reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Russell 2000 Breaking Out to All-Time Highs We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading within a well-defined 4-month uptrend that began in late-May. We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. We would need to see a break below 6450-6480 in order to have confidence that a consolidation period has finall...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059. Shorter-term, the SPX continues to make higher lows as high growth areas have re-emerged as leadership as the Fed starts to ease; we would need to see a break below 6450 in order to have confidence that a consolidation period has finally begun. Short-term supports on SPX include 6480-...
WDC WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION
VIAV VIAVI SOLUTIONS INC
PSTG PURE STORAGE INC. CLASS A
NTAP NETAPP INC.
LPTH LIGHTPATH TECHNOLOGIES INC. CL A
HMC HARMONIC
GLW CORNING INC
CIEN CIENA CORPORATION
LCM COSTAMARE INC.
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
AAOI APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS INC.
OCC OPTICAL CABLE
DAC DANAOS
STX SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PLC
BBAI BIGBEAR AI HLDGS INC
ARKK ARK INNOVATION ETF
ALCC ALTC ACQUISITION CORP
PONY PONY AI INC
SNDK SANDISK CORP
URA GLOBAL X URANIUM ETF
HYDR GLOBAL X FUNDS - GLOBAL X HYDROGEN ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 5700-5785. Short-term support on the SPX is at ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking Out to All-Time Highs We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place as long as the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 5700-5785. Short-term support on SP...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Local Bottom With Potential to be a Major Bottom Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. All that changed as of our 3/31/25 ETF Pathfinder, when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments. It all led us to believe a break below 5500 and the potential for a prolonged downturn was increasingly likely. A historic selloff ensued. We did get positive trade news and some accommodative comment...
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
XLY AUXLY CANNABIS GROUP INC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Tariff Tantrum Underway; Market Dynamics Still Risk-On As discussed throughout the first half of January, we continue to believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared. We anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved relatively quickly, and therefore we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity. Bottom line: market dynamics remain risk-on, and our outlook remains bullish as long as t...
EIS EISEN- UND HUETTENWERKE AG
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
FDN FIRST TRUST DOW JONES INTERNET INDEX FUND
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
EPOL ISHARES MSCI POLAND CAPPED ETF
HEDJ WSDMTR EURP HDGD
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
A14Y8J ARK WEB X.0 ETF NO PAR VALUE PER SHARE
ISHARES MSCI UAE CAPPED ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Blue Sky Territory for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJI Since late-February, we have discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the S&P 500, and that as long as the S&P 500 is above 4983 the bulls remain in control. This area was right where this pullback halted, which is when we discussed our belief that downside was limited, followed by discussing that it was "quite possible" that the lows were in for this pullback (4/29/24 ETF Pathfinder titled "Pullback Complete?"). With the S&P 5...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Downgrading Technology To Underweight Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in, and the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends. Sector Relative Strength Rankings. We are downgrading Technology to underweight; RS is trading within multi-month downtrends and is breaking below major support on the cap- and equal-weighted Sectors (XLK, RYT) -- reduce ex...
GBX GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC.
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC.
PEG PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC
NI NISOURCE INC
MOS MOSAIC COMPANY
FE FIRSTENERGY CORP.
ED CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC.
DY DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC.
D DOMINION ENERGY INC
CF CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC.
AVD AMERICAN VANGUARD
FLR FLUOR CORPORATION
TRN TERNA S.P.A.
GATX GATX CORPORATION
WAB WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION
GNE GENIE ENERGY LTD. CL B
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
ICL ICL GROUP LTD.
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
TNX TANZANIAN GOLD
IPI INTREPID POTASH
SOM SOMEC
IWC ISHARES MICRO-CAP ETF
UAN ARCADIAN PARTNERS LP
OOO BETASHARES CRUDE OIL INDEX ETF - CURRENCY HEDGED SYNTHETIC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Technology, Downgrading Communications The Russell 2000 (IWM) displays a false breakout and has now fallen back into the horizontal trading range that has plagued it for most of 2021. This false breakout combined with deteriorating breadth has us on watch for a potential breakdown below $208 on IWM and $135 on IWC. As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. On the other hand, we would turn bearish on breakdowns. Upgrading Technology, Downgrad...
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLRE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLC SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
RYH THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
XLB. INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
XLY ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
AUXLY CANNABIS GROUP INC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an outright bullish stance. S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish as it breaks to all-time highs. As long as 4164-4168 support holds, our target of 4320 remains in play. Should 4164 fail to hold, our next key support level would be in the 4056-4100 range; we are constructive as long as 4056 holds. Small- & Mi...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Weight Of The Evidence Remains Positive Despite a more mixed and highly rotational market, the weight of the evidence remains positive, and our outlook remains constructive for the weeks and months ahead. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow, Mid-Caps, Russell 2000. Large-cap (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow) and mid-cap indexes (S&P 600) remain bullish, closing out the past week at new all-time highs. Small-caps are more mixed, as the Russell 2000 (IWM) continues a healthy consolidation of the substantial g...
