Bible 1Q24 - Smartphones: mixed signals on demand; iPhone decelerating...

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): 1Q24 Results Preview: Expect another beat drive...

Xiaomi will report its 1Q24 earnings in late-May. We are expecting another set of strong results, with adjusted net profit set to grow 70% yoy and 12% qoq to Rmb5.5b. This will be primarily driven by a solid recovery in smartphone shipments, robust sales and margins at the AIoT business, as well as solid control on its operating expenses. Maintain BUY. Raise target price to HK$22.80.

Regional Morning Notes - Monday, May 13, 2024

GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation: PPI decline narrows as global commodity prices head higher. Money Supply: Weak credit demand hampering policy transmission. Sector Shipping and Ports: Prefer ports over container shipping for better risk-reward. Downgrade CSH to HOLD and OOIL to SELL after recent share price surge; switch to CSP and CMP. Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$19.40/Target: HK$22.80): 1Q24 Results Preview: Expect another beat driven by AIoT business. INDONESIA Results Erajaya Swas...

Greater China Daily: Monday, May 13, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Inflation CPI grew 0.3% yoy in Apr 24, above market expectations of 0.2% yoy and marking the third consecutive month of increase. PPI inflation came in at -2.5% yoy, up 0.3ppt, extending a one-and-a-half-year stretch of declines. However, global commodity price inflation will soon return to positive territory and is likely to support a further narrowing of China’s PPI decline. A key question is whether manufacturers will be able to pass through the cost increase. M...

2025 outlook for datacenter AI, BEVs slow, Hybrids accelerate, AMD GPU...

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Stronger confidence in EV business after Invest...

We attended Xiaomi’s investor day and visited its EV production base in Beijing. During the event, the company disclosed encouraging developments for the EV business, including: a) robust locked orders of 75,723 units, b) full-year shipment target of 100,000 units, c) better-than-expected gross margins of 5-10%, and d) accelerated production ramp-up. Maintain BUY and adjust target price to HK$21.00.

Greater China Daily: Friday, April 26, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb12.24/Target: Rmb15.00) 2023 results were satisfactory but 1Q24 revenue growth was significantly slower than our estimate. We believe weak economic conditions may continue to put pressure on revenue growth. Aier continues to pursue service excellence by offering high value-added services and products to attract patients and stay ahead of competition. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of Rmb15.00 to factor in the possible i...

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, April 26, 2024

GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb12.24/Target: Rmb15.00) 2023: Satisfactory results; weak economic conditions may cloud 2024 growth visibility. Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu (600809 CH/BUY/Rmb245.58/Target: Rmb321.00) 2023: Results in line; accelerating nationwide expansion. Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$16.60/Target: HK$21.00) Stronger confidence in EV business after Investor Day and factory visit. INDONESIA Results Unilev...

PSA Consumer Electronics: Update on Global Smartphone and PC Shipment ...

Pelham Smithers highlights some interesting trends in the global smartphone and PC markets.

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Xiaomi’s SU7 receives exceptional reception aft...

Xiaomi officially launched the highly-anticipated SU7 last Thursday. Pricing is in line with expectations at Rmb215,900-299,900 with the SU7 being positioned as a C class high-performance sedan car with strong emphasis on smart features. The initial reception is very strong, with the company receiving 88,898 orders in the first 24 hours of launch, which is far better than the market’s expectations. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$20.80.

Greater China Daily: Tuesday, April 2, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI First expansion in six months. Sector Aviation Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in profitability in 2024 with moderate international travel recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Macau Gaming Mar 24 GGR up 6% mom; May 24 Golden Week a potential catalyst. Results China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$3.68/Target: HK$4.43) 2023: Results in line; healthy channel inventory and improved operating efficiency to drive growth. Upgrade to BUY. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.4...

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, April 02, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in profitability in 2024 with moderate international travel recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.48/Target: HK$6.50) 2023: Below expectations; slower-than-expected pace of capacity expansion. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$11.26/Target: HK$19.42) 2023: Results beat expectations; watching for stabilisation of profitability in 2024. China Resources Gas (1193 HK/BUY/HK$24.9...

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): 4Q23: Beat on smartphone margins; GenAI and EV ...

Xiaomi’s 4Q23 results was a strong beat, with adjusted net profit 25% above our estimate, driven by strong margins for the smartphone business. Going forward, we expect a mild recovery in smartphone shipment, but rising material prices may impact margins. GenAI development and EV business could be the more important focus going forward. Maintain BUY. Trim target price to HK$20.80.

Greater China Daily: Wednesday, March 20, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.31/Target: HK$1.85) 2023: Below expectations; aggregates evolve as the next growth driver. Upgrade to BUY. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK/BUY/HK$18.78/Target: HK$23.00) 4Q23: Top-line beat; pivoting focus to overseas tourism. WuXi AppTec (2359 HK/SELL/HK$39.55/Target: HK$28.00) 2023: Results slightly weaker than expected; Draft Bill clouds growth outlook. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$14.86/Target: HK...

Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, March 20, 2024

GREATER CHINA Results China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.31/Target: HK$1.85): 2023: Below expectations; aggregates evolve as the next growth driver. Upgrade to BUY. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK/BUY/HK$18.78/Target: HK$23.00): 4Q23: Top-line beat; pivoting focus to overseas tourism. WuXi AppTec (2359 HK/SELL/HK$39.55/Target: HK$28.00): 2023: Results slightly weaker than expected; Draft Bill clouds growth outlook. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$14.86/Target: HK$20.80...

NSR Policy: Congressional Signals on ACP and Tax Bill

In this Weekend Update, we focus on the signs that Congress provided this past week on two issues that directly affect the finances of ISPs: the future of ACP and taxes. As to the ACP, we discuss how extension proponents apparently failed in efforts to include an ACP extension appropriation in the recently adopted short-term budget compromise. That should surprise no one but it indicates that an extension remains an uphill struggle. Still, that possibility remains on the table but there will be ...

PSA Macro: The Importance of Japan’s Belated Export Boom

Despite the yen steadily weakening against both the dollar and euro over past three years, Japan’s exports haven’t really taken off. However, the latest trade data suggests that this is finally happening. Pelham Smithers discusses the importance of Japan’s belated export boom.

PSA Market Strategy: How Japan Transformed from a Bear Market to a Bul...

In our 2010 Japan Perspective, written close to the nadir of the bear market, we discussed what was wrong with Japan, but also what it was starting to do right. Fourteen years on, the Nikkei 225 - though not yet Topix - has hit a new all-time high. This report looks at how Japan built on those things that were going right, while also starting to address what else needed to be done, and looks at whether more is needed to be done if the market rally is to continue from here.

China IT Hardware: Updates on MWC 2024 and read-through on FII from NV...

We see an improvement in China’s smartphone sales, while ongoing MWC showcased a wider user case of edge AI’s application on smartphones and PCs. On the other hand, positive comments from key AI infrastructure supply chain players and the launch of the groundbreaking video generation tool Sora had driven a rapid recovery in investment sentiment towards China’s cloud AI plays. Thus, we recommend BUY on cloud AI plays like FII, and smartphone recovery plays such as Sunny Optical. Maintain OVERWEIG...

NSR Policy: Weekend Update on Tech and Social Media Policy

In this note focused on social media, we review the heavily covered Senate hearing involving CEOs of major social media companies. As we explain, though there was bipartisan agreement that social media is causing harm to young people in the United States and that the companies who operate social media platforms could do a much better job of protecting young people from such harm, there was not the same bipartisan agreement about how to proceed legislatively to address the concerns. For example...