Autos, Industrials, Smartphone and PCs Semis in 2025, a health check

Match Group (MTCH, Neutral, $34 target) Downgrade to Neutral on lower...

We are lowering our rating on MTCH to Neutral from Buy following last week’s Investor Day. Our model now reflects management’s detailed guidance, resulting in lower estimates, and we also lower our target valuation, leading to new target of $34 vs $48 previously.

Bible 3Q24 - Smartphones: Sluggish demand; 5G cycle resumes; iPhone mi...

Demand is sluggish, with the 2024 and 2025 outlooks implying slight unit growth after 2022 & 2023 down 13% & 4% respectively. With saturation and elongating replacement cycles, we see that as a best case. The December quarter iPhone guide missed consensus expectations, and we expect further downside. Replacement cycles are elongating, share gains in China have stalled, and recent datapoints support our view (Apple lowering iPhone 16 production plans). Semi revenues are back to secular growth, dr...

Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $52 target) 3Q24 Model Update

We continue to see a positive risk-reward for the stock, anchored by strong margins and FCF generation, with share buybacks protecting downside ~$30 and the potential for strategic alternatives to unlock value if Tinder cannot grow MAUs and payers consistently.

Wolfspeed: are margins in materials collapsing, or about to collapse?

Wolfspeed’s gross margin declined 16pts year-on-year in its most recent quarter. We analyze potential moving parts in today’s one slider

Wolfspeed 1FQ25: Margin pressure, substrate oversupply.Lack of scale i...

Wolfspeed reported 3Q24 (1FQ25) yesterday. Please see the link below for our take on the print.

Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $54 target) MTCH First Take: Positioning for a...

What's New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we focus on: 1. Tinder a la carte (ALC) rollout delayed, clouding outlook for the flagship app 2. Tinder MAU trends under more pressure since mid-Sept: back to school hangover? 3. Are new segment profit disclosures a precursor to “exploring strategic alternatives?” 4. What does all of this imply for the Investor Day? And the CFO transition? 5. What to do with the stock

Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $54 target) Quick Thoughts Ahead of the Print

Ahead of Wednesday’s PM’s earnings report and Thursday’s AM’s call, we review what to look for in the shareholder letter, listen for on the call, our top questions for management, potential positive and negative catalysts, and key debates, controversies, and popular topics of late, specifically: 1. Can Tinder payers return to year-over-year growth in 4Q24? 2. If so, how much payer growth is being driven by ALC only buyers vs subscribers? 3. Details on the refreshed a la carte offering 4. How lon...

Apple 4FQ24: Guide miss in line with our thesis – iPhone 16 cycle at r...

Apple reported 4FQ24 (3Q24) yesterday.

NSR Tech Policy: Google and the Antitrust State of Play

Last week and this week there was and will be significant activity in two antitrust cases against Google. In this note, we provide an update of what happened, what will happen, various outcomes investors should be thinking about and other cases involving Google and Antitrust.

Match Group (MTCH, Buy, raising target to $54 from $53) Raising 2025-...

Tinder is expected to resume sequential payer growth in 3Q24, and 4Q24 year-over-year payer growth is now in focus – will it be positive or not? With its ecosystem cleanup past the one-year anniversary, we expect investors to increasingly focus on the refresh of its a la carte (ALC) offering which is getting underway. In this note, we review where Tinder ALC stands today, key product features at each of Tinder, Bumble and Hinge, and what the new ALC offering at Tinder could entail.

iPhone 16 unlikely to drive big upgrades

Apple unveiled the latest iPhone earlier today, characterizing the device as being “built from the ground up for Apple Intelligence,” though it seems most of the Apple Intelligence features arrive later this year.

PSA Industrials / Capital Goods: Fujikura (5803 JT) Riding the AI Them...

Fujikura’s share price performance has been impressive, surging three-old YTD, boosted by AI-related data centre demand. Analyst William Nestuk reviews the FY24 Q1 performance, flags where there is upside but also notes capacity contraints.

Apple Intelligence beta: how is reception shaping up?

iPhone growth is flattening but expectations for 2025 sales now imply 6% growth, somewhat reflecting an AI refresh. In today’s work, we review the reception of key Apple Intelligence features released in iOS 18 beta, to determine whether it is legitimate at this stage to expect Apple Intelligence to foster replacement.

Bible 2Q24: Smartphones - Could consumer demand weaken while hopes for...

AI Servers Prove Too"Hot" To Handle

5 Things to Know in Investing this Week - The Trump Bitcoin Issue

Match Group (MTCH, Buy, target lowered to $53 from $55) 2Q24 Model Upd...

Our target declines to $53 from $55 owing to lower estimates largely reflecting the exit from live streaming.

FQ4'24 Earnings Preview - Reporting Tue, 08/06

Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $55 target) Sigh of Relief as 3Q Tinder payer ...

What’s New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we touch on: 1. Tinder 2Q net adds better than feared and 3Q payer guidance brings welcome relief 2. No mention of activists in letter, but Investor Day pinned for December 3. Hinge beats on RPP & Payers, #2 most downloaded dating app in collective markets 4. Exiting Live Streaming and shutting down Hakuna, but bringing Azar to the U.S. 5. Adjusted OI margins solid, but Livestreaming exit will add near-term costs 6. Share buyback excee...