Thematic - 2026 Outlook - "5 More Years" (55pgs)

For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( ) With EU Pharma (ex-Novo) now having reached decade high valuations vs EuroStoxx600, we believe the sector has broken out & the sustainability of the growth profile will now generate continued strong performance. Consensus 5yr sales & EPS CAGR’s stand at 4% & 7% for 15x 2026 PE. We show there is upside to this from underestimated pipelines where cons. rarely fully models “monster” drugs & from M&A which we expect to be strong at JPM ...

Morning Notes : ABI BB, AGS BB, GLPG NA, IBAB BB, UCB BB

: ABI BB, AGS BB, GLPG NA, IBAB BB, UCB BB

UCB Detailed results from Fintepla in CDD strengthen epilepsy franchis...

UCB presented detailed results of the positive phase 3 GEMZ study with Fintepla in CDKL5 deficiency disorder (CDD). The drug showed an estimated 52.7% median reduction in countable motor seizure frequency (CMSF) compared with placebo during a 14 week titration and maintenance period and a favourable safety profile. We view this as highly encouraging in this refractory epilepsy population. Given the infantile onset of CDD, we will be curious to see as of which age, patients could be included in t...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 12/05/2025

UCB : Upgrade de la guidance 2025 dans l’attente de plus d’éléments co...

UCB : 2025 guidance upgrade pending more details on profitability tren...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 05/12/2025

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Peer Kroger 3Q25 results Kinepolis: Warner and Netflix enter exclusive deal negotiations UCB: FY25 guidance raised on Bimzelx's exceptional performance

Morning Notes : UCB BB

: UCB BB

UCB Announces another FY25 guidance upgrade

UCB announced an additional upgrade to its FY25 financial guidance, where it now expects revenue to exceed € 7.6b, representing +24% y/y (previously at least € 7b), and adj. EBITDA margin to be higher than 31% (previously at least 30%). This is the company's second guidance upgrade this year and shows that UCB's commercial momentum continues its upward trajectory supported by its 5 key growth drivers, including lead product Bimzelx which saw strong momentum in HS, as well as a favourable payer m...

UCB SA: 1 director

A director at UCB SA bought 200 shares at 216.000EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing ...

Morning Notes : ABN NA, CRBN NA, ENX FP, GBLB BB, PROX BB, UCB BB

: ABN NA, CRBN NA, ENX FP, GBLB BB, PROX BB, UCB BB

UCB/Bimzelx, the best-in-disease drug in HS/BUY

We reiterate our BUY rating on UCB and increase our target price from €238 to €257 on higher expected peak sales for Bimzelx, after Moonlake's weaker-than-expected P3 results in Hidradenitis Suppurativa, as well as the successful approval of UCB's Kygevi in TK2d. We continue to view UCB's risk/reward balance as favourable, with the group pipeline accounting for only 6% of Enterprise Value. Despite some concerns regarding Bimzelx's growth trajectory over the past month, compounded by data collect...

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Strong beat driven by one-offs Alfen: Bull bear fight continues bpost: 3Q25 results in line with INGF but miss vs consensus, FY25 outlook fine-tuned to top-end CM.com: Takeover offer from Bird Coca-Cola Europacific Partners: Refreshing D'Ieteren: Belron peer Driven Brands 3Q25 talks of lower Q4, choppiness in Collision and Direct Repair Exor: Ferrari reassures with strong 3Q25, improved guidance KPN: Strategy update reassures, largely in line, with solid cash returns expec...

Morning Notes : KIN BB, ONTEX BB, UCB BB, UMI BB, DEME BB

: KIN BB, ONTEX BB, UCB BB, UMI BB, DEME BB

UCB Secures FDA approval for Kygevvi in ultra-rare disease TK2d

UCB announced that Kygevvi (doxecitine and doxribtimine) has been granted approval by the US FDA in adults and paediatric patients living with thymidine kinase 2 deficiency (TK2d), with an age of symptom onset on or before 12 years. The approval comes in line with the company's guidance of a decision before YE25, making it the first and only approved treatment in this setting. Note that TK2d is an ultra-rare genetic mitochondrial disease with no approved therapies, and has a prevalence of 1.64 p...

Benelux Morning Notes

Azelis: Appointment of Boris Cambon-Lalanne as group CFO. Belgian Telecoms: Price increase on most of the non-commercialised products and Scarlet trio. D'Ieteren: Belgian October car registrations down 7%, VW down 20%. Kendrion: Results preview; launching share buyback programme. Kinepolis: Acquires US movie theatre chain Emagine Entertainment for US$105m. Kinepolis: October box office in US/Canada and France attendance drop again. Ontex: Branded activity now fully divested. Philip...

Benelux Morning Notes

GBL: €1.7bn of GBL Capital assets sold at 9% discount; PostNL: 3Q25 results miss due to more negative mix Parcels; FY25 outlook reiterated but challenging; UCB: Bimzelx's prescription data confusion

Morning Notes : GBLB BB, PNL NA, UCB BB, AZE BB, IMCD NA

: GBLB BB, PNL NA, UCB BB, AZE BB, IMCD NA

UCB TRx noise aside, fundamentals remain strong

UCB's Bimzelx is well-positioned with strong 3-year data in HS and competitive performance across PsO, PsA, and axSpA, supporting our peak sales estimate of €5.9b by 2030. Despite premium forward P/E multiples, UCB's projected EPS CAGR (2025–2029), being >3x that of peers, means UCB continues to be an attractive name to own. Earlier in the pipeline, our deep dive into the atopic dermatitis (AD) landscape shows that phase 2a data for galovokimig is promising, with plans to advance to phase 2b. Ac...