A director at CIMB Group Holdings Berhad sold 900,000 shares at 7.830MYR and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...
3Q25: Resilient Showing; Commits To A Capital Return Programme Highlights 3Q25 earnings were in line (+2.3% yoy), supported by NOII growth and positive operating JAWS. The group declared a special dividend of up to RM760m to be paid end-Dec 25 and committed to a capital return of up to RM2b by end-2027. We raise our dividend payout assumption to 65% from 55% translating into attractive yields of 6.2%/6.6% for 2025/26 respectively. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of RM8.30 (1.18x 20...
Greater China Economics | PMI November PMI undershot expectations; manufacturing PMI was at 49.2 (+0.2pt mom) and non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5 (-0.6pt mom), the first contraction in nearly three years. With the services industry index weakened to 49.5 (-0.7pt mom). PMI data confirms growth momentum is easing, so expect more supportive policies to be rolled out soon, but for economic confidence to return, we need a sustainable bottom in the real estate sector. Sector Update | Heal...
Improving Fundamentals Depite Macro Headwinds Highlights The banking sector’s Sep 25 stats remained resilient despite macro headwinds. Loan growth inched upwards to 5.5%, asset quality improved further with GIL at historical lows and liquidity stayed healthy with LDR below 89%. We expect sector earnings to grow 3%/5% in 2025/26 respectively. Earnings resilience is underpinned by an around 5% loan growth, stable credit costs, manageable NIM pressure, and potential non-interest income upside. ...
Greater China Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. Company Results | China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$48.64/Target: HK$51.00) CMB rep...
Greater China Sector Update | Internet Data from the initial phase of the 11.11 campaign set a compelling prelude for a mid-single-digit GMV growth in 4Q25. The new phase of 11.11 is characterised by a longer cycle, simplified promotion mechanics, and deeper technological integration. Platform competition has shifted from “traffic wars” to “efficiency wars”, as AI enhances demand-supply matching and instant retail breaks offline barriers, reducing consumer decision costs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT....
Holding Steady Highlights Despite a slight uptick in 3Q25 delinquency rates, management remains confident in sustaining its net credit cost guidance with sufficient management overlays in place. The non-interest income momentum is promising, driven by strong trading and forex income, pickup in loan syndication fees, and stable investment banking income. Maintain BUY and target price of RM8.25 (1.14x 2026F P/B, 11.2% ROE). The stock remains a sector laggard, down 10% ytd vs the KLFIN Index’...
Stable Performance Amid Macro Pressures Highlights The banking sector’s Aug 25 stats remained resilient despite macro headwinds. Loan growth held steady at 5.4%, asset quality improved with GIL at historical lows, and liquidity stayed healthy with LDR below 90%. We expect sector earnings to grow 3%/5% in 2025/26 respectively. Earnings resilience is underpinned by an around 5% loan growth, stable credit costs, manageable NIM pressure, and potential non-interest income upside. Maintain OVERW...
Solid Under Pressure We expect sector earnings to grow 3%/5% in 2025/26 respectively, with a stronger rebound in 2026 as deposits reprice lower, lifting NIM (+2bp). Earnings resilience is underpinned by an about 5% loan growth, stable credit costs, manageable NIM pressure, and potential non-interest income upside. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We remain constructive on the sector. Valuations remain appealing, with the sector trading at a mean P/B of 1.10x and offering an attractive dividend yield o...
2Q25: Recovery Underway CIMB’s 2Q25 results were in line, supported by cost discipline and strong trading gains, with PPOP up 5% qoq on sustained NOII momentum. Maintain BUY and target price of RM8.25 (1.14x 2026F P/B, ROE: 11.2%). The stock remains a laggard (-8% ytd vs KLFIN - 4%), compressing valuations to an attractive 1.0x 2026 P/B, below the sector average of 1.1x, despite stronger ROE (11% vs sector’s 10%).
