reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we flipped to neutral. Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since our 5/14/25 Compass. We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ continue to hold. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term v...
RY. ROYAL BANK OF CANADA
LYG.. LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC ADS
BNS. BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA
BCS BARCLAYS PLC ADS
RIO RIO TINTO LIMITED
CENX CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY
BANK OTKRITIE FINANCIAL CORPORATION PJSC
AA ALCOA CORPORATION
NOHA NORSK HYDRO ASA ADS
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
NWG NATWEST GROUP
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis. Bottom line: our outlook remains bullish as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5770-5850. Our recommen...
PAG PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC
KMX CARMAX INC.
LYG.. LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC ADS
LOPE GRAND CANYON EDUCATION INC.
LINC LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES
LAD LITHIA MOTORS INC. CLASS A
GPI GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE INC.
BFAM BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC.
BCS BARCLAYS PLC ADS
APEI AMERICAN PUBLIC EDUCATION
AN AUTONATION INC.
SAH SONIC AUTOMOTIVE INC. CLASS A
LAUR LAUREATE EDUCATION INC. CLASS A
ATGE ADTALEM GLOBAL EDUCATION INC.
STRA STRATEGIC EDUCATION INC.
AFYA AFYA
PRDO PERDOCEO EDUCATION CORP
DUOL DUOLINGO INC
UTI MULTI UNITS LU - AMUNDI STOXX EUROPE 600 UTILITIES UCITS ETF
- Elisabeth Rudman
- Vitaline Yeterian
- Elisabeth Rudman
- Maria Rivas Escrigas
- Vitaline Yeterian
UK Banks’ Q1 2023 Results Boosted by NII Growth, But Pressure on NIM E...
DBRS Morningstar has released a commentary discussing large UK banks’ Q1 2023 earnings, covering HSBC Holdings plc, Barclays PLC, Lloyds Banking Group plc and NatWest Group plc. Key highlights: • The four large UK banks showed significant improvement in profitability in Q1 2023 boosted by strong growth in net interest income reflecting the rising interest rates. • Higher revenues continued to offset the higher, albeit lower than during the pandemic, levels of loan loss provisions and high...
- Elisabeth Rudman
- Vitaline Yeterian
- Elisabeth Rudman
- Maria Rivas Escrigas
- Vitaline Yeterian
Manageable Impact From Debt Unrealised Losses for Large UK Banks; Robu...
DBRS Morningstar released a commentary on the potential impact of unrealised losses for large UK banks. Key highlights include: • UK banks have securities portfolios at amortised cost that represent a lower proportion of assets than for European Banks and SVB. • Under an extreme theoretical scenario that the large UK banks are required to sell their amortised cost bond portfolios, we view the negative impact on the banks’ CET1 would be modest and fully manageable, even when we assume a 10...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity? Market dynamics remain largely bearish and unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports (3910 on S&P 500, $177.50 on IWM, and $279 on QQQ, all broken on Dec. 15) are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows. Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to i...
NG. NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC.
LYG.. LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC ADS
CFSL COCA-COLA FEMSA SAB DE CV (ADR)
PU6D HSBC HOLDINGS (ADR)
BCS BARCLAYS PLC ADS
AGI. ALAMOS GOLD INC.
AKOB EMBOTELLADORA ANDINA S.A. SERIES B ADS
IMG. IAMGOLD CORPORATION
NWG NATWEST GROUP PLC
MX MAGNACHIP SEMICONDUCTOR CORP.
BBV.. BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A. SPONSORED ADR
SAN. BANCO SANTANDER S.A. ADS
MUX MCEWEN MINING INC.
- Elisabeth Rudman
- Maria Rivas Escrigas
- Vitaline Yeterian
UK Banks’ CRE: Some Deterioration But Contained; Impact of Higher Rate...
This commentary looks at the commercial real estate (CRE) sector for banks domiciled in the UK, and is based on publicly available data reported by the large UK banks rated by DBRS Morningstar (HSBC, Lloyds, Barclays, and NatWest or “the banks”) for their CRE portfolios. Key highlights: • The large UK banks have reduced their Commercial Real Estate (CRE) exposures in the UK both in absolute terms and as a proportion of UK lending over the past three years, while the overall CRE exposure in the...
- Elisabeth Rudman
- Maria Rivas Escrigas
- Vitaline Yeterian
UK Banks H122: Solid Returns, No Deterioration Yet in Asset Quality
DBRS Morningstar has released a commentary discussing large UK banks’ H1 2022 earnings, covering HSBC Holdings plc, Barclays PLC, Lloyds Banking Group plc and NatWest Group plc (the banks). Key highlights: • The banks reported solid results in H1 2022 reflective of higher revenues with all banks showing net interest income (NII) increases year-over-year (YoY), while the UK mortgage market has not showed signs of being significantly affected by higher rates. • The cost of living pressure cr...
- Elisabeth Rudman
- Maria Rivas Escrigas
- Vitaline Yeterian
UK Banks Q1: Solid Thanks to Higher Revenues; But Inflation and Cost o...
DBRS Morningstar has released a commentary discussing large UK banks’ Q1 2022 earnings, covering HSBC Holdings plc, Barclays PLC, Lloyds Banking Group plc and NatWest Group plc. Key highlights: • The banks generally reported solid net results in Q1 2022 thanks to higher core revenues which include higher net interest income driven by higher interest rates and sustained mortgage activity in the UK. • At the same time, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in Asia, and concerns over the...
- Elisabeth Rudman
- Maria Rivas Escrigas
- Vitaline Yeterian
UK Banks’ FY21 Results: Solid Returns Largely Driven by Loan Loss Reve...
DBRS Morningstar has released a commentary discussing large UK banks’ FY21 earnings, covering HSBC Holdings plc, Barclays PLC, Lloyds Banking Group plc and NatWest Group plc. Key highlights: • Large UK banks reported solid returns in FY21 mainly thanks to provision reversals. Income before provisions and taxes remained below FY19 levels on an aggregate basis. • Bank of England’s interest rate increase is supportive of UK banks’ net interest income which is the largest contributor to revenues....
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Stick With Energy and Financials Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward. Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus. S&P 500. The S&P 500 held above short-term support at the 200-day MA (currently 4446); as long as this level holds we view it as a bullish sign for the SPX and broad market, as it would mean the January breakdown below th...
DBK DEUTSCHE BANK AG
TD. TORONTO-DOMINION BANK
SU. SUNCOR ENERGY INC.
RY. ROYAL BANK OF CANADA
LYG.. LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC ADS
CVE CENOVUS ENERGY INC.
CNO CNO FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
BNS. BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA
BMO. BANK OF MONTREAL
BCS BARCLAYS PLC ADS
NWG NATWEST GROUP PLC
BBV.. BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A. SPONSORED ADR
SAN. BANCO SANTANDER S.A. ADS
IMO IMMORENTE INVEST SA
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