Strategy For ‘Trump-dora’s’ Box (Prolonged Iran Conflict) Highlights While there is fresh optimism of the US’ touted 15-point plan to close the global economic Pandora’s box that was pried open by US-Israel attack on Iran, we provide a current damage report and explore a protracted conflict scenario. Malaysia remains a net exporter of oil & gas (O&G), but there are wide concerns that the government deficit will significantly widen under the scenario of the Brent crude oil price sustaining we...
Seizing Opportunity Amid Uncertainty Highlights The sector continues to offer attractive dividend yields in excess of 5%, with further capital management upside remaining intact. Even with a severe case scenario of a 50bp OPR cut, we estimate sector earnings would decline by only ~6%, with dividend yields still holding at an attractive ~5.2%, Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Amid the ongoing Middle East geopolitical uncertainties, we adopt a barbell strategy, favouring Public Bank and Hong Leong Bank ...
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity Economic activity in 2M26 broadly surprised to the upside. Industrial production accelerated to 6.3% yoy, while retail sales recovered to 2.8% yoy. FAI ytd rebounded to 1.8% yoy, beating expectations of a contraction, supported by strong infrastructure spending and a marked improvement in property FAI ytd to −11.1% yoy. However, it remains to be seen if the rebound is sustainable, as February’s PMI remained in contractionary territory at 49.0. Se...
4Q25 Results Wrap-Up: Improving Breadth And Earnings Visibility Lay Foundation For A Firmer 2026 Highlights The substantial improvements in market earnings breadth in the 4Q25 results season reinforces our view of improving corporate earnings momentum in 2026. Large-cap domestic proxies which topped expectations were amply rewarded, notably Sunway Construction, Sunway Bhd, Sime Darby, KPJ Healthcare and Tenaga Nasional. Strategy: Selective, favouring liquid large-cap proxies. Against a flu...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Seazen’s C-REIT application signals improving financing channels. Sector fundamentals remain weak, with 2M26 developers’ contract sales and major cities’ new-home data still under pressure, despite relatively resilient secondary transactions. Second-hand property prices modestly recovered mom in four Tier 1 cities. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT but see potential policy after the March NPC. Our top pick is CR Land, trading at 0.65x 26PB, 0.6SD below mean...
Greater China Sector Update | Healthcare The HSHCI fell by 4.0%, underperforming the HSI which decreased mildly by 0.3% in 16-27 Feb 26. AI-related names such as InSilico, Xtalpi, Medlive, Ali Health, and JD Health experienced the largest fluctuation and significant declines during this period. As globalisation gains momentum, we navigate the complexities of global market dynamics and competition. Chinese healthcare companies are making significant breakthroughs and seizing a growing share of t...
4Q25: Resilient Showing Despite Forex Headwinds Highlights 4Q25 earnings are in line (+6% yoy), supported by NOII growth and lower provisions. Moving into 2026, we forecast a similar payout assumption (65% inclusive of special dividends), which translates into a yield of 6.1%. Maintain BUY and target price of RM9.30 (1.28x 2026F P/B, 11.7% ROE). The stock offers the highest dividend yield among domestic large-cap banks at 6.3% for 2026.
4Q25: Supported By Lower Provisions Highlights CIMB Niaga reported 4Q25 net profit of Rp1,608m (-11.3% qoq, -5.5% yoy), bringing FY25 earnings to Rp6,877 (+0.7% yoy). Results were in line, with FY25 net profit at 97% of both our and consensus full-year forecasts. CIMB Niaga’s FY25 earnings were largely flat as a 12bp NIM compression and negative operating jaws were offset by lower provisions, supported by improving asset quality (GIL ratio declining to 3.1% from 4.1%). NIM was weighed down b...
Two Directors at CIMB Group Holdings Berhad sold 1,125,000 shares at between 8.326MYR and 8.430MYR. The significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's direct...
Steady Fundamentals With Capital Management Upside Highlights The banking sector’s Nov 25 stats remained resilient despite macro headwinds. Loan growth was at 5.2%, GIL ratio near historical lows and liquidity stayed healthy. We expect sector earnings to grow 3%/5% in 2025/26 respectively. Earnings resilience is underpinned by an around 5% loan growth, stable credit costs, stable NIM in 2026, and potential non-interest income upside. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We remain constructive on the secto...
