Last week, WOOD held its second annual symposium in Istanbul (hosting the C-level management of 12 BIST-listed bluechips), which was highly appreciated by both investors and corporates. Overall, sentiment was consistent with our recent pre-elections trip report (followed by our report concerning the elections). The transition towards a more orthodox macroeconomic framework appears both credible and convincing, in terms of the measures implemented, in our view. In the paragraphs below, we focus o...
EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • MONETA Money Bank: strong 1Q24 delivery, on better-than- expected revenues POSITIVE • Alior Bank: books small beat on 1Q24 delivery, driven by low credit risk charges; robust 2024E outlook supported POSITIVE • Shoper: 1Q24 adjusted EBITDA 9% above our expectations; FY23 results in line with prelims POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 4% miss vs. our 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA forecast, weak cash flows NEGATIVE • Wizz Air: fiscal 2024 post-close trading update POSITIVE • Aselsan: CEO's comments on exports...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Tofas: fortune favours the bold (stays BUY) • LPP: 4Q23 in line with prelims; FY24E guidance maintained; stellar rollout plans NEUTRAL • Aselsan: strong pre-IAS29 4Q23 results, bullish FY24E guidance POSITIVE • Hungary macro: MNB turns cautious, with a slower pace of rate cuts • Logo Yazilim: weak 4Q23 results, but the details matter NEGATIVE • Eurowag: takeaways from the 2H23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Ten Square G...
HEADLINES: • Türkiye macro: MPC surprises with a 500bp hike • Hungary macro: Hungary ends the cap on bank deposits • Aselsan: new USD 0.6bn contract • Dino: 8-10% EBITDA miss in 4Q23 - qoq sales erosion • Benefit Systems: conference call takeaways - solid 2024E outlook, Türkiye promising, churn-related risks from the Czech Republic should not materialise in Poland • 11 bit studios: Indika release date set for 8 May • CEZ: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call • Jahez: conference call takeaways •...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: quo vadis? New contracts, new products and upcoming transition to inflation accounting POSITIVE • Georgia macro: NBG cuts policy rate by 75bps • CEZ: press reports CEZ has won tender for 55% of GasNet, could weigh on the 2023 dividend payout NEGATIVE • Allegro: 4Q23 results above expectations; guidance for a strong 1Q24E POSITIVE • Verbund: 4Q23 results in line with guidance NEUTRAL • Coca-Cola Icecek: 4Q23 results – in line operationally NEUTRAL • OPAP: 4Q23 results and FY...
In this flash note, we evaluate the recent newsflow on Aselsan’s latest contract wins, its new product launches and the recent management changes. We also offer our preliminary insights on the forthcoming impact of the IAS29 inflation accounting shift on Aselsan (slated to commence with the release of its FY23E financials in the coming weeks). Despite a strong surge (+45 % in TRY and 20% in USD terms) since our rating upgrade (6 September 2023), propelling the stock price close to our 12M price ...
HEADLINES: • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • CEZ: postcard from Prague • Colt CZ Group SE: postcard from Prague • Eurowag: postcard from Prague • Pilulka Lekarny: postcard from Prague • Athens Exchange Group: postcard from Prague • Elbit Systems: postcard from Prague • Siauliu Bankas: postcard from Prague • Budimex: postcard from Prague • CD Projekt: postcard from Prague • Cyber_folks: postcard from Prague • Cyfrowy Polsat: postcard from Prague ...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: 3Q23 results - backlog hits historical peak of USD 11bn, execution on track POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: strong beat in 3Q23 financials POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 3Q23 results - in line NEUTRAL • Siauliu Bankas: 3Q23 results highlights • OMV Petrom: takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Czech Republic macro: GDP disappoints in 3Q • OMV: joint venture to build Europe's largest plastics sorting facility • Jahez: announces lapse of period to fulfil the SPA condition...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: issues compliance policy on controversial weapons POSITIVE • Enea: signs preliminary agreement with State Treasury on Bogdanka sale NEUTRAL • LPP: changes in the management board NEUTRAL • ADNOC Drilling: announces interim dividend • OMV Petrom/Romgaz: proposal introduced in Parliament by right-wing party to triple royalties level NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: update on FTTH rollout in Spain NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: 3Q23E results preview - 15% yoy EBITDA growth expecte...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
HEADLINES: • InPost: not there yet (stays BUY) • AROBS Transilvania Software: 2Q23 results • Lamda Development: 2Q23 - call takeaways (capex, cash inflows, malls IPO, margin of building by BIG) • Pepco Group: business model in question NEGATIVE • Aselsan: AESA radar ready to fly with Baykar drones POSITIVE • CD Projekt: Phantom Liberty down slightly in top-sellers list NEGATIVE • Short News (SNG)
The change in political landscape favouring Turkish Defence Sector, Aselsan’s extensive efforts on R&D and development of military technology and accelerated pace in contract awards (USD3.5bn total contract awards ytd) has resulted in an 8% outperformance in the 12M period. Based on our revised estimates and a target price of TL47 per share (previously TL27.8), we are maintaining our HOLD rating for Aselsan. Aselsan trades at 2023E P/E of 11.4x, representing a 30% discount to its peers. Aselsan ...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: back on a USD growth path (upgraded to BUY) • Huuuge Games: solid cash distribution potential (stays BUY) • InPost: 2Q23 beat on strong volumes; growth maintained in 3Q23 to date; FY23E guidance upgrade POSITIVE • Fourlis: 2Q23 review - decent quarter, supported by recovery at IKEA POSITIVE • AUGA Group: 2Q23 gross profit weaker, but 2H23E seems promising • Polish utilities: politician sees the NABE law being delayed until after the elections NEUTRAL • Romanian banks: wi...
EME Equity Market – April 2023 Market performance – in the black across all geographies, except for Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.9% mom in USD in April. The Polish WIG20 Index saw the biggest gains (+11.5% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+7.8% mom in EUR terms) and the Greek ASE Index (+2.9% mom in EUR terms). More muted performances were witnessed in the Czech PX Index and Romanian BET Index, both adding 1.7% mom in EUR terms for th...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 1Q23 results beat expectations by 12%, solidifying our positive view on the stock POSITIVE • MONETA Money Bank: solid beat vs. 1Q23 forecasts, bodes well for FY guidance POSITIVE • Kruk: posts solid 1Q23 results, implying management is betting even more on Italy and Spain NEUTRAL • LPP: 4Q22 below expectations on weaker sales; decent start to the year, bullish guidance for FY23E POSITIVE • Shoper: 1Q23 results broadly in line with our and the market's expectations NEUTRA...
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
HEADLINES: • AmRest: 4Q22 miss as EBITDA fell yoy in all markets, bar Russia NEGATIVE • Aselsan: strong 4Q22 earnings beat, but no FY23E guidance surprise POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: 4Q22 results miss expectations NEGATIVE • Migros: operating performance remained very weak in 4Q22 NEGATIVE • Duna House: FY22 results above our estimates, driven by strong Italy, DPS proposal implies 26% yield POSITIVE • LiveChat Software: 3Q22-23 - EBITDA +56% yoy, 4% below consensus; cooperation with OpenAI confi...
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