Loans Growth Tapers Amid Caution Loan growth softened to 5.1% in Jun 25 (May 25: +5.3%), driven by weaker business lending. Loan applications, particularly from businesses, also declined, likely reflecting a cautious stance amid tariff uncertainties. We maintain our 2025 loan growth forecast at 5-6%, implying a 1.4x loan-to-GDP multiplier, consistent with the historical 1.0x-1.7x range. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with a preference for defensive names like Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank.
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Rebound falters, weighed down by weaker construction and input cost pressures. Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales pressured by anti-involution initiatives. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.26/Target: HK$12.00) ...
2Q25: CIMB Niaga Results: Subdued Outcome CIMB Niaga reported 2Q25 net profit of Rp1,650m (-8.6% qoq, -4.4% yoy) bringing 1H25 earnings to Rp3,455 (+1.4% yoy). CIMB Niaga’s. Earnings were in line, with 1H25 net profit accounting for 52% of both our and consensus full-year forecasts. Earnings rose 1.4% yoy, supported by lower provisions as net credit cost declined 24bps to 65bps. However, this was partially offset by a 25bps compression in NIM to 3.96%, negative operating jaws, and softer non-int...
Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$63.20/Target: HK$92.40): 2Q25: Results largely in line. Solid bookings beat as mainstream tools recover; AP tools progressing well in logic and at HBM clients. Update Prudential (2378 HK/BUY/HK$98.10/Target: HK$128.00): 1H25 results preview: Expecting solid NBP growth and focusing on capital management. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC IJ/NOT RATED/Rp1,260): Disciplined strategy and portfolio diversification. MALAYSIA Update CIMB ...
Moderating Outlook Management flagged potential downside risks to loans growth due to continued client caution amid unfolding tariff developments. Nonetheless, relatively strong provision buffers provide protection against asset quality risks, while management remains cautiously optimistic about managing the NIM impact from the OPR cut. We maintain our HOLD rating with a lower target price of RM7.52 (1.0x 2025F P/B, 10.9% ROE) after trimming earnings by 2% to reflect weaker loan growth.
A director at CIMB Group Holdings Berhad sold 1,176,200 shares at 6.546MYR and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two...
Loans Growth Improves Loans growth improved to 5.3% in May 25 (Apr 25: 5.1%), driven by stronger construction loans. We are keeping our 2025 loans growth estimates at 5-6% (recently revised downwards from 6-7% on slower GDP growth forecasts). This implies a 1.4x loans to GDP growth multiplier which is broadly in line with the historical range of 1.0x- 1.70x. Maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring defensive plays like Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank.
INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlight Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ/NOT RATED/Rp328) A clear turning point. MALAYSIA Sector Banking Loans growth improved to 5.3% from 5.1% in May 25. The absence of strong earnings catalysts has prompted us to maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Results Sapura Energy (SAPE MK/BUY/RM0.05/Target: RM0.07) 1QFY26: Core losses are in line on poorer rig utilisation and lu...
Digital Banks – A Complement, Not A Threat Three of Malaysia’s five licensed digital banks have begun operations. However, with lending still limited and a RM3b asset cap in place during their early years, they are unlikely to pose a near-term threat to traditional banks. Established banks continue to advance their own digital agendas, and retain broader product capabilities and distribution networks. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with our sector top picks skewed more to defensive and undervalued bank...
1Q25: Staying Cautious CIMB’s 1Q25 results are in line, supported by lower provisions, though pre-provision profit declined yoy. Maintain HOLD, with target price unchanged at RM7.70 (1.13x 2025F P/B, 11.1% ROE). While valuations at 1.03x P/B are fair, they align with the historical mean. We remain cautious of forex weakness from regional operations and credit costs amid regional macro headwinds. With earnings growth capped at 3% amid NIM pressure, the risk-reward is balanced, underpinned by a 5....
GREATER CHINA Strategy China Property & Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Manageable pressure in mainland property market; improved tourism and retail sales momentum in Hong Kong. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances in May Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Results CIMB Group (CIMB MK/HOLD/RM6.93/Target: RM7.70) 1Q25: Earnings in line, underpinned by lower provisions. Mai...
Moderating Outlook Management flagged two key downside risks to global trade from the ongoing US tariffs: slower loan growth and potential policy rate cuts, which could pressure NIM. Nonetheless, strong provision buffers offer a solid cushion against asset quality risks. Maintain HOLD on CIMB Group with a lower target price of RM7.70 (1.13x 2025F P/B, 11.1% ROE) after trimming earnings by 5% to reflect these headwinds. Despite value having emerged, the stock continues to trade at historical mean...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls Add Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit on JBM Healthcare and CR Land. Sector Aviation Airlines: 1Q25 results below expectations. Weak fuel prices to support full-year performance. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. INDONESIA Strategy 1Q25 Results Recap ...
Loan Growth Tapers Off Loan growth moderated slightly to 5.2% in Mar 25 (Feb 25: +5.3%), driven by softer household lending. In tandem with our downward revision of the 2025 GDP forecast to 4.0% (from 4.8%), we lower our system loan growth projection to a more tempered 5-6% range (previously 6-7%). We maintain our MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring top sector picks with resilient earnings profiles and potential upside from capital management initiatives.
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Monetisation potential and trends of AI agent from the launch of Manus AI. Results CMOC (3993 HK/BUY/HK$6.72/Target: HK$8.70) 2024: Above expectations; copper output up 55% yoy to 650,161 tonnes. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/BUY/HK$12.58/Target: HK$11.62) 2024: Results in line; more volatile business environment in 2025 but limited valuation ...
2H24 Financial Stability Report: Banking System Remains Sound BNM’s 2H24 Financial Stability Report highlights that while Malaysia is not fully insulated from external risks like US trade policies and geopolitical tensions, the banking system is well-positioned to weather potential headwinds given the strong provision buffers and liquidity position. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT as the risk-reward remains balanced.
Finely Balanced – Focus On Laggards We expect sector earnings growth to ease to 7% in 2025 (from 9% in 2024) due to slower non-interest income growth. While earnings resilience and attractive dividends support the investment case, valuations at +0.5SD above mean and foreign shareholding that is near a five-year high may limit upside. We maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring laggards RHB Bank, Hong Leong Bank, and Public Bank for their better riskreward, while adding AMMB for potential capit...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on JBM Healthcare. Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales decline wow due to seasonal factors. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay SV. Results Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company (1833 HK/BUY/HK$7.72/Target:HK$11.00) 2024: Satisfactory results; expect ...
4Q24: Potential Downside Risk To NIM CIMB’s 4Q24 earnings were in line, supported by a lower effective tax rate, while PBT remained flat. With potential NIM downside risk, limited cost-cutting opportunities, +1SD valuations, and a 10-year-high foreign shareholding (35.4%), the stock faces profit-taking risks. Maintain HOLD with a target price of RM8.12 (1.18x 2025F P/B, 11.6% ROE).
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