reports
- Yusra Beg
Pakistan Banks – 2QCY23 Result Previews - Strong core performance to c...
* Pre-tax 2QCY23 profits for the IMS Banking Universe are expected to rise 10%QoQ, reflecting strong core performance. However, net earnings may come off by 15%QoQ due to retrospective impact of super tax (10% vs. 4% previously). Payouts should remain broadly intact. * Domestic asset quality has remained resilient, which should keep the cost of risk in check. Impairment, if any, should also be contained compared to the last few quarters. We expect MEBL to stand out due to the lagged ass...
- Yusra Beg
Pakistan Banks: Returning conviction
* With the IMF staff-level agreement in place, the much needed breathing space for Pakistan's economy reinforces our liking for the banking sector. The absence of banks from debt restructuring in Zambia and Sri Lanka also provides comfort if this conversation crops up again in Pakistan next year. * 1QCY23 results indicate underlying profitability is strong, on rising margins and resilient asset quality. Our 2023-27f earnings estimates remain broadly unchanged, even as we conservatively ...
- Yusra Beg
Bank Al Habib: 1QCY23 Review - Lower provisioning charge and Fx gains ...
BAHL has posted 1QCY23 NPAT of PKR10.6bn (EPS: PKR9.56), up a massive 115% YoY and 6.4x QoQ. This is an impressive result, much higher than our estimated PKR5.81/sh, with the deviation primarily stemming from significantly lower provisions of PKR980mn vs. PKR10.4bn in the previous quarter and very high Fx income. 1QCY23 RESULT HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE: * Net interest income came in line with projections at PKR24.6bn – up 54% YoY and 8% QoQ on strong margin expansion amid asset repricing. * BA...
- Yusra Beg
Bank Al Habib: 4QCY22 Review - Large provisioning charge leads to earn...
BAHL has posted 4QCY22 NPAT of PKR1.7bn (EPS: PKR1.50), down 63% YoY and 69% QoQ. This takes CY22 NPAT to PKR16.7bn (EPS: PKR15.01) down 10% YoY. This is a very weak result by BAHL with the deviation (vs. our 4QCY22 estimated EPS of PKR4.90) stemming from a large PKR10.4bn provisioning charge and a higher effective tax rate. Results were accompanied with a dividend of PKR7.0/sh – higher than our estimated DPS of PKR6.5/sh. 4QCY22 RESULT HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE: * Net interest income came in line ...
- Yusra Beg
Pakistan Banks: 4QCY22 Result Previews - NII growth may be negated by ...
We estimate the IMS Banking Universe to report flat sequential earnings in 4QCY22 (up 19% YoY), as we incorporate significantly lower Fx income, sticky total provisions and higher admin expenses. These factors should offset sequentially higher NII. UBL may stand out in terms of sequential profit growth, given its low base (one-off impairment in the previous quarter). In general, there is room for minor negative surprises on payouts across our coverage, with mark-to-market bond repricing pushi...
- Yusra Beg
Bank Al Habib: 3QCY22 Review: Growth remains intact, inline
BAHL has posted 3QCY22 NPAT of PKR5.4bn (EPS: PKR4.89), up 10%YoY and 17%QoQ. This takes 9MCY22 NPAT to PKR15.0bn (EPS: PKR13.52) up 7%YoY. The result is inline with our estimated EPS of PKR5.0. Key result highlights include a high provisioning charge of PKR1.8bn (vs. an estimated PKR600mn) and high admin expenses (up 46%YoY crossing PKR14bn) – both of which were offset by strong revenue growth and high Fx income (PKR2.6bn). BAHL pays out dividend on a full year basis. 3QCY22 Results Highligh...
- Yusra Beg
Bank Al Habib: 2QCY22 review – Strong base set for swift earnings grow...
