reports
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile VIL Capital Increase – should you participate and what ...
Sometimes the markets behave in ways that appear irrational. VIL having sufficient market cap to launch an INR 200bn ($2.4bn) capital increase despite (in our view) being a failing business is one example. But what does it mean for Bharti, Jio and Indus?
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
EM Telcos Validating the Enterprise thesis
In this note we revisit and update our thesis that Enterprise in EM is following an S-Curve. Key new work shows that as a result, absolute incremental Enterprise revenue in China has doubled each year for the past 3 years. This is why overall Telco revenues have sharply accelerated. We show the other countries/ stocks where the early signs are of the same thing happening.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Bharti Airtel (Buy, TP: INR1,300, +85%) Thoughts after th...
Bharti’s Q1 figures were strong, pretty much across the board. The stock has traded sideways for 6-9 months, but we think with the 5G auction now over, the conditions are right for the stock to resume its rally as we think expectations are likely to continue to rise, and in anticipation of the next price increase.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Reliance Industries Ltd (BUY, TP: INR 3,270, +35%) Q1 23 ...
RIL reported a robust set of Q1 results across the board, with three segments reporting a record quarter. Jio Platforms rebounded to positive net additions; Reliance Retail’s footfall surpassed pre-COVID level while higher crude oil prices and fuel margins drove O2C’s growth.
- Chris Hoare
- Sumeet Singh
Bharti Singtel possible selldown/Holdco discount
Various recent media reports have indicated that Singtel aims to sell 2-4% of its stake in Bharti Airtel. While Singtel has officially dismissed the reports as media speculation, there have been subsequent reports in the Indian media about the founder, Sunil Mittal, looking to raise around US$2bn in debt, to finance an increase in his stake in Airtel. In this note, we talk about the possible deal and its implications. We have covered the prior selldown by the promoter entity in 2020 in our ear...
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Indian Mobile Bharti – Monetising Digital, Buy, pt to INR...
If we had to pick one EM Telco to make a success beyond connectivity, Bharti would be it, given strong execution across multiple verticals. We update our thinking on Fibre, Fintech and OTT, as part of our launch on Reliance Industries.
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Indian Mobile Slightly slower quarter, next quarter set t...
Q3 was a slightly slower quarter overall for the Indian telco market. However, the market continued to post double digit growth and we started to see in this quarter’s ARPU the benefits from the late November/early December price revisions.
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Global EM Telcos 8 EM Telcos we think are set to double i...
We have written numerous notes now on our view that EM Telcos are in a bull market. And in a bull market it is likely that the best performers will double. In this note, we pick out the 9 EM Telcos we think are most likely to do that on a 2-3 year time horizon. Investors who focus on these stocks we think are likely to generate outsized returns well ahead of the broader market.
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Indian Mobile US Hyperscaler/Bharti deal rumours surface ...
The announcement by Bharti of a board meeting on 28th January to assess a preferential share issue to investors other than promoters is sparking speculation that the long-rumoured deal between Bharti and a US hyperscaler is imminent. What is going on and what are the implications?
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Indian Mobile If Jio IPO's at $100bn what is Bharti worth...
Speculation that Jio might IPO at around $100bn in 2022 makes us brush off our read across valuation for Bharti. Bharti has been consistently outperforming Jio. The reported Indian Mobile EBITDA gap between the two operators is now down to 24%, having been over 100% at one point. We expect the gap to narrow further which suggests it is reasonable to value Bharti on a similar multiple to Jio, implying a valuation of Bharti’s Indian Mobile business of $80bn; and a price target of INR 1,200. This b...
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