Today, we are publishing the automotive section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Auto semi revenues declined, reflecting the ongoing inventory correction. However, nearly all companies have now called the bottom. We expect strong sequential momentum through 2025, which should suppor...
Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) to Overweight A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began on April 22nd, which is when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25 Compass) as the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support. We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below). Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback a...
Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. We will remain cautious and we will continue to favor defensives as long as the S&P 500 is below its 200-day MA (currently 5750) or 5785 level. There have been substantial trading opportunities in both directions, and we expect that to continue; we discussed in our 4/8/25 Compass that a logic...
As US auto tariffs remain in place, investors need to assess whether auto-related government negotiations will be successful, and what automakers can do to mitigate the potential surge in costs. Analyst Julie Boote reviews potential outcomes.
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