reports
- Simen Mortensen
Q1 reporting continues
This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Niclas Gehin
Tomra (Sell, TP: NOK95.00) - Headwinds for Recycling
Recycling reported disappointing Q1 adj. EBITA of NOK7m on lower revenues, which also hurt margins. Given the solid order intake – a bright spot in the report – we have only reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 3–4%. We struggle to justify the 2024e P/E of 39x (similar to the ‘Magnificent 7’, with ~20% average annual growth rates) coupled with 2024e revenue growth of only ~3–4% and risk to 2025–2026e growth from potential delays in Poland and the UK’s DRS implementations. We reiterate our SELL and NOK9...
- Simen Mortensen
Q1 reporting season kicks off
Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Tomi Railo
- Niklas Wetterling
Wihlborgs (Buy, TP: SEK105.00) - Strong Q1 net lettings, as expected
The Q1 results were solid, with strong net lettings (as flagged) and a 4% consensus beat on PFPM (albeit fully explained by a one-off). Following a good start to Q2 lettings, we see potential for the strong net-lettings trend to continue. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK105 (100) on a tweaked valuation.
- Niclas Gehin
Tomra (Sell, TP: NOK95.00) - Pricing does not reflect its growth
We expect Tomra to report a Q1 EBITA of NOK311m (results due at 7:00 CET on 26 April). We have reduced our 2024 EPS estimate by 3% on cuts in the Food segment while we have raised our 2026 by 6% from upwards revisions in the Recycling segment. We have raised our target price to NOK95 (75) while we reiterate our SELL as we struggle to justify its 2024e P/E of 33x (similar to that of the ‘Magnificent 7’ with ~20% annual growth rates) when seen in combination with Tomra’s 2024 revenues growth expec...
- Simen Mortensen
EPBD the big story this week
The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. In other news, KMC Properties bought a new asset and appointed an interim CEO, JM got a new CEO, while Castellum announced a divestment and new leases, and Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.74% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Niklas Wetterling
Wihlborgs (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Back up to BUY ahead of Q1
We have upgraded Wihlborgs to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK100 (90). We no longer see a near-term risk to the stock from material asset write-downs, but rather expect investors to focus on healthy momentum in lettings at Wihlborgs. With a positive outlook for Q1, we forecast strong net lettings, and are 3% above Infront consensus on profit from property management (PFPM). The results are due at 07:30 CET on 23 April.
Long-term Incentive Programme 2024
Long-term Incentive Programme 2024 COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT NO. 7-2024 11 April 2024, Copenhagen, Denmark The Board of Directors of FLSmidth & Co. A/S has today allocated performance shares to members of the Executive Management and key staff (155 persons in total) as part of the Group's Long-term Incentive Programme. The primary purpose of the programme is to retain key staff and to align the interests of shareholders and the incentive programme participants by rewarding performance in accordance with the company’s strategy and its long-term financial targets. The number of per...
Resumé af FLSmidth & Co. A/S' ordinære generalforsamling
Resumé af FLSmidth & Co. A/S' ordinære generalforsamling COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT 6-2024 10. april 2024, København, Danmark Onsdag den 10. april 2024 kl. 16:00 afholdt FLSmidth & Co. A/S ordinær generalforsamling på selskabets adresse, Vigerslev Allé 77, 2500 Valby, med følgende dagsorden: Bestyrelsens beretning om selskabets virksomhed i 2023Forelæggelse og godkendelse af årsrapport for 2023Godkendelse af honorarer til bestyrelsen: Endelig godkendelse af honorarer for 2023Foreløbig fastsættelse af honorarer for 2024 Anvendelse af overskud eller dækning af underskud i henhold ti...
Summary of FLSmidth & Co. A/S' Annual General Meeting
Summary of FLSmidth & Co. A/S' Annual General Meeting COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT 6-2024 10 April 2024, Copenhagen, Danmark On Wednesday 10 April 2024 4 pm (CEST), FLSmidth & Co A/S held its Annual General Meeting at the offices of the company, Vigerslev Allé 77, DK-2500 Valby with the following agenda: The Board of Directors' report on the company’s activities in 2023Presentation and approval of the 2023 Annual ReportApproval of the Board of Directors’ fees: Final approval of fees for 2023.Preliminary determination of fees for 2024 Distribution of profits or covering of losses in accord...
