reports
Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. : 1 director
A director at Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. bought 6,000 shares at 24.316EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 65/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ov...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
Greek Refineries (HelleniQ Energy – Motor Oil) | Margins stronger for ...
Robust H1 builds promise for the rest of the year – Following a muted – in terms of share performance – 2024, held back by sector-wide headwinds (retreating refining margins) and company-specific challenges (fire incident and MSCI exclusion in MOH’s case), Greek refineries have rebounded ytd (Total return: MOH +23%, ELPE +14%), supported by recovering margins and strong operational resilience, with prospects also looking promising for H2’25 given easy comps. Meanwhile, both companies have built ...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
Greek Refineries (HelleniQ Energy – Motor Oil) | Margins stronger for ...
Robust H1 builds promise for the rest of the year – Following a muted – in terms of share performance – 2024, held back by sector-wide headwinds (retreating refining margins) and company-specific challenges (fire incident and MSCI exclusion in MOH’s case), Greek refineries have rebounded ytd (Total return: MOH +23%, ELPE +14%), supported by recovering margins and strong operational resilience, with prospects also looking promising for H2’25 given easy comps. Meanwhile, both companies have built ...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
GREEK ENERGY | Greek Power Play Handbook: 2025 Edition
Charging in a new era; Prefer power companies over refineries – The Greek energy market underwent structural shifts in 2024, with disruptions in Eastern Europe driving high intraday volatility in electricity prices, which is likely to persist as long as Greece remains a net electricity importer. Since regulatory interventions were lifted in 2024, power generation units saw a step-up in their spark spreads, capturing 2-digit premia vs baseload prices amidst daily price spikes, while the retail ma...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
GREEK ENERGY | Greek Power Play Handbook: 2025 Edition
Charging in a new era; Prefer power companies over refineries – The Greek energy market underwent structural shifts in 2024, with disruptions in Eastern Europe driving high intraday volatility in electricity prices, which is likely to persist as long as Greece remains a net electricity importer. Since regulatory interventions were lifted in 2024, power generation units saw a step-up in their spark spreads, capturing 2-digit premia vs baseload prices amidst daily price spikes, while the retail ma...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
Motor Oil Hellas | Refine, Diversify, Overcome
Thesis intact, “windfall profits” tax just a mild temporary setback – In line with the pattern observed since 2022, refining margins continue to eclipse expectations, staying well above mid-cycle levels (H1’24 c$12/bbl vs mid-cycle $6-8/bbl), with MOH on track to report FY’24e EBITDA near €1bn (-36% yoy but >100% vs 2019). Since 2022, MOH’s strong FCF has been deployed in shareholder returns (>7.5% yield), scaling-up of RES, other value-accretive projects and improvement of the leverage profile....
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
Motor Oil Hellas | Refine, Diversify, Overcome
Thesis intact, “windfall profits” tax just a mild temporary setback – In line with the pattern observed since 2022, refining margins continue to eclipse expectations, staying well above mid-cycle levels (H1’24 c$12/bbl vs mid-cycle $6-8/bbl), with MOH on track to report FY’24e EBITDA near €1bn (-36% yoy but >100% vs 2019). Since 2022, MOH’s strong FCF has been deployed in shareholder returns (>7.5% yield), scaling-up of RES, other value-accretive projects and improvement of the leverage profile....
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
GREEK REFINERIES (HelleniQ Energy - Motor Oil) | Re(de)fining growth
Profitability holding up, valuations remain muted – Greek refineries have displayed noteworthy operational resilience through 2023, thanks to persistently strong refining margins (down just €0.8bn in 2024, when refining margins normalize to more sustainable levels. With the two stocks trading at c5x 2024e EV/EBITDA, at the low end of mid-cycle levels, we believe the current valuation does not capture the rising RES tilt in the profit mix (15-25% for HelleniQ and MOH respectively by 2025e). As su...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
GREEK REFINERIES (HelleniQ Energy - Motor Oil) | Re(de)fining growth
Profitability holding up, valuations remain muted – Greek refineries have displayed noteworthy operational resilience through 2023, thanks to persistently strong refining margins (down just €0.8bn in 2024, when refining margins normalize to more sustainable levels. With the two stocks trading at c5x 2024e EV/EBITDA, at the low end of mid-cycle levels, we believe the current valuation does not capture the rising RES tilt in the profit mix (15-25% for HelleniQ and MOH respectively by 2025e). As su...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2023 outlook | Clear and rewarding destination...
2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
MOH MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) CORINTH REFINERIES S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CCH COCA-COLA HBC AG
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
ADMIE IPTO HOLDING S.A.
QUEST QUESTBACK GROUP AS
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2023 outlook | Clear and rewarding destination...
2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
MOH MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) CORINTH REFINERIES S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CCH COCA-COLA HBC AG
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
ADMIE IPTO HOLDING S.A.
QUEST QUESTBACK GROUP AS
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Refineries | Fundamentals still healthy; regulatory intervention...