BAHL has posted 2QCY22 NPAT of PKR4.6bn (EPS: PKR4.19), flat YoY and lower by 6% QoQ. This takes 1HCY22 NPAT to PKR9.6bn (EPS: PKR8.63), up 5% YoY. The result is above our estimated EPS of PKR3.50, with the deviation primarily stemming from higher than expected Fx gains of PKR2.5bn. There was no accompanied interim payout (as expected), with BAHL sticking to its full-year payout policy. 2QCY22 RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS: * Net interest income came in line with projections at PKR18.2bn – up 13% QoQ ...
- Raza Jafri
- Yusra Beg
Bank Al Habib: 1QCY22 review – Strong core revenue offset by high admi...
BAHL has posted consolidated NPAT of PKR4.9bn (EPS: PKR4.45) in 1QCY22, up 7%yoy and 9%qoq. The result was inline with our projected EPS of PKR4.40, with higher net interest income and fee being offset by a jump in admin expenses. BAHL did not announce any dividend as historically it announces a full year payout only. KEY HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE: * Strong net interest income of PKR16.0bn, up 22%yoy / 13%qoq with margin expansion likely coming through, on assets re-pricing after the interest rate ...
- Yusra Beg
Bank Al Habib: 4QCY21 Review: Highest dividend payout since 2016
BAHL has posted 4QCY21 NPAT of PKR4.5bn (EPS: PKR4.08), down 8% qoq and 4% yoy. This takes CY21 NPAT to PKR18.6bn (EPS: PKR16.72) up 4% yoy. The 4Q result is slightly below our estimated EPS of PKR4.33, with the deviation primarily stemming from higher than expected admin expenses (PKR10.4bn vs. an estimated PKR9.8bn) which were offset by strong NFI. Results were accompanied with a bumper PKR7.0/sh final cash dividend, which is the highest BAHL has paid out since 2016 (in % payout terms) and ...
- Hamza Kamal
BAHL_3QCY21 Result Review (above expectation), (AKD, Off the Analyst's...
AKD, Off the Analyst's Desk BAHL_3QCY21 Result Review (above expectation) Bank AL Habib Limited (BAHL) announced its 9MCY21 results today where the bank reported earnings of PkR13.8bn (EPS: PkR12.6) compared to PkR13.2bn (EPS: PkR12.0) in the same period last year. The result was above our expectation. For 3QCY21, earnings stood at PkR4.43/sh, +6.6%QoQ/ down 21.0%YoY where major deviation from our estimates occurred on account of higher than expected FX income (3QCY21: PkR848mn vs. PkR399mn...
- Yusra Beg
Bank Al Habib: 3QCY21 review – strong platform for growth
BAHL has posted 3QCY21 NPAT of PKR4.9bn (EPS: PKR4.43), up 9% qoq but down 18% yoy. This takes 9MCY21 NPAT to PKR14.0bn (EPS: PKR12.64) up 6% yoy. The result is above our projected EPS of PKR4.0, with the deviation primarily stemming from much stronger fx gains of PKR848mn vs. our estimated PKR400mn. BAHL did not announce any interim dividends, in line with projections. 3QCY21 RESULT HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE: Net interest income came in line with projections at PKR14.0bn – flat qoq and lower 18% yo...
- Hamza Kamal
EPCL_UBL & BAHL_9MCY21E Result Previews, (AKD Daily, Oct 15, 2021)
AKD Daily EPCL_UBL & BAHL_9MCY21E Result Previews, EPCL to post 3QCY21 EPS of PkR3.38: Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd (EPCL) is slated to announce its 9MCY21 result (15th Oct’21), where we expect the company to post 3QCY21 NPAT of PkR3.1bn (EPS: PkR3.38), as compared to PkR1.88bn (EPS: PkR2.07) in the same period last year. This will take 9MCY21 NPAT to PkR10.34bn (EPS: PkR11.37) vs. PkR2.1bn (EPS: PkR2.31) in 9MCY20. The expected earnings for the quarter primarily emanates from higher offtakes...
