoing renovation

We have lowered our 2024–2025e sales slightly and our adj. EBIT by 10–5% ahead of the Q1 results. While we find Nobia’s financial position has improved significantly following the de-leveraging measures, we see some demand uncertainty into 2025 and 2026 (primarily in the Project business), and reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK5 (3.58), based on a blended 2-year forward EV/sales of 0.65x.

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK335.00) - Strong start to 2024

The Q1 earnings were above our forecast, even though some of the positive effects were one-offs (manufacturing revenues, among others). We believe Vonjo sales have bottomed out and we should be back at QOQ growth from Q2. The haemophilia franchise enjoyed stronger than expected growth, but some of this was due to phasing between quarters (hence this might hurt Q2 sales slightly). We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK335 (320).

Q1 shows core SOBI sales model works

Strong Q1 numbers, 20% CER growth and 5-15% adj EBITA beat. Vonjo questions remain, but Q1 shows that SOBI sales model works. EPS +1-2% and unchanged BUY, as core case is reaffirmed.

Electrolux Professional (Hold, TP: SEK72.00) - Food delivery

While our 2024–2026e sales are roughly unchanged, we have raised our clean EBITA by 4–2% on higher margin assumptions for Food & Beverage. Tosei was accretive for group margins in Q1, but the quarter is seasonally strong for the acquired business, and we do not expect Q2 to be as solid. We reiterate our HOLD, but have increased our target price to SEK72 (71).

Q1'24: strong sales and decent margin

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK420.00) - In a sweet spot

Despite low mining volumes, the Q1 results were close to our expectations, thanks to good cost control. We have made significant estimate increases on better metal price and FX assumptions, and beyond 2024 we continue to see additional earnings support from: 1) higher mining volumes due to richer metal grades; 2) normal operations at Rönnskär; and 3) growing profits from the Odda smelter. Our spot-based estimates for 2027 translate to an EV/EBIT of 5.2x, but we see significant upside potential t...

FLSmidth (Buy, TP: DKK400.00) - Another transformation year

Ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:30 CET on 15 May), we have made relatively minor estimate changes, raising our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c2% on average. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to DKK400 (370).

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK14.00) - Set for slow start to the year

While we forecast a continued sequential order intake improvement, we are 4% and 6%, respectively, below consensus on Q1e sales and adj. EBITDA, as we expect a slow start to the year. This is supported by AutoStore US imports, indicating a substantial drop in Q1 sales. In our view, the soft revenue growth could raise concerns about top-line growth for 2024, potentially alleviated by a strong order intake. Thus, we reiterate our SELL and NOK14 target price, corresponding to a 2024–2025e adj. P/E ...

Electrolux Professional (Hold, TP: SEK71.00) - Inventory step-up to we...

We have raised our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by 3–5%, mainly on positive FX revisions and higher margin assumptions. We have included an inventory step-up in our Q1 estimates, which hits our adj. EBITA negatively by SEK30m. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK71 (62) on valuation.

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK380.00) - Rosy outlook for copper and gold

Having significantly increased our earnings forecasts, we have raised our target price to SEK380 (320) on higher metal price assumptions, and reiterate our BUY. Acknowledging the operational issues, we still expect a sharp increase in earnings from 2025, due to: 1) higher metal prices; 2) higher volumes due to richer metal grades; 3) normal operations at Rönnskär; and 4) growing profits from the Odda smelter. Our spot-based forecasts for 2027 translate into an EV/EBIT of 6x, but we see significa...

Repricing the tonic for bad weather

We expect above-normal weather-related claims in Q1 as a result of heavy rain and snowfall (and record-low temperatures) in the Nordics at the start of the year. On the positive side, we believe the non-life insurers should see the effects of 2023’s repricing efforts, while their latest CMD presentations leave us confident the sector remains committed to maintaining underwriting discipline. Tryg is our top pick in the Nordic P&C sector, while we also reiterate our BUYs on Sampo and Gjensidige an...

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - Vonjo sales likely to ...

We forecast still-soft Vonjo sales in Q1, as we believe new patients will not fully compensate for those coming off treatment until Q2, when we expect growth to return. We are slightly below consensus for Q1e and 2024e (Q1 results due at 08:00 CET on 25 April). We reiterate our BUY and SEK320 target price.

Nobia AB: 1 director

A director at Nobia AB bought 50,000 shares at 7.330SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 65/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showi...

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK14.00) - Not out of the woods yet

AutoStore reported improved order intake QOQ in Q4, but we believe the lack of revenue guidance for 2024 supports our estimate of flattish YOY growth, with what appears to be a continued muted outlook. Thus, we still see downside risk to consensus; we are 15% below on 2024e adj. OpFCF. We reiterate our SELL and NOK14 target price, corresponding to 2024–2025e adj. P/Es of 25–18x.

Sampo Oyj (Buy, TP: EUR47.00) - Capital and underwriting discipline

Underwriting improvements and capital generation were again in focus at the CMD. For 2024–2026, Sampo targets a lower group combined ratio of 7% annual growth in operating EPS, which it believes together with further capital optimalisation and a reduced Solvency II target of 150–190% should generate EUR4bn+ in deployable capital by 2026. We have made limited estimate revisions, and reiterate our BUY and EUR47 target price.