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
EWCO INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT COMMUNICATION SERVICES ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Remain Overweight Value, Small-Caps; Downgrading Health Care To Underweight Thus far, the market's recent consolidation phase has proven to be a buying opportunity as noted in our 3/1/21 ETF Pathfinder, supported by the reality that market dynamics remained largely positive throughout the pullback. Leadership areas including value (VTV, VBR) and small-caps (IJR) are already breaking to new price highs -- remain overweight and add exposure on pullbacks. · S&P 500. Our 3750-3694 support ...
KIE KIER GROUP PLC
ITA ISHARES U.S. AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IJR ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP ETF
VTV VANGUARD VALUE ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
COPX GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF
XLYS SOURCE CONS DISC S&P US SECTOR UCITS ETF
YOLO ADVISORSHARES PURE CANNABIS ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Market Dynamics Improving; Downgrading Utilities Market dynamics and price action across the major indexes and all Sectors has been positive since early November -- and they have only improved recently. As a result, we remain bullish and recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. Below we highlight recent improvements. · Market Dynamics Improving: Commodities, 10-Year Treasury Yield. Broad commodities (DJP) are breaking above the 12.5-year downtrend, likely starting a new secular bull mar...
IBUY AMPLIFY ONLN ETF
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
XSW SPDR S&P SOFTWARE AND SERVICES FUND
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
XSD SPDR S&P SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Utilities; Downgrading Communication Services We remain bullish following breakouts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 from their bullish falling wedge patterns. The Russell 2000 (IWM) has also broken above key $160 resistance. Additionally, market dynamics remain largely positive and are conducive to an ongoing bull market. Buy dips. · Key Levels. Short-term support levels to watch include $342.50 & $331 on the S&P 500 (SPY) and $283 & $273 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ); as long as the...
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
S&P 500 Consolidating, Still In “Wait-And-See†Phase The S&P 500 is moving in a sideways range while the market digests the implications of states' re-opening. Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. A break below support would confirm this as a distribution phase, while a break above resistance would confirm this period as being a digestion phase. · Key Levels...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Still Searching For A Bottom In our last ETF Pathfinder (3/9/20) we noted key support levels on the Nasdaq Composite (8,264), S&P 500 (2,830-2,855), and Dow Jones (24,681) which represented our new lines in the sand. We said we would be constructive as long as these levels held, but that we would reduce exposure on breakdowns as that would likely usher-in additional downside. Breakdowns and additional downside is what we got, and these indexes are now 17-22% lower. That leaves equities still se...
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
RHS INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER STAPLES ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
XLYS SOURCE CONS DISC S&P US SECTOR UCITS ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Constructive Pullback Coronavirus concerns are hitting stocks due to prospects of lower economic growth. A question we ask ourselves is whether the worst of the declines are behind us and that the pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity, or is this the beginning of a much larger correction? We lean towards the former, and believe this to be a healthy and constructive pullback of the 5-7% variety in the S&P 500 (peak-to-trough is currently -3.7%). We explain our thought process below. •...
HYG ISHARES IBOXX $ HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND ETF
EWW ISHARES MSCI MEXICO CAPPED ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EIRL ISHARES MSCI IRELAND CAPPED ET
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
IGV ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
DBO INVESCO DB OIL FUND
ITB ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
CPER UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
JNK SPDR BARCLAYS HIGH YIELD BOND ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
RSXJ MARKET VECTORS RUSSIA SMALL-CAP ETF
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
ACWI ISHARES MSCI ACWI ETF
EWZS. ISHARES MSCI BZL
IWR ISHARES RUSSELL MID-CAP ETF
A1W8E4 ISHARES MSCI DENMARK CAPPED INVESTABLE MKT INDX FD
A118W4 ISHARES MSCI EUROPE MINIMUM VOLATILITY ETF
RSX.. VANECK VECTORS RUSSIA ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Add Exposure to Small-Caps; Upgrading Health Care Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps (IWM) is the latest positive development underpinning our belief that we are in the early stages of a broad-based market advance. • Small-Caps. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is decisively breaking topside $160 resistance and is making the long-awaited bullish RS reversal -- add exposure. Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps helped ignite the broad market rally that began in early 2016, and w...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EIRL ISHARES MSCI IRELAND CAPPED ET
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
SLX. MARKET VECTORS STEEL INDEX FUND
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
XME SPDR S&P METALS & MINING ETF
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
IGV ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
IEO ISHARES U.S. OIL & GAS EXPLORA
XPH SPDR S&P PHARMACEUTICALS ETF
RHS INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER STAPLES ETF
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
TAN INVESCO SOLAR ETF
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
DXGE WISDOMTREE GERMANY HEDGED EQUITY FUND
PSCH INVESCO S&P SMALLCAP HEALTH CARE ETF
EWUS ISHARES MSCI UNITED KINGDOM SMALL CAP INDEX FUND
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERNET FUND
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.