- Yusra Beg
Pakistan Banks – 3QCY21f Result Previews
RESULTS MAY NOT EXCITE, BUT A RALLY IS OVERDUE * IMS Banks Universe is expected to report sequentially flat results (-2%yoy) for 3QCY21. Stable margins and strong balance sheet growth should help lift NII, but sequentially higher provisions and lower capital gains may limit bottom-line growth, in our view. * We expect overall provisions to rise in 3Q due to potential equity impairments compared with reversals in 2Q. Loan provisions may normalize in 3Q, but we do not rule out the possibi...
- Yusra Beg
Pakistan Banks: Nearing a rebound
* 2QCY21 results reinforce our positive stance on Pakistan Banks. Pre-tax profits were up a modest 11% qoq and 8% yoy but were mostly beats, led by a significantly lower cost of risk with reversals in some cases, rebounding net interest income and normalized fee. * We raise our CY21/22f EPS estimates by 7% on average as we incorporate improved revenue (margins + balance sheet growth) and stronger asset quality. Interest rate increases now appear to be closer on the horizon and can be a ...
- Yusra Beg
Bank Al Habib: 2QCY21 review – Earnings beat as NII depicts a sharp qo...
BAHL has posted 2QCY21 NPAT of PKR4.5bn (EPS: PKR4.05), up 2%yoy/ down 3%qoq. This takes 1HCY21 NPAT to PKR9.1bn (EPS: PKR8.21) up 26%yoy. The result is above our projected EPS of PKR3.61, with the deviation stemming from a sharper than expected lift in NII to PKR14.3bn (vs. estimated PKR13.8bn), and lower than expected provisions (PKR217mn vs. an estimated PKR400mn). BAHL did not announce any interim dividends, in line with projections. 2QCY21 RESULT HIGHLIGHTS * Net interest income came in...
- Yusra Beg
Pakistan banks: Earnings come off a high base in 2QCY21
IMS Banking Universe is expected to report a modest 7%yoy decline (flat sequentially) in 2QCY21 results. Lower NII, following the sharp reduction in interest rates from last year and large capital gains, is the major drag on yoy profitability. However, NII should lift sequentially as margins have bottomed out and balance sheet growth is strong. Loan provisions were soft in 1QCY21 and we expect this trend to have continued in 2QCY21. Covid-19 remains relevant but full lockdowns were avoided an...
- Yusra Beg
Pakistan Banks: Additional tax proposed for banks to increase lending
As per a news report, the government is looking to impose a 2.5% additional tax on Pakistan Banks if the Advance-to-Deposit ratio (ADR) falls between 40-50%. For banks with ADR under 40% the rate of additional taxation will be 5%. The purpose is to encourage banks to grow loan books and is a form of directed lending, similar to the recent push towards lending to the construction and allied sectors. Given that systemic ADR stands at 45% (as at March’21), there will be an impact even if a timel...
- Yusra Beg
Bank Al Habib: Initiation of coverage – Great at what it does!
We initiate coverage on Bank AL Habib Ltd. (BAHL) with a Buy rating and December 2021 TP of PKR89/sh. BAHL is the foremost trade finance bank in Pakistan, demonstrates best-in-class asset quality, and commands strong customer loyalty. It has successfully navigated tough economic conditions in the past, a track record that has endured during the coronavirus pandemic. Pakistani exporters have proven to be resilient and the outlook remains encouraging, particularly for the textile sector. This h...
Bank Al-Habib Limited: 1 director
A director at Bank Al-Habib Limited sold 69,042 shares at 66.250PKR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...
- Hamza Kamal
BAHL: Trading at unjustified valuations (AKD Daily, Apr 08, 2021)
AKD Daily BAHL: Trading at unjustified valuations We maintain our buy rating on Bank Alhabib limited (BAHL) with a Dec’21TP of PkR96.4/sh offering an upside of 56.2% from last close. The stock is currently trading at a CY21F P/B of 0.8x, at a discount of 17.1% vis-à-vis universe’s multiples based on ROE to PB compared to a premium of 16.8% in the past 3 years. Cheap valuations compensate for bank’s static earnings growth profile in the medium run (CY21-23F CAGR of 0.5%) following, i) high ...
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