reports
- Chris Hoare
- Paula Ruth
Indosat (ISAT IJ) - 1Q24: EBITDA Up 22% yoy With Stable EBITDA Margin ...
ISAT reported 1Q24 EBITDA of Rp6.5t, up 22% yoy (+0.6% qoq), in line with our and consensus expectations, thanks to mobile data (+14% yoy) and multimedia, data communication, and internet revenue (+36% yoy). The cellular subscriber base slightly expanded 2.3% yoy (mostly from outer Java). ISAT’s ARPU jumped 14% yoy, but slightly declined 3% qoq due to seasonality. We conservatively expect modest EBITDA growth (+6% yoy) in 2024. Downgrade to HOLD. Target price: Rp11,400.
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Monday, May 6, 2024
Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ/BUY/Rp123/Target: Rp270): 1Q24: Records positive EBITDA for the first time in its history. GoTo GoJek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/HOLD/Rp66/Target: Rp70): 1Q24: Loss improves by 77.7% − ahead of expectations. Indosat (ISAT IJ/HOLD/Rp10,625/Target: Rp11,400): 1Q24: EBITDA up 22% yoy with stable EBITDA margin vs 4Q23. Downgrade to HOLD. Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ/BUY/Rp5,025/Target: Rp7,300): 1Q24: NPAT rises 17.8% yoy on robust toll revenue growth. Results within expectations. TRADERS’...
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Jonathan Koh
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Paula Ruth
- Philip Wong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, May 06, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer: Tourism and catering strong performances during the Labour Day holiday. INDONESIA Results Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ/BUY/Rp123/Target: Rp270): 1Q24: Records positive EBITDA for the first time in its history. GoTo GoJek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/HOLD/Rp66/Target: Rp70): 1Q24: Loss improves by 77.7% − ahead of expectations. Indosat (ISAT IJ/HOLD/Rp10,625/Target: Rp11,400): 1Q24: EBITDA up 22% yoy with stable EBITDA margin vs 4Q23. Downgrade to HOLD. Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ/BUY/Rp5...
- Chris Hoare
Indonesian Telcos Q4 23 review: Strong execution from XL and Indosat;...
Despite Telkom being hit by a series of one-offs in Q4, industry mobile revenue and ARPU trends are still reflective of the benign competitive landscape. EBITDA also improved for both XL and Indosat, with capex intensity improved across the board. Moreover, recent news flow suggests that the XL and Smartfren merger is closer than before. Finally, we also raised our price target for Indosat to IDR12.5k from IDR11k as we layer on higher broadband revenue as it vies for share in the fixed industry.
- Chris Hoare
Xl Axiata Tbk PT: 1 director
A director at Xl Axiata Tbk PT bought 1,000,000 shares at 2,290.000IDR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...
- Paula Ruth
Indosat (ISAT IJ) - 4Q23: Net Profit Jumped 66% Yoy From Sale And Leas...
ISAT’s 2023 EBITDA grew strongly by 23% yoy, above our expectations but in line with consensus’. After acquiring MNC Play’s subscribers, ISAT’s number of home broadband subscribers rose to 337,000 subscribers in 4Q23 vs 6,000 subscribers in 3Q23. ISAT targets to achieve 8-10% of the home broadband market by 2026. We expect both revenue and EBITDA of ISAT to grow by 6% yoy in 2024. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp11,300.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Monday, February 12, 2024
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Syariah (BTPS IJ/HOLD/Rp1,650/Target: Rp1,700): 4Q23: Net profit down 69% qoq; write-off remains high in 2024. Indosat (ISAT IJ/BUY/Rp9,500/Target: Rp11,300): 4Q23: Net profit jumped 66% yoy from sale and lease-back of data centres. TRADERS’ CORNER Bank BTPN Syariah (BTPS IJ): Technical BUY Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC IJ): Technical BUY
- Chris Hoare
ASEAN Telcos Outlook 2024; Continued market repair in Indonesia, Thai...
