What’s New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we focus on: 1. 2Q tariff impacts mitigated by inventory pull forward, Essentials increasingly important 2. AWS impacted by variable migrations/sales cycles, AI capacity constraints easing in 2H 3. 2Q25 margins impacted by seasonal SBC and Kuiper
Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up on our initial analysis to evaluate the impact on TSMC with more precision. This follows our recent deep dives on the impact on Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD/Intel, and Semicap. Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk. Please see the link below for more details.
On Monday, we analyzed GOOGL and META’s potential exposure to China-based advertisers HERE, and discussed META’s exposure more HERE. Last night, SNAP cited weakness from advertisers impacted by changes to the de mimimus exemption as one example of the macro uncertainty that led it to pull 2Q25 guidance (see HERE for full takeaways). Led by Temu and Shein, there is likely high overlap between China-based retailers and those impacted by de minimis exemption changes.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.