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Strong top-line growth and margins further hurt in 2H25 on heavy investments. Macau Gaming: Aug 25 GGR sets another post-pandemic high. Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$47.04/Target: HK$51.00): 2Q25: In-line earnings but PPOP misses expectations on muted fee and larger NIM compression. Downgrade to HOLD. Estun Automation (002747 CH/HOLD/Rmb23.63/Target: Rmb24.00): 2Q25: In line with profit guidance. Demand and profitability to improve in 2H25. Upgrade ...
Prime Beneficiary Of A Soft Landing Despite an uncertain macro backdrop from US tariffs, we upgrade the sector to OVERWEIGHT after its ytd underperformance. Resilient earnings, attractive dividends, and its position as a prime beneficiary of EM rotation from Fed easing are, in our view, key catalysts. The sector offers defensive shelter while retaining upside potential in the early phase of a cyclical recovery. We also take the opportunity to upgrade CIMB to a BUY and our sector recommendation t...
Loans Growth Tapers Amid Caution Loan growth softened to 5.1% in Jun 25 (May 25: +5.3%), driven by weaker business lending. Loan applications, particularly from businesses, also declined, likely reflecting a cautious stance amid tariff uncertainties. We maintain our 2025 loan growth forecast at 5-6%, implying a 1.4x loan-to-GDP multiplier, consistent with the historical 1.0x-1.7x range. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with a preference for defensive names like Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank.
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Rebound falters, weighed down by weaker construction and input cost pressures. Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales pressured by anti-involution initiatives. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.26/Target: HK$12.00) ...
2Q25: CIMB Niaga Results: Subdued Outcome CIMB Niaga reported 2Q25 net profit of Rp1,650m (-8.6% qoq, -4.4% yoy) bringing 1H25 earnings to Rp3,455 (+1.4% yoy). CIMB Niaga’s. Earnings were in line, with 1H25 net profit accounting for 52% of both our and consensus full-year forecasts. Earnings rose 1.4% yoy, supported by lower provisions as net credit cost declined 24bps to 65bps. However, this was partially offset by a 25bps compression in NIM to 3.96%, negative operating jaws, and softer non-int...
Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$63.20/Target: HK$92.40): 2Q25: Results largely in line. Solid bookings beat as mainstream tools recover; AP tools progressing well in logic and at HBM clients. Update Prudential (2378 HK/BUY/HK$98.10/Target: HK$128.00): 1H25 results preview: Expecting solid NBP growth and focusing on capital management. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC IJ/NOT RATED/Rp1,260): Disciplined strategy and portfolio diversification. MALAYSIA Update CIMB ...
Moderating Outlook Management flagged potential downside risks to loans growth due to continued client caution amid unfolding tariff developments. Nonetheless, relatively strong provision buffers provide protection against asset quality risks, while management remains cautiously optimistic about managing the NIM impact from the OPR cut. We maintain our HOLD rating with a lower target price of RM7.52 (1.0x 2025F P/B, 10.9% ROE) after trimming earnings by 2% to reflect weaker loan growth.
Loans Growth Improves Loans growth improved to 5.3% in May 25 (Apr 25: 5.1%), driven by stronger construction loans. We are keeping our 2025 loans growth estimates at 5-6% (recently revised downwards from 6-7% on slower GDP growth forecasts). This implies a 1.4x loans to GDP growth multiplier which is broadly in line with the historical range of 1.0x- 1.70x. Maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring defensive plays like Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank.
INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlight Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ/NOT RATED/Rp328) A clear turning point. MALAYSIA Sector Banking Loans growth improved to 5.3% from 5.1% in May 25. The absence of strong earnings catalysts has prompted us to maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Results Sapura Energy (SAPE MK/BUY/RM0.05/Target: RM0.07) 1QFY26: Core losses are in line on poorer rig utilisation and lu...
Digital Banks – A Complement, Not A Threat Three of Malaysia’s five licensed digital banks have begun operations. However, with lending still limited and a RM3b asset cap in place during their early years, they are unlikely to pose a near-term threat to traditional banks. Established banks continue to advance their own digital agendas, and retain broader product capabilities and distribution networks. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with our sector top picks skewed more to defensive and undervalued bank...
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