HelleniQ Energy Rating: Buy Target Price: €8.6 Motor Oil Rating: Buy Target Price: €22.5 Stock prices out of sync with fundamentals leaving positive risk-reward skew – Greek refineries are headed for a record year, with Q3 adj. EBITDA poised to triple yoy on our updated estimates following >300% growth in H1. From a price perspective, Greek Refineries have outperformed the ASE ytd (ELPE +19%, MOH +36%). Nonetheless, given the spike in 2022 profitability, there has been a massive de-rating in ...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Refineries | Fundamentals still healthy; regulatory intervention...
HelleniQ Energy Rating: Buy Target Price: €8.6 Motor Oil Rating: Buy Target Price: €22.5 Stock prices out of sync with fundamentals leaving positive risk-reward skew – Greek refineries are headed for a record year, with Q3 adj. EBITDA poised to triple yoy on our updated estimates following >300% growth in H1. From a price perspective, Greek Refineries have outperformed the ASE ytd (ELPE +19%, MOH +36%). Nonetheless, given the spike in 2022 profitability, there has been a massive de-rating in ...
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greece – Thoughts on the go: Summer bounce, time to take some chips of...
Greek stocks have bounced c11% since June lows, mirroring a slightly lower advance for Stoxx 600 (8%) triggered by a “peak inflation” narrative across equity markets and dovish signals by the Fed (or at least interpreted so by some investors/traders). Short covering, low positioning and light volumes are likely to have amplified the effect, helping the ASE erase its ytd losses (now flattish ytd). From a sector perspective, banks have led the gainers registering a c16% rally since mid-June, outpe...
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greece – Thoughts on the go: Summer bounce, time to take some chips of...
Greek stocks have bounced c11% since June lows, mirroring a slightly lower advance for Stoxx 600 (8%) triggered by a “peak inflation” narrative across equity markets and dovish signals by the Fed (or at least interpreted so by some investors/traders). Short covering, low positioning and light volumes are likely to have amplified the effect, helping the ASE erase its ytd losses (now flattish ytd). From a sector perspective, banks have led the gainers registering a c16% rally since mid-June, outpe...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Energy/Industrials | Positioning ahead of the fall
Power market in flux; prefer Mytilineos and refineries – Greek industrial/energy-exposed companies have had an eventful 2022 driven by sub-sector dynamics, general macro prospects and idiosyncratic factors. In power generation/supply, the sector remains in flux given the recent regulatory intervention, and, although generation and supply dynamics appear to broadly offset each other, there are several moving parts, not only regarding gas/carbon prices but also regulatory aspects that will determi...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Motor Oil | Record margins, record profits, increased returns
Golden Age fundamentals, valuation disconnect – Refining margins have shot up in 2022 and stand at multi-year highs propelled by a combination of factors. On the demand side, the lifting of COVID-related restrictions across most economies has led to a rebound, evidenced in strong demand for mid-distillates (diesel, jet). On the supply side, the capacity rationalization (shutdowns due to COVID and ageing infrastructure) has been followed by the disruption to Russian exports, further exacerbating ...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Motor Oil | Record margins, record profits, increased returns
Golden Age fundamentals, valuation disconnect – Refining margins have shot up in 2022 and stand at multi-year highs propelled by a combination of factors. On the demand side, the lifting of COVID-related restrictions across most economies has led to a rebound, evidenced in strong demand for mid-distillates (diesel, jet). On the supply side, the capacity rationalization (shutdowns due to COVID and ageing infrastructure) has been followed by the disruption to Russian exports, further exacerbating ...
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Panagiotis Kladis
- CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy - 2022 Outlook | Playing Tug of War
2021: “life in the fast lane" – 2021 was quite an eventful year, with swings in risk perception as initial enthusiasm about vaccine progress was followed by concerns about inflation, a pivot in central bank policy (Fed) and the impact from the Omicron variant. As a result, after a 12% return until mid-May 2021, Greek stocks were flat in the remainder of the year, affected by the general de-risking mood and some idiosyncratic headwinds (liquidity drain from capital raisings and issuance activity ...
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
PLAT THRACE PLASTICS HOLDING AND COMMERCIAL SOCIETE ANONYME
PLAIS PLAISIO COMPUTERS S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
MOH MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) CORINTH REFINERIES S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CCH COCA-COLA HBC AG
QUEST QUEST HOLDINGS SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
ADMIE IPTO HOLDING S.A.
ENTER ENTERSOFT
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Panagiotis Kladis
- CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy - 2022 Outlook | Playing Tug of War
2021: “life in the fast lane" – 2021 was quite an eventful year, with swings in risk perception as initial enthusiasm about vaccine progress was followed by concerns about inflation, a pivot in central bank policy (Fed) and the impact from the Omicron variant. As a result, after a 12% return until mid-May 2021, Greek stocks were flat in the remainder of the year, affected by the general de-risking mood and some idiosyncratic headwinds (liquidity drain from capital raisings and issuance activity ...
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
PLAT THRACE PLASTICS HOLDING AND COMMERCIAL SOCIETE ANONYME
PLAIS PLAISIO COMPUTERS S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
MOH MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) CORINTH REFINERIES S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CCH COCA-COLA HBC AG
QUEST QUEST HOLDINGS SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
ADMIE IPTO HOLDING S.A.
ENTER ENTERSOFT
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