Signs of sector recovery, and more Q1 results

The markets were much quieter following the Easter break, with limited news; however, the names we cover saw their shares up 2.6% on average, with Atrium Ljungberg (7.1%), SBB (7.1%) and Pandox (4.8%) the top performers. JM released its Q1 results and we reiterated our BUY, believing it has passed the earnings trough, while we reiterated our HOLDs on Corem and Fabege following their quarterly reports. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.04% for 2025e and 5.34%...

More to come

Coor Service Management (Buy, TP: SEK54.00) - Efficiencies gaining mom...

Promising signs of Coor’s self-improvement case gaining momentum were crystallised in sharp increases in earnings and FCF in Q1. This further improved the risk/reward in our view, combining internal efficiencies and a strengthening Nordic FM/IFM market, with Coor’s own portfolio largely derisked for 2025. After tweaking our 2025–2027e EPS, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK54 (52) on a strengthening turnaround case at an attractive valuation, in our view.

Better margins and strong cash flow

Telenor (Sell, TP: NOK140.00) - Q1e slightly below consensus

We have made only limited estimate changes (except for an accounting change for the treatment of write-offs in associates) and are slightly below consensus on Q1e revenues, service revenues, adj. EBITDA, net profit and FCF. With Nordics opex cuts looking set to be back-end loaded this year, we expect Q1 to be a relatively uneventful quarter. We will look for more clarity on lower-quality cash flow tailwinds with regard to Telenor’s ability to cover its dividends with FCF before M&A this year, wh...

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1075.00) - Expect flat start to 2025e

We expect Carlsberg to report a slow start to the year, mainly related to the loss of the San Miguel contract and the timing of Easter. However, we believe this should not come as a surprise, and thus expect the 2025 guidance to be maintained. At a 12-month forward P/E of c14x, we still find the stock attractive, with further upside potential from better-than-expected execution of Britvic and any improvement in China. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,075 target price.

Lion Copper And Gold Corp: 1 director

A director at Lion Copper And Gold Corp bought 233,910 shares at 0.120USD and the significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...

Coloplast (Hold, TP: DKK770.00) - Expecting another weak quarter

We expect another soft quarter (7.8% organic revenue growth YOY and a 27.5% EBIT margin), before then improving. We look for unchanged 2024/25 guidance of 8–9% organic sales growth and a c28% EBIT margin before special items. We have cut our 2024/25–2026/27e EPS by 2.8% on average and believe returning to a 30%+ EBIT margin hinges on external factors. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to DKK770 (850).

Q1 reporting begins, volatility persists, CEO to leave and ‘special ex...

The ‘tariff volatility’ in credit and equity markets persisted this week, reversing many of the gains from previous weeks. Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. Öresund’s representative left the board of Stenhus and appointed a special examiner to review the company’s management. Castellum’s CEO Joacim Sjöberg stated he plans to leave by Q4 2026. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.33% for 2025e and 5.66% for 2026e.

Sector recovery on tariff introduction

While still down YTD, the Nordic real estate sector did see a recovery this week on falling interest rates as a result of US tariffs being imposed. Furthermore, we upgraded JM to BUY (HOLD) and published several Q1 previews in the construction sector. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.06% for 2025e and 5.37% for 2026e.

Improving cash flows, but still pricey

Rich valuation and slowing momentum

Coor Service Management (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - Self-improvement case ma...

We see signs of Coor’s self-improvement case evolving in Q1, with efficiency actions detailed and a strong FCF reversal likely. In our view, this improves the risk/reward, with internal improvements gaining momentum as the underlying Nordic FM/IFM market remains supportive. After tweaking our 2025–2027e EPS, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK52 (48) on a strengthening turnaround case at an attractive valuation.

Outlook for continued high rates

Although we continue to expect some margin headwind, the outlook for postponed rate cuts – leaving interest rates at continued high levels – should bode well for sector earnings, further supported by a strong profitability focus and modest loan losses. With the sector trading at an average 2026e P/E of c11.0x, and solid dividend potential, we find the valuation undemanding. We reiterate our positive sector view but highlight a larger share of HOLD recommendations than 12 months ago.

A-rated TMT credit investments/Better credits at similar spreads

This report updates credit investors on opportunities in the single-A TMT space. We argue that the notes of Relx, Swisscom, and ASML look attractive. The notes of SAP and Telenor look to trade at fair value. We provide a summary of our general findings, followed by company descriptions.

Everything is connected

Geopolitical uncertainty has affected market interest rates and thus the Nordic real estate sector – and we see no near-term fix. The yield gap (risk premium) has remained broadly unchanged in the recent market volatility, meaning interest rates changes explain most of the YTD share price performance – a correlation we expected will continue. The local office rental market remains soft, and we expect the logistics market to follow suit. However, given the deleveraging efforts in recent years and...