EME Equity Market – November 2024 Rebound in Türkiye, Romania hammered. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 3.8% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms in November. The Turkish ISE30 recouped the losses of the previous month, adding 10.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX added 4.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the PX (+2.9% mom), the ASE (+0.8% mom) and the WIG (+0.8% mom) (all in EUR terms). Following the first round of presidential elections, and the polemic and uncertainty that ensued, the BET ...
>Q3 even weaker than feared, 2024 guidance confirmed implying a better Q4 - BMW reported yesterday before trading weak Q3 earnings, below forecasts (auto EBIT -16% vs css), impacted by the braking system recall and the subdued environment in China (details our First Take). The group confirmed its revised 2024 guidance (lowered following the profit warning of 10 September), implying some recovery in Q4 (volumes, mix) on the back of supply chain normalisation. We are le...
>T3 encore plus faible qu’attendu, guidance confirmée impliquant un meilleur T4 - BMW a publié hier avant Bourse des résultats T3 faibles, inférieurs aux attentes (EBIT Auto -16% vs css), impactés par le rappel sur systèmes de freinage et l’environnement morose en Chine (détails dans First Take ici). Le groupe confirme sa nouvelle guidance 2024 (abaissée au moment du profit warning du 10/09), tablant sur une accélération au T4 (volumes, mix) avec la normalisation de ...
Our baseline scenario materialised last night: Donald Trump seems to be on course to win the US presidential election, and the choice of the electorate is unlikely to be challenged. He could end up with a majority in both houses of Congress. US equities will be the first to benefit from this development. In European equities, the biggest winners will be Energy, Media, Metals, Construction & Materials, Financial Services and Insurance. More at risk, however, are the Utilities, Spirits,...
Notre scénario central s’est concrétisé dans la nuit : Donald Trump remporte la présidentielle américaine, et le choix des électeurs ne devrait pas être contesté. Il pourrait disposer d’une majorité dans les deux assemblées. Les actions américaines en seront les premières bénéficiaires. Sur les actions européennes, les secteurs les plus gagnants seront l’Energie, les Médias, les Métaux, Construction & Materials, Financial Services, Insurance. Sont en revanche plus à risque Utilities, ...
>Q3 even weaker than feared on supply chain/China - BMW reported Q3 results that came below expectations (Autos EBIT -16% below consensus).Q3 revenues came in at € 32.4bn, -16% y-o-y, -12% q-o-q, slightly below expectations (company-compiled css at € 33.3bn, ODDO BHF€ 32.8bn) with adj. EBIT at € 1.7bn, -61% y-o-y, -56% q-o-q implying a margin of 5.2%, -600 bps y-o-y, below estimates (css at 5.0%, ODDO BHF 5.6%).Looking at individual business units, Autos ...
>Q3 even weaker than feared on supply chain/China - BMW reported Q3 results that came below expectations (Autos EBIT -16% below consensus).Q3 revenues came in at € 32.4bn, -16% y-o-y, -12% q-o-q, slightly below expectations (company-compiled css at € 33.3bn, ODDO BHF€ 32.8bn) with adj. EBIT at € 1.7bn, -61% y-o-y, -56% q-o-q implying a margin of 5.2%, -600 bps y-o-y, below estimates (css at 5.0%, ODDO BHF 5.6%).Looking at individual business units, Autos ...
Rdos. 3T'24 vs 3T'23: Ventas: 32.406 M euros (-15,7% vs -11,0% BS(e) y -11,3% consenso); EBIT: 1.696 M euros (-61,0% vs -62,5% BS(e) y -63,4% consenso); Rdos. 9meses'24 vs 9meses'23: Ventas: 105.964 M euros (-5,8% vs -4,2% BS(e) y -4,3% consenso); EBIT: 9.627 M euros (-31,6% vs -32,0% BS(e) y -32,3% consenso).
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ACCIONA ENERGÍA, SANTANDER. EUROPA: AHOLD DELHAIZE, BMW, SIEMENS, UNICREDIT. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’24 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Trump gana las elecciones A la espera de conocer el desenlace oficial, todo parece indicar que Trump habría ganado las...
EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...
Les députés ont supprimé vendredi dernier la surtaxe d’Impôt sur les Sociétés proposée par le gouvernement français dans son PLF 2025. Il serait, selon nous, hasardeux de crier victoire trop tôt, et cette disposition pourrait faire son retour durant la suite du débat budgétaire, sous la forme initialement proposée par le gouvernement ou sous une autre. Nous restons prudents sur les actions françaises, le débat budgétaire restant chaotique et pas à la hauteur des enjeux, comme le souli...
Last Friday, MEPs scrapped the exceptional additional corporate tax proposed by the French government in its PLF 2025. In our view, it would be risky to claim victory prematurely, and this provision could make a comeback during the remainder of the budget debate, in the form initially proposed by the government or in another form. We remain cautious on French equities, as the budget debate remains chaotic and fails to live up to the stakes, as underlined by Moody's downgrade of the so...
>Q3 below expectations and cautious outlook - On Friday before trading, MBG published results that came below expectations (Cars EBIT -16% vs company-collected consensus), reflecting significant margin erosion (7.3%, of which 4.7% for the Cars BU, -770bp y-o-y, -550bp q-o-q), highlighting price/mix deterioration (ASP -10% y-o-y, -6% q-o-q) and other adjustments (Chinese dealer compensation, stock depreciation and warranty provisions), details in our First Take here. ...
>T3 inférieur aux attentes et perspectives prudentes - MBG a publié vendredi avant Bourse des résultats T3 inférieurs aux attentes (EBIT Auto -16% vs css), témoignant d’une forte érosion de la marge (7,3% dont 4,7% pour la BU Auto, -770 pb y-o-y, -550 pb q-o-q), reflétant une détérioration du prix/mix (ASP -10% y-o-y, -6% q-o-q) et d’autres ajustements (soutien financier aux concessionnaires chinois, provisions pour dépréciations de stock et dépenses de garanties), ...
>Q3 results below expectations on price/mix deterioration - Mercedes-Benz just reported its Q3 results, which were below the company-compiled consensus.In detail, Q3 revenues came in at € 34.5bn, down -7% y-o-y and -6% q-o-q, below expectations (css € 35.9bn, ODDO BHF € 36.2bn). Adj. EBIT stood at € 2.5bn, -48% y-o-y, -37% q-o-q (broadly in line with css at € 2.4bn), implying a margin of 7.3%, -594bp y-o-y and -367bp q-o-q.Cars reported revenues of € 25.6bn...
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