After a string of multi-GW contracts and capex announcements, the attractiveness of cloud AI returns remains a hot question amongst investors. In this report, we build a simple framework to answer that question. We estimate Cloud AI returns from CSP disclosures and what we know about large real-world contracts, and benchmark them against what we know about the economics of traditional cloud.
Last week, we published our updated view on semicap, assessing the implications for WFE, of AI spending reaching $2-3tn in 2030. For the updated associated view on each semicap name, summarized in a single slide, follow the link below.
The last earnings season provided tangible indications that both 2026 and 2027 will be very strong growth years for AI infrastructure, a view confirmed by TSMC yesterday. Please see the link for the implications and our updated view on semicap vendors.
Thanks to higher memory prices, Sony has a tough couple of years ahead, which is a pity, because the firm’s achievements in FY25 should have set it on a path to solid earnings growth in both years. Problematically, Sony is now heavily exposed to decisions by others – notably Apple’s iPhone pricing – and the outlook could be considerably worse than Pelham Smithers outlines in this earnings preview for FY25 and beyond.
This note contains two articles related to Sony: One highlighting how November sales of the 5-yr-old PS5 is outselling the Switch 2 and an update on Sony’s new game Marathon. It is due in next year but PSA’s gaming expert, Pelham Smithers, is not expecting much.
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