After a string of multi-GW contracts and capex announcements, the attractiveness of cloud AI returns remains a hot question amongst investors. In this report, we build a simple framework to answer that question. We estimate Cloud AI returns from CSP disclosures and what we know about large real-world contracts, and benchmark them against what we know about the economics of traditional cloud.
With the sales of NVIDIA H200 to China, Chinese AI developers will receive a major boost in compute resources, and China’s AI development will further accelerate in 2026. That said, domestic AI chips shipments will receive minimal impact, with foreign chips acting as a “demand gap filler” while the strengthening of local supply chain remains the highest priority. We maintain our positive view on the domestic AI supply chain with preferences for WFE makers like NAURA. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Greater China Sector Update | IT Hardware We see an acceleration in China’s AI development progress in 2026, with NVIDIA successfully obtaining the US government’s approval on H200 sales to China, which will provide a major boost to the Chinese the AI application users. We also believe that the shipment volume of domestic AI chips will receive minimal impact, with foreign chips acting as a “demand gap filler” while the establishment of a capable local supply chain remains the highest priorit...
ASMPT’s 3Q25 print missed expectations on a weaker product mix and one-off restructuring costs. Revenue was largely in line with the mid-point of its guidance, but gross margin was below expectations at 35.7% due to changes in product mix and inventory write-off from the restructuring. Nevertheless, ASMPT reported solid progress with TCB in both HBM4 and advanced logic C2W/C2S, while its mainstream tools continued to register a recovery on solid AI-driven demand. Maintain BUY and raise target pr...
Greater China Company Results | ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$83.85/Target: HK$104.00) ASMPT’s 3Q25 print missed expectations on a weaker product mix and one-off restructuring costs. Revenue was largely in line with the mid-point of its guidance, but gross margin was below expectations at 35.7% due to changes in product mix and inventory write-off from the restructuring. Nevertheless, ASMPT reported solid progress with TCB in both HBM4 and advanced logic C2W/C2S, while its mainstream tools continued to r...
Top Stories Company Results | ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$83.85/Target: HK$104.00) ASMPT’s 3Q25 print missed expectations on a weaker product mix and one-off restructuring costs. Revenue was largely in line with the mid-point of its guidance, but gross margin was below expectations at 35.7% due to changes in product mix and inventory write-off from the restructuring. Nevertheless, ASMPT reported solid progress with TCB in both HBM4 and advanced logic C2W/C2S, while its mainstream tools continued to re...
AI infrastructure investments continue to surge, with consensus forecasts for top China/US hyperscalers growing over 10% and 20% qoq respectively. This should fuel AI server demand growth of 60% yoy by 2026. Consumer electronics remain strong, with iPhone 17 lead times far exceeding that of iPhone 16 and Android flagships set for further spec upgrades, which will support multi-year shipment growth. China’s automation and robotics markets are also recovering faster than expected, with humanoid ro...
ASMPT’s 2Q25 results were largely in line, with revenue at the mid-point of its guided range, while bookings were a solid beat thanks to a bulk order from smartphone clients. The sustained improvement in orders momentum likely signals the beginning of a new capex cycle, while ongoing advances in AI-related products will likely bolster investor confidence in the near term. Maintain BUY and raise target price to HK$92.40.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$63.20/Target: HK$92.40) ASMPT’s 2Q25 results were largely in line, with revenue at the mid-point of its guided range, while bookings were a solid beat thanks to a bulk order from smartphone clients. The sustained improvement in orders momentum likely signals the beginning of a new capex cycle, while ongoing advances in AI-related products will likely bolster investor confidence in the near term. Maintain BUY and raise target price to HK$92.40. Upda...
Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$63.20/Target: HK$92.40): 2Q25: Results largely in line. Solid bookings beat as mainstream tools recover; AP tools progressing well in logic and at HBM clients. Update Prudential (2378 HK/BUY/HK$98.10/Target: HK$128.00): 1H25 results preview: Expecting solid NBP growth and focusing on capital management. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC IJ/NOT RATED/Rp1,260): Disciplined strategy and portfolio diversification. MALAYSIA Update CIMB ...
1Q25 results were largely in line, with revenue at the mid-point of ASMPT’s guided range, while margins and net profit recovered sequentially. Momentum in advanced packaging tools continues to pick up, as we see new orders or progress for TCB in both memory and logic clients. However, the recovery in mainstream tools remains uncertain given the increasingly complex geopolitical situation. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$68.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI: A sharp contraction in overseas demand. Sector Healthcare: Drug innovators continue to drive market growth. Macau Gaming: Apr 25 GGR beat expectations; May Day Golden Week visitor arrivals expected to grow 4% yoy. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$52.20/Target: HK$68.00): 1Q25: Earnings disappoint; mainstream tools recovering in 2025 but visibility remains low. Maintain BUY. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/BUY/Rmb63.40/Target: Rmb70.80): 1Q25: Core net profit...
GREATER CHINA Sector Macau Gaming: Apr 25 GGR beat expectations; May Day Golden Week visitor arrivals expected to grow 4% yoy. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$52.20/Target: HK$68.00): 1Q25: Earnings disappoint; mainstream tools recovering in 2025 but visibility remains low. Maintain BUY. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/BUY/Rmb63.40/Target: Rmb70.80): 1Q25: Core net profit down 16% yoy; sequential improvement in Hainan duty-free sales. Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK/BUY/HK$18.94/Target: HK$30.00)...
The IT hardware sector registered corrections in share price in the past two weeks as market realised that contribution from the exciting GenAI-driven applications are unlikely to be meaningful in 2025. Nevertheless, the potential cost savings and efficiency boost facilitated by AI are clear and we expect investments into applications development to remain high. Maintain OVERWEIGHT and expect downstream AI applications to remain a key investment focus through 2025.
ASMPT’s 4Q24 net profit barely broke even as the slow recovery in the mainstream tools market remains a drag. 1Q25 guidance continues to be soft as the SMT solution business remains slow, but margins may widen on product mix improvements. The advanced packaging business remains the sole bright spot, with CPO and photonics joining TCB as key growth drivers in the coming years. Maintain BUY and cut target price to HK$80.00.
GREATER CHINA Economics Hong Kong Budget 2025-26 The budget balances fiscal discipline with strategic growth initiatives. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$64.05/Target: HK$80.00) 4Q24: Earnings disappoint; mainstream tools recovering in 2025 but visibility remains low. Maintain BUY. Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.66/Target: HK$13.30) 4Q24: Results miss slightly; CEO change and increased shareho...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Hong Kong Budget 2025-26 The 2025-26 Budget balances fiscal discipline with strategic growth initiatives in AI and NM development, funded by prudent bond issuance. Hong Kong positions itself for future growth amid technological transformation, with a planned deficit of 2.0% of GDP and fiscal reserves falling to eight months of expenditure. The budget speech is overall positive on the Hong Kong property sector, with the reduction in stamp duty being a highlight. Result...
TSMC provided a better-than-expected guidance for its AI accelerator business in 2025 and the next five years, and raised its capex forecasts for advanced nodes and advanced packaging. While this will not address some of the near-term concerns such as GB200 NVL systems’ production ramp-up in 1H25, a re-elevated long-term growth target can potentially provide a confidence boost to investment sentiment in the near term. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales down 10% yoy but up 8.5% wow; EVs gain on subsidy rollout. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Healthcare The challenging but rewarding journey of globalisation amid rising geopolitical risks. Internet ...
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