After a decent 2023, in 2024 we are likely to see further evidence of market repair in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia driven by consolidation in both Mobile and Broadband. The economic outlook in the region is generally positive too, helped by post-Covid tailwinds, and China decoupling.
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – ISAT Would Be The Beneficiary From Home’s Fixed B...
ISAT on 27 November announced its collaboration with MNC Play by acquiring over 300,000 subscribers. This could give rise to slightly positive sentiment on ISAT as it gives more clarity on its potential inorganic growth in the fixed broadband/fixed mobile convergence business. EXCL has yet to announce the recent progress of its synergy with LINK (top 2 player in fixed broadband market). The impact might be roughly priced in for now as ISAT’s share price jumped 4% on 29 Nov 23. Maintain OVERWEIGH...
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Chris Hoare
Indonesian Telcos Q3 23 review: IndiHome/Telkomsel merger sparking in...
Following several weaker quarters, Q3 marked something of a turnaround for Telekom Indonesia with stronger net adds on both mobile and broadband side. It would appear that the closing of the IndiHome/Telkomsel merger in July has catalysed better performance. With market repair continuing and Enterprise also better, we think the stock should start to perform better and remain Buyers.
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Malaysia Research Team
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Singapore Research Team
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, November 01, 2023
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Top 100 developers’ Oct 23 sales weaker than expected; government housing supply to accelerate. Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$19.52/Target: HK$28.20): 3Q23: In line; margins compressed by lacklustre demand and high coal prices. Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$14.88/Target: HK$22.50): 3Q23: Slight miss; expect a better 4Q23. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/BUY/HK$7.95/Target: HK$9.30): 3Q23: Results below expectations; outlook still cautious but valuatio...
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
ISAT INDOSAT
600585 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
601919 COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS A
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
2359 WUXI APPTEC CO LTD
TWC TIONG WOON CORPORATION HOLDING
- Paula Ruth
Indosat (ISAT IJ) - 3Q23: Stellar Growth In EBITDA (+24% yoy) And Core...
ISAT reported 3Q23 EBITDA of Rp6.1t, up 24% yoy and 0.5% qoq, in line with our and consensus’ expectation. ISAT expects margin to continue improving along with the realisation of synergies between ISAT and Hutchinson Tri after the effective merger since early-22. ISAT is also expanding its services to new areas, including rural areas in the eastern part of Indonesia. We expect EBITDA to grow by 16% yoy in 2023 and 9% yoy in 2024. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp11,100.
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
Indonesia Daily - Wednesday, November 1, 2023
Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ/BUY/Rp1,005/Target: Rp1,420): 3Q23: NPAT rose 79.3% qoq on high handover seasonality; above expectations. Indosat (ISAT IJ/BUY/Rp9,450/Target: Rp11,100): 3Q23: Stellar growth in EBITDA (+24% yoy) and core profit (+98% yoy). TRADERS’ CORNER Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ): Technical BUY Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ): Technical BUY
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – Data Traffic To Grow 18% yoy In 2024; Maintain OV...
We expect data revenue to rise 10%/9% yoy in 2023/24, mainly due to data traffic growth. The upcoming Election Day in Feb 24 may also help increase data traffic by at least 7% vs a normal day. We also believe fixed broadband revenue could accelerate slightly by 10% yoy in 2024 (2023: 9% yoy). For tower companies, fibre-to-the-tower could become an additional growth driver. We expect TOWR's revenue from FTTT and connectivity services to grow 29%/24% yoy in 2023/24 respectively. Maintain OVERWEIGH...
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Paula Ruth
Indosat (ISAT IJ) - Expansion To Outer Java Might Limit Short-term Mar...
We expect ISAT’s ARPU to rise 7% yoy in 2024. ISAT is expanding to Outer Java to partly drive 9% yoy revenue growth in 2024. Strong core earnings growth of 27% yoy is expected in 2024, but higher spending in Outer Java could limit EBITDA margin expansion (2024: 45.6%, 2023: 45.5%). Downgrade ISAT to HOLD as the share price has risen 61.1% in the past one year and even with our valuation method, this still implies a +1SD EV/EBITDA.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
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