Telefonaktiebolaget L M Ericsson: 1 director

A director at Telefonaktiebolaget L M Ericsson bought 423,497 shares at 79.860SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the la...

Q1'25 beat driven by Ocean and Terminals

Tariffs: resilient demand, but higher costs

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK48.00) - Focus on Vyepti sales

We forecast Q1 sales c0.5% above consensus and an adj. EBITDA margin of 31.3%. We expect the strategic brands sales to rise by 18.3% YOY, including Vyepti sales of DKK913m (c2.2% above consensus). We forecast unchanged 2025 guidance for CER figures. From the pipeline, the FDA AdCom for Rexulti in PTSD is still unscheduled and the PROCEED trial has recently been expanded to additional IV doses. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to 48 (56).

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK8800.00) - Overcapacity at the gates

We find the recent share price strength surprising and likely short-lived due to a challenging supply/demand balance, only augmented by the escalating trade tensions. While we expect a Q1 beat versus consensus, we believe the company’s outlook is unlikely to satisfy buy-side expectations, and we see sizeable downside risk to the current valuation. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to DKK8,800 (10,800).

Tariffs will hurt, but cons. is too low for Q1

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

More Q1 results and a proposed delisting

The Q1 reporting season is in full swing, with results from Catena, Entra, Pandox and Wihlborgs in the past week. In addition, Aurora Eiendom announced a proposal to delist from Euronext Growth Oslo. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.00% for 2025e and 5.31% for 2026e.

Catena (Hold, TP: SEK480.00) - Strong Q1 margin, but muted activity

Solid Q1 results included a 7% consensus beat on PFPM, driven by the top line and NOI margin. We reiterate our HOLD, as we consider Catena overcapitalised and are concerned about the lack of attractive investment opportunities, particularly given a slow project market (historically the company’s highest ROI investment). In addition, we believe the valuation looks stretched versus its European logistics peers. However, we have raised our target price to SEK480 (470) and our 2026–2027e FFOps by 2–...

Solid growth potential from acquisitions

Beat driven by lower property costs

US capex still on the rise in 2025e

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Signs of sector recovery, and more Q1 results

The markets were much quieter following the Easter break, with limited news; however, the names we cover saw their shares up 2.6% on average, with Atrium Ljungberg (7.1%), SBB (7.1%) and Pandox (4.8%) the top performers. JM released its Q1 results and we reiterated our BUY, believing it has passed the earnings trough, while we reiterated our HOLDs on Corem and Fabege following their quarterly reports. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.04% for 2025e and 5.34%...

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK125.00) - Order beat, earnings miss

We view the Q1 results as soft despite strong order growth of 16% organically YOY, with all divisions contributing to the beat. A miss on adj. EBITA was driven by lower sales and a weak Facade Access (FA) margin of 9.5% due to legacy projects and lower utilisation. Alimak stated that investment decisions for new tall buildings would continue to be postponed, and legacy projects phased out through 2025. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK125 (140), having lowered our 2025–...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

TSMC & ASML signals, Auto semi recovery, and more. The Tech Weekly Wra...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 14 names we followed last week, follow the link below.