Greater China Economics | PMI December Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, back in the expansionary zone for the first time since March. Non-manufacturing PMI also improved at 50.2 (+0.7pt mom), driven by a rebound in construction activity, while services PMI remained slightly contractionary pointing to weak domestic demand. Enterprise PMI showed divergent trends, with large firms leading the improvement. Overall, the December data points to uneven recovery despite the positive headline numbers....
3Q25: Resilient Showing; Commits To A Capital Return Programme Highlights 3Q25 earnings were in line (+2.3% yoy), supported by NOII growth and positive operating JAWS. The group declared a special dividend of up to RM760m to be paid end-Dec 25 and committed to a capital return of up to RM2b by end-2027. We raise our dividend payout assumption to 65% from 55% translating into attractive yields of 6.2%/6.6% for 2025/26 respectively. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of RM8.30 (1.18x 20...
Greater China Economics | PMI November PMI undershot expectations; manufacturing PMI was at 49.2 (+0.2pt mom) and non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5 (-0.6pt mom), the first contraction in nearly three years. With the services industry index weakened to 49.5 (-0.7pt mom). PMI data confirms growth momentum is easing, so expect more supportive policies to be rolled out soon, but for economic confidence to return, we need a sustainable bottom in the real estate sector. Sector Update | Heal...
Improving Fundamentals Depite Macro Headwinds Highlights The banking sector’s Sep 25 stats remained resilient despite macro headwinds. Loan growth inched upwards to 5.5%, asset quality improved further with GIL at historical lows and liquidity stayed healthy with LDR below 89%. We expect sector earnings to grow 3%/5% in 2025/26 respectively. Earnings resilience is underpinned by an around 5% loan growth, stable credit costs, manageable NIM pressure, and potential non-interest income upside. ...
Greater China Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. Company Results | China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$48.64/Target: HK$51.00) CMB rep...
Greater China Sector Update | Internet Data from the initial phase of the 11.11 campaign set a compelling prelude for a mid-single-digit GMV growth in 4Q25. The new phase of 11.11 is characterised by a longer cycle, simplified promotion mechanics, and deeper technological integration. Platform competition has shifted from “traffic wars” to “efficiency wars”, as AI enhances demand-supply matching and instant retail breaks offline barriers, reducing consumer decision costs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT....
Holding Steady Highlights Despite a slight uptick in 3Q25 delinquency rates, management remains confident in sustaining its net credit cost guidance with sufficient management overlays in place. The non-interest income momentum is promising, driven by strong trading and forex income, pickup in loan syndication fees, and stable investment banking income. Maintain BUY and target price of RM8.25 (1.14x 2026F P/B, 11.2% ROE). The stock remains a sector laggard, down 10% ytd vs the KLFIN Index’...
Stable Performance Amid Macro Pressures Highlights The banking sector’s Aug 25 stats remained resilient despite macro headwinds. Loan growth held steady at 5.4%, asset quality improved with GIL at historical lows, and liquidity stayed healthy with LDR below 90%. We expect sector earnings to grow 3%/5% in 2025/26 respectively. Earnings resilience is underpinned by an around 5% loan growth, stable credit costs, manageable NIM pressure, and potential non-interest income upside. Maintain OVERW...
Solid Under Pressure We expect sector earnings to grow 3%/5% in 2025/26 respectively, with a stronger rebound in 2026 as deposits reprice lower, lifting NIM (+2bp). Earnings resilience is underpinned by an about 5% loan growth, stable credit costs, manageable NIM pressure, and potential non-interest income upside. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We remain constructive on the sector. Valuations remain appealing, with the sector trading at a mean P/B of 1.10x and offering an attractive dividend yield o...
2Q25: Recovery Underway CIMB’s 2Q25 results were in line, supported by cost discipline and strong trading gains, with PPOP up 5% qoq on sustained NOII momentum. Maintain BUY and target price of RM8.25 (1.14x 2026F P/B, ROE: 11.2%). The stock remains a laggard (-8% ytd vs KLFIN - 4%), compressing valuations to an attractive 1.0x 2026 P/B, below the sector average of 1.1x, despite stronger ROE (11% vs sector’s 10%).
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.