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Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

What happened to the US broadband market?

We have covered a lot of ground on the broadband sector over the last two weeks. I thought it might help to pull together some of the more important threads, in case you missed them during the busy reporting seasons.

 PRESS RELEASE

Comcast Business Boosts Internet Speeds for Customers Nationwide

PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- today increased Internet speeds for customers, nationwide, at no additional cost. Comcast Business announced the introduction of its fastest Internet plans yet – Ultimate Speed for Business – with up to triple the speeds. Additionally, Comcast Business announced the roll-out of next-generation multi-gigabit symmetrical business Internet speeds, powered by Full Duplex technology, in select markets. Ultimate Speed for Ultimate Business Effective immediately, new, and existing Comcast Business customers can take advantage of the following speed plan increases: ...

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

Autumn for Broadband 1Q24

In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Industry net adds were substantially weaker in 1Q24 with all technologies seeing slower growth (except DSL which was flat). Cable was impacted the most.

Wedbush Research
  • Wedbush Research
MTB M&T BANK CORPORATION
SIVB SVB FINANCIAL GROUP
USB U.S. BANCORP
ZION ZIONS BANCORPORATION N.A.
WTFC WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORPORATION
WING WINGSTOP INC.
WBS WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORPORATION
WAL WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORP
VLY VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP
TTWO TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE INC.
TCBI TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES INC.
SBNY SIGNATURE BANK
RF REGIONS FINANCIAL CORPORATION
PZZA PAPA JOHN'S INTERNATIONAL INC.
PPBI PACIFIC PREMIER BANCORP INC.
PB PROSPERITY BANCSHARES INC.(R)
NYCB NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP INC.
KEY KEYCORP
JACK JACK IN THE BOX INC.
HMST HOMESTREET INC.
HBAN HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INCORPORATED
HAFC HANMI FINANCIAL CORPORATION
FRC FIRST REPUBLIC BANK
FITB FIFTH THIRD BANCORP
FHN FIRST HORIZON CORPORATION
FFWM FIRST FOUNDATION
EWBC EAST WEST BANCORP INC.
ETSY ETSY INC.
DIN DINE BRANDS GLOBAL INC.
CVBF CVB FINANCIAL CORP.
CUBI CUSTOMERS BANCORP INC.
CTSH COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS CORPORATION CLASS A
COLB COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM INC.
CHUY CHUY'S HOLDINGS INC.
CFG CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
CATY CATHAY GENERAL BANCORP
CAKE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED
BZH BEAZER HOMES USA INC.
BXP BOSTON PROPERTIES INC.
BKU BANKUNITED INC.
BANC BANC OF CALIFORNIA INCORPORATED
GRBK GREEN BRICK PARTNERS
CFR CULLEN/FROST BANKERS INC.
BOKF BOK FINANCIAL CORPORATION
CMA COMERICA INCORPORATED
EA ELECTRONIC ARTS INC.
SLM SLM CORP
TSC TRISTATE CAPITAL HOLDINGS INC
ZNGA ZYNGA INC. CLASS A
HOPE HOPE BANCORP INC.
CVNA CARVANA CO. CLASS A
FCNCA FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC. CLASS A
ZG ZILLOW GROUP INC. CLASS A
TENB TENABLE HOLDINGS
AX AXOS FINANCIAL INC.
UBER UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC.
LC LENDINGCLUB CORP
SI SILVERGATE CAPITAL
U UNITY SOFTWARE
DASH DOORDASH
SOFI SOFI TECHNOLOGIES INC
APP APPLOVIN CORP
NAPA DUCKHORN PORTFOLIO INC (THE)
BROS DUTCH BROS INC
CAVA CAVA GROUP INC
 PRESS RELEASE

Comcast Announces New Xfinity Military Discount Program and $1 Million...

PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Today, Comcast Corporation built on its long-standing commitment to veterans, service members, and their families with the introduction of several new initiatives. Timed with National Military Appreciation Month, the company unveiled “The Aviators,” an epic advertising campaign directed by Oscar winner Kathryn Bigelow, launched a new Xfinity Military discount program, and committed to invest more than $1 million in nonprofits that serve the military community in 2024. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: For National Military Appr...

Blair Levin
  • Blair Levin

NSR Policy: The Interconnections of ACP, Spectrum, Title II, and the S...

