EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
UST yields ticked higher this week amid a lack of macro data, while EM credit in general performed well. We expect spreads should remain well supported in the current environment but see little scope for valuations to grind much tighter absent a clearer policy shift from central banks or positive geopolitical news.
HEADLINES: • Hidroelectrica: incorporating lower power prices (downgraded to HOLD) • MONETA Money Bank: publishes 4Q23 results, guides for CZK 9 of 2023 DPS, upgrades 2024-28E EPS guidance NEUTRAL • Akbank: 4Q23 results and 2024E guidance highlights Kazatomprom: 4Q operational update and guidance NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: SocGen may be mulling over potential sale of its Romanian subsidiary NEUTRAL • Kruk: invests EUR 212m in 1Q24E in Italy,...
A volatile week for EM amid renewed sharp moves in the UST market, although spread levels in general held up relatively well. With focus returning to the US banking sector and uncertainty remaining around the path of the Fed, we expect macro volatility to continue to drive returns for EM credit and should see increased dispersion across names.
EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: solid 4Q23; how quickly FX mortgage saga costs can drop is key for the future NEUTRAL • Garanti Bank: 4Q23 results and 2024E guidance – flat 2024E margin, despite headwinds • Romgaz: 4Q23 trading update NEUTRAL • Richter: takes 9.08% stake in Formycon via capital increase NEUTRAL • Short News (AQ)
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • EU macro: October sentiment positive in CEE and Turkey • mBank: 3Q23 results - key to us are the solid capital ratios and high FX mortgage portfolio coverage • Orlen: 3Q23 results review • Garanti Bank: 3Q23 results highlights NEUTRAL • Halyk Savings Bank: notes from the deep-dive session • OMV: 3Q23 results review • OMV Petrom: 3Q23 result good, but in line with expectations • RO utilities: RO state could consider selling shares in Hidroelectrica, Nuclearelectrica, Romgaz NE...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Cyprus: tightening triumph (BUY - transfer of coverage) • Bank Millennium: solid capital ratio progress and manages to book some headline net profit in 3Q23 NEUTRAL • Akbank: 3Q23 highlights - revenue strength POSITIVE • Turkey macro: CBT heading towards ex-ante positive real rate • Shoper: earnings call takeaways - headcount to rise 9% qoq in 4Q23E NEUTRAL • Romania macro: President promulgates draft law on fiscal package NEUTRAL • Colt CZ Group SE: acquires minority sta...
A director at Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S sold 610,000 shares at 53.903TRY and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two...
We anticipate that the relaxation of the regulatory framework and a return to more conventional policies will positively impact the banking sector. TL commercial loan/deposit spreads (front book), which had plummeted to as low as -18% by the end of June, have reached 6.6%, thanks to the removal of a cap on lending rates and lower deposit rates. Taking these favourable developments and strong 2Q23 results into account, we are raising our aggregate FY23 NI estimate for the sector by 10%. We now fo...
EME Equity Market – July 2023 Market performance – gains keep on rolling in all geographies, with special mention of Turkey’s stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 8.6% mom in EUR terms and 9.5% mom in USD in July. Turkey clearly outperformed its peers, gaining 18.6% mom in EUR terms. Most other geographies performed more or less at similar levels, with the Polish WIG20 in the upper part of the range, advancing 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and Czech PX indic...
Summary Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi Turk Anonim Ortaklig - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finance Report, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi Turk Anonim Ortaklig (VakifBank) offers retail, corporate, commercial, small and medium enterprise (SME) banking; investment; and private...
HEADLINES: • Garanti: 2Q23 highlights - in line with change of heart on discretionary provisions • Ford Otosan: 2Q23 financials - better-than-expected results POSITIVE • OMV: 2Q23 results - weak net income in 2Q23 • OMV Petrom: net loss in 2Q23, but lower than expected NEUTRAL • Borouge: 2Q23 results - in line • Alkaloid: 2Q23 - another strong quarter, with broad-based growth POSITIVE • Titan Cement: tailwinds from lower energy prices, construction demand POSITIVE • Mytilineos: CEO comfortabl...
With the key central bank meetings out of the way without any major hiccups, we expect the summer lull to start to set in for EM credit markets. However, with spread levels looking tight, investors will be on the lookout for further signs of intrenched inflation or weakness in the global economy, along with expectations for an uptick in supply from September.
HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: awaiting the special dividend (stays BUY) • OMV Petrom: Executive Board proposes RON 0.045 special dividend • MONETA Money Bank: posts solid 2Q23 results and tweaks guidance up, mostly on lower CIT NEUTRAL • Akbank: 2Q23 - similar trends vs. Yapi Kredi and trading income makes up 50% of 2Q23 revenues • Tofas: strong beat in 2Q23 results, domestic sales guidance raised POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: 2Q23 EBITDA spot on expectations NEUTRAL • Otokar: 2Q23 results - improv...
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