- Simen Mortensen
Fully valued near-term
We maintain a neutral sector stance, but see near-term setbacks and consider risks tilted to the downside near-term due to strong sector performance in the past month, while market interest rates have risen. We expect two years of zero NAV growth, on average, due to yield expansion, and the sector theme to be deleveraging, with limited capex. We see few potential company-specific catalysts, leaving share prices largely driven by macro factors. We consider the sector fully valued near-term, at an...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
Vacancy uptick in Stockholm
This week, Citymark announced vacancies in the Stockholm office market are now higher than during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Selvaag Bolig (SELL, TP NOK25) released KPIs for Q1, where unsold inventory was at an all-time high. Norwegian house prices rose 0.9% in March and 5.9% YTD. Entra announced leases. Corem announced that it aims to issue bonds. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.62% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
Transactions, debt repurchase, and National Transport Plan
This week, Corem, Catena and Vasakronan (which re-entered the M&A arena after a more than 5-year absence) announced property transactions, SBB saw its share price rise by 29% on the week after retiring long-term debt, and the Norwegian government unveiled a somewhat smaller budget in its latest National Transport Plan (NTP), with a weak read-across to the local construction and consultancy sector, in our view The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.54% for 2024e a...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
Insider transactions, SBB rating lowered and lease contracts
There were several insider transactions this week. Also, SBB offered to buy back certain hybrid and senior bonds, and credit agencies lowered their ratings in response. Corem announced new leases, and a large Norwegian real estate syndicate was taken over by one of its bondholders. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.60% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
INDKALDELSE til ordinær generalforsamling i FLSmidth & Co. A/S
INDKALDELSE til ordinær generalforsamling i FLSmidth & Co. A/S COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT NO. 5-202413 marts 2024, København, Danmark Bestyrelsen indkalder herved til ordinær generalforsamling onsdag den 10. april 2024 kl. 16.00 på selskabets adresse, Vigerslev Allé 77, 2500 Valby. Dagsorden: Bestyrelsens beretning om selskabets virksomhed i 2023Forelæggelse og godkendelse af årsrapport for 2023Godkendelse af honorarer til bestyrelsen: a. Endelig godkendelse af honorarer for 2023 Bestyrelsen foreslår uændret godkendelse af honorarerne for 2023, som blev f...
NOTICE TO CONVENE the Annual General Meeting of FLSmidth & Co. A/S
NOTICE TO CONVENE the Annual General Meeting of FLSmidth & Co. A/S COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT NO. 5-202413 March 2024, Copenhagen, Denmark The Board of Directors hereby convenes the Annual General Meeting to be held on Wednesday 10 April 2024 at 4 pm (CEST) at the offices of the company, Vigerslev Allé 77, DK-2500 Valby. Agenda: The Board of Directors' report on the company’s activities in 2023Presentation and approval of the 2023 Annual ReportApproval of the Board of Directors’ fees: a. Final approval of fees for 2023. The Board of Directors proposes unchanged approval ...
- Simen Mortensen
Modest 2024–2026 growth outlook
We expect flattish 2024–2025 NAVps growth for our Swedish coverage, due to too-low asset writedowns in 2023, but 7% in 2026e assuming stabilised yields. We forecast a 2024–2025 FFOps CAGR of 5%, held back by: 1) maturing interest rate hedges; 2) expected rental growth slow-down; and 3) deleveraging hurting investment capacity. However, we consider this priced in at a sector NAV median discount of 27%. We maintain a neutral sector stance, and our top picks are Catena, Castellum, Nyfosa and Pandox...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
Last Q4 report and other updates
Last Q4 report and other updates Q4 reporting season for our covered names concluded this week with SBB’s results. Citycon has taken over Kista and issued a bond, and we cut our target price. Balder bought back hybrid bonds, Nyfosa is evaluating strategic options for its Söderport holding, and Pandox agreed to sell DoubleTree by Hilton Montreal. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.85% for 2024e and 5.13% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
Q4 reports flurry
Q4 reports flurry This week, Nyfosa reported solid Q4 results, but the market focused on it scrapping its dividend for 2023. Catena’s NAV grew by c7% QOQ in Q4, due to a landbank write-up, while Sagax reported 15% YOY PFPMPS growth for 2023. Corem also cut its dividend for 2023 and NAV dropped by 14% during the quarter. For KMC Properties, one-offs resulted in Q4 EBIT missing our estimate, while Citycon completed a share issue of EUR48.2m. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stock...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
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