In this weekend update, we reconsider our initial takes on several events last week and how they could be affected by events this week. Specifically, we look at the interplay of the FCC’s Title II Order, the Second Circuit opinion upholding New York State’s mandate for ISPs to offer low-income households a low-cost broadband offering, Senator Cantwell’s draft spectrum bill, and how all are affected by the end of ACP funding in the next few weeks.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

Comcast Model Update

What’s new: In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. Please see separate notes reviewing results and thoughts following the earnings call. We lowered broadband adds, revenue and EBITDA. No change to thesis, though we expect Broadband stocks to be challenged for next few quarters. Price target is $51 (+34%).

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

CMCSA: quick thoughts following the call

What's new: in this note we cover our thoughts on Broadband market growth, the strength in Broadband market pricing, the impact of ACP, our expectations for Comcast’s net adds and ARPU in 2Q24 and the second half of the year, the impact of the “Now” products, the outlook for Connectivity EBITDA, and our expectations for leverage and repurchases. We are still working through numbers for Content & Experiences, and we will cover these in our Model Update note at the end of the day.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

CMCSA 1Q24 Quick Take - Results mostly in-line

What’s new: Revenue and EBITDA were roughly in-line, while FCF beat handily on lower capex, cash taxes, and interest. Leverage inched down. Repurchases were higher than our estimate, but lower than consensus. Connectivity financials were fine, but subscriber metrics a little worse than expected. Content financials were similarly fine, with better Media OCF offsetting softer Theme Parks OCF. We suspect the FCF beat is largely due to timing and full year estimates are unlikely to move much. Contex...

 PRESS RELEASE

 Comcast Lights Up WiFi Boost Delivering Gig Speeds to Xfinity Mobile ...

PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- and devices can now connect to millions of new “Xfinity Mobile” hotspots and receive Internet speeds over WiFi up to 1 Gigabit per second (Gbps). By delivering a faster connection over Xfinity’s WiFi network, Comcast is helping ensure customers can stream, game, chat, download and surf wherever they are. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: Comcast delivers gig speeds to Xfinity Mobile and Comcast Business Mobile customers (Graphic: Business Wire) Today 90 percent of the mobile data traffic on Xfinity Mobile devices travels over...

 PRESS RELEASE

Comcast Business Expands Cybersecurity Portfolio with Managed Detectio...

PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- today announced it has expanded its cybersecurity portfolio with the launch of its Comcast Business Managed Detection and Response (MDR) solution. The solution combines an advanced security analytics platform and Security Operations Center (SOC) to help medium and large enterprise customers detect, analyze, and mitigate cyber threats in an ever-evolving and challenging threat landscape. Managed Detection and Response is a cybersecurity service that combines technology and human expertise to perform cyber threat hunting, monitoring, and response. One of the pr...

 PRESS RELEASE

Comcast Launches NOW – a New Brand and Product Portfolio that Redefine...

PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Today Comcast introduced NOW, a new brand of quality, low-cost Internet, mobile and streaming TV products that consumers can purchase month-to-month, whenever they want. NOW Internet is a prepaid service that provides more reliability than fixed wireless options for a better price. NOW Mobile is a new prepaid service that includes unlimited 5G data combined with access to more than 23 million WiFi hotspots, unlike any other provider in the prepaid category. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: Comcast introduces NOW, a new brand o...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

The Pullback Finally Begins; Testing 2-Month Supports We have discussed for months that we will need to see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious. While this has not happened yet (only two consecutive days so far, yesterday and Friday), it does appear to be going in that direction as the U.S. dollar (DXY) climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking abo...

 PRESS RELEASE

News is Out, Word In Black, and Comcast NBCUniversal Welcomes 16 Journ...

PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Today, and , together announced the 16 fellows selected for The Digital Equity Local Voices Lab, a new initiative powered by Comcast NBCUniversal to place journalists at 16 Black and LGBTQ+ serving news publications across the country. During the year-long fellowship, the group will receive the training and resources needed to tell stories within marginalized communities through media and technology and celebrate the work being done by Black and LGBTQ+ leaders in their communities. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: News is Out...

