AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25. Re-iterating FY25 guidance – 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia. Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy. Equatorial Guinea output was temporarily impacted by unplanned downtime at the Ceiba Cluster, but operations ...
Harbour has released its Q1 2025 trading update, reporting strong production and cost performance in the period, continuing to underpin the company’s cash flows during the current period of oil price volatility. We remain of the view that current share price levels are attractive given Harbour’s production diversity, balance sheet strength, hedging position (40% of 2025 production is now hedged), and focus on maintaining its dividend, with a current forward yield of over 12% available.
Harbour recently released its 2024 results and hosted a capital markets update. The results were in line with the January trading statement, while the capital markets update provided longer term guidance for 2025-27, helping demonstrate how the existing portfolio can retain production and continue supporting the attractive dividend. We have now updated our model for the results and longer-term guidance.
GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$17 per share: Four new exploration wells at Confluencia Sur – The FY24 production had been reported previously. Gross production in Argentina is approximately 15,000 boe/d and is expected to increase to around 16,000-17,000 boe/d by the end of 2025. The acquisition of the Argentinian assets is anticipated to be completed in late 1Q25 or early 2Q25 pending the regulatory approval of the Neuquen province. While the test results at the three wells drilled at C...
Harbour has released its full year 2024 results, reflecting a year of significant change as the company completed its Wintershall Dea acquisition. Production is now almost triple the level prior to the acquisition, and well diversified outside of the UK, representing significant progress on constructing a reliable, cash generative portfolio.
We have now updated our model to introduce new forecasts accounting for Harbour’s Wintershall Dea acquisition, and incorporating guidance from the recent trading statement. These show the company valued at reasonably attractive metrics versus peers, underpinned by the diversity of the production base.
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Historic permit award in Italy opens a new growth area - ADX has been offered and accepted the “d 363 C.R-.AX” permit in the Sicily Channel, offshore Italy, covering a maximum area of 346 km2. ADX applied for the permit in 2018, but the moratorium on awarding new exploration blocks in Italy was only lifted last year. ADX will become a licensed operator in Italy as well as Austria ...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of NOK51 per share: Water inflow from a small interval in Welchau deeper formation. Continuing well test up hole – Two intervals in the Steinalm formation (1452.5 m-1463.5 m and 1474.5 m-1480 m MD) were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces. Gas was initially observed at surface. While the achieved flow rate hig...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.70 per share: Approvals to start well testing at Welchau received. Rig and test equipment mobilized – All necessary approvals have been received to commence flow testing operations on the Welchau-1 discovery well for the period from 30 October 2024 until 31 March 2025. A workover rig has been mobilised to the Welchau-1 drill site with flow testing due to commence during the second half of Novem...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price NOK52 per share: All eyes on EG – 1H24 production was 9,168 bbl/d. EG and Gabon production had already been disclosed. 1H24 production in Tunisia was 1,670 bbl/d (we forecasted 1,760 bbl/d) given subdued activities. In EG, the first infill well encountered the primary and secondary reservoirs in line with expectations. Production is expected to begin early September. The second infill well is expec...
We have updated our forecasts and valuation for Harbour. Our numbers currently continue to focus on the existing Harbour business, prior to inclusion of the Wintershall Dea assets. The Wintershall Dea deal continues to target completion in Q4 2024, and we intend to update our numbers to account for this in due course.
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Spudding high impact well – Drilling operations have started at the Carrizales Norte B Pad Horizontal Well 1. This is the first horizontal well drilled in the Ubaque on Tapir. Three more horizontal wells will be drilled on the pad. Delivering good flow rates at these wells will be very important for future production growth. Arrow held US$12.4 mm in cash at the beginning ...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$26 per share: More favourable offtake contract in Colombia – GeoPark has signe da new offtake contract with Vitol for a minimum of 20 mbbl/d. The agreement improves GeoPark’s price realizations by US$0.15/bbl vs the current agreement. As part of this transaction, GeoPark will obtain immediate access to committed funding from Vitol for up to US$300 mm, with an option to increase by another US$200 m...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; target price of NOK47 per share: Hibiscus South on stream at 5-6 mbbl/d – The Hibiscus South well has been put in production at a rate of 5-6 mbbl/d. Once stabilized this should take production at Dussafu to ~30 mbbl/d. Pulsar Helium (PLSR CN)C; target price of C$0.80 per share: High Helium concentration at high impact appraisal well – The Jetstream #1 appraisal well at the Topaz helium project in Minnesota en...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$24 per share: Further exploration success in Colombia – The Perico-1 exploration well at CPO-5 encountered hydrocarbons in the Barco (Guadalupe) formation. The well is currently producing 650 bbl/d of 14 deg API oil with 8% water cut. This is an important well that confirms the extension of the Llanos-34 Guadalupe play into CPO-5 and is probably derisking further prospects. This is the fifth disco...
Harbour released a trading statement yesterday. This reported 2023 performance within guidance, new guidance for 2024 of lower production due to scheduled maintenance and the impact of delayed drilling in 2023 (with free cash flow also lower on higher tax payments), and then an expectation of a flat production performance in 2025 on lower maintenance and positive impact from new wells.
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.65 per share: Oversuscribed share purchase plan – ADX has raised a further ~A$1.6 mm as part of a share purchase plan. The terms are in line with the recently announced A$4.8 mm equity raise priced at A$0.10 per share. Chariot (CHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Extending position in electricity trading company – Chariot is acquiring 49% of Etana Energy from the Neura Group, with H1 a...
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