The Q1 results proved disappointing to buy-side expectations, though reasonably aligned and even bullish compared to near-term consensus. Their market commentary could raise expectations above the upper end of the potentially conservative guidance, but we struggle to see the intrinsic value when facing the bleak container markets for 2025–2026e. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to DKK9,000 (9,600).
Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.
There is a substantial discrepancy between container liners’ reported and guided revenue for Q1, as the impacts of the Red Sea disruption and resurgent freight rates are revealed. Near-term consensus could be too low, but the 2025–2026 outlook is set to be much worse than the market believes. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to DKK9,600 (9,500).
Despite a delay in our mix-driven earnings and FCF rebound case, Ericsson’s Q1 gross margin showed early signs of trends we believe should accelerate through 2024 and ultimately drive Infront consensus EPS revisions closer to our full-year adj. EBITA (17% above consensus), potentially triggering a re-rating. In our view, Ericsson’s soft market outlook commentary and implicit Q2 guidance should be seen in light of its ongoing union negotiations in Sweden amid lay-offs. We reiterate our BUY and SE...
>Underperform rating maintained, target price raised to SEK 52 vs SEK 50 - Following the publication of Q1 2024 results, we have raised our forecast for 2024 EPS by 7%, and our target price to SEK 52 vs SEK 50. The market and the timing of the recovery remains very uncertain. Furthermore, the group has not yet settled its cases with the US DoJ, meaning the threat of a further fine still hangs over it. Based on our new estimates, the valuation is relatively undemanding...
>Opinion Sous-performance maintenue, OC relevé à 52 SEK vs 50 SEK - Suite à la publication des résultats T1 24, nous relevons notre BPA 2024e de 7%, ainsi que notre OC à 52 SEK vs 50 SEK. Le marché et le timing de sa reprise reste très incertain. De surcroit, le groupe n’a pas encore réglé ses affaires juridiques avec le DoJ Américain, laissant peser la menace d’une amende supplémentaire. Sur la base de nos nouvelles estimations, la valorisation est assez peu exigeant...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.