Wedbush Research
  • Wedbush Research
TPX TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL INC
W WAYFAIR INC.
2454 MEDIATEK INC.
MTB M&T BANK CORPORATION
STZ CONSTELLATION BRANDS INC. CLASS A
PHM PULTEGROUP INC.
INFY INFOSYS LIMITED
DPZ DOMINO'S PIZZA INC.
ACN ACCENTURE PLC CLASS A
XNCR XENCOR INC.
W9N WNS (HOLDINGS) LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
WDC WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION
TXRH TEXAS ROADHOUSE INC.
TSLA TESLA INC
TPH TRI POINTE HOMES INC.
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
QCOM QUALCOMM INC
PSTG PURE STORAGE INC. CLASS A
PEGA PEGASYSTEMS INC.
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
NTAP NETAPP INC.
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
MTH MERITAGE HOMES CORPORATION
MGPI MGP INGREDIENTS INC.
LGIH LGI HOMES INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
IMAX IMAX CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
GERN GERON CORP.
35G GENPACT LIMITED
FTNT FORTINET INC.
FHN FIRST HORIZON CORPORATION
EXLS EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS INC.
ETSY ETSY INC.
EPAM EPAM SYSTEMS INC.
DECK DECKERS OUTDOOR CORPORATION
CYBR CYBERARK SOFTWARE LTD.
CTSH COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS CORPORATION CLASS A
CMRX CHIMERIX INC
CHKP CHECK POINT SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIES LTD.
CCS CENTURY COMMUNITIES INC.
CAKE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED
BZH BEAZER HOMES USA INC.
AXTI AXT INC.
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
WD WALKER & DUNLOP INC.
WIPRO WIPRO LIMITED
DHI D.R. HORTON INC.
BJRI BJ'S RESTAURANTS INC.
GRBK GREEN BRICK PARTNERS
2330 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
2303 UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP.
BLDR BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE INC.
DRI DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC.
GLOB GLOBANT SA
TMHC TAYLOR MORRISON HOME CORPORATION
MHO M/I HOMES INC.
FCNCA FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC. CLASS A
OKTA OKTA INC. CLASS A
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
IBM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
RCUS ARCUS BIOSCIENCES
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
ZS ZSCALER INC.
TENB TENABLE HOLDINGS
LEGH LEGACY HOUSING CORP
CRWD CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
CHWY CHEWY INC. CLASS A
SWTX SPRINGWORKS THERAPEUTICS
SMCI SUPER MICRO COMPUTER
ORIC INC.
COGT ORIC PHARMACEUTICALS
UFPI COGENT BIOSCIENCES INC
LSEA UFP INDUSTRIES INC.
DFH LANDSEA HOMES CORP (A)
IMNM DREAM FINDERS HOMES
FHTX IMMUNOME
TNGX FOGHORN THERAPEUTICS
MRVL TANGO THERAPEUTICS
STX INC
IKNA MARVELL TECHNOLOGY INC
TSVT SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PLC
HOWL IKENA ONCOLOGY INC
GFS 2SEVENTY BIO INC
CMPX WEREWOLF THERAPEUTICS INC
S GLOBALFOUNDRIES INC
FUSN COMPASS THERAPEUTICS
BROS SENTINELONE INC
SDHC FUSION PHARMACEUTICALS INC
DUTCH BROS INC
SMITH DOUGLAS HOMES CORP
Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

Comcast Model Update

In this note, we adjust estimates to reflect comments made at conferences and our evolving view of the broadband market. We think broadband market growth considerably slowed in 1Q24. All broadband providers were likely impacted. In addition, Comcast has adjusted its approach to the broadband market to protect ARPU in a period of slower subscriber growth. No change to thesis. Price target is $50 (+22%).

 PRESS RELEASE

Fortune Media and Great Place to Work® Name Comcast NBCUniversal One o...

PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- For the second year in a row, Great Place To Work® and Fortune Media have recognized Comcast NBCUniversal as one of the top 10 of , ranking the company No. 10 on this year’s list. It’s an honor to be recognized by Fortune and Great Place to Work alongside many other notable companies for the seventh consecutive year. To determine the 100 Best Companies to Work For, analyzed the anonymous survey responses of more than half a million employees from U.S. companies with at least 1,000 workers. Companies also submitted essays describing their efforts to offer gen...

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

Broadband market growth slower in 1Q24

Broadband industry growth slowed in 4Q23. We wondered, exiting the quarter, whether growth would level off or slow further in 1Q24. Based on the data we have collected so far, it appears that growth has slowed further, and possibly quite materially. We suspect slower growth will impact all operators, although for fiber, it should be partly offset by footprint expansion.

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