Kongsberg Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK1250.00) - Expectations are set too hi...

We have downgraded Kongsberg Gruppen to SELL (HOLD) and lowered our target price to NOK1,250 (1,450). We believe the 2025e P/E of 46x overstates its growth capabilities 1) on an absolute basis, in a scenario where all of NATO reaches defence spending of 3.3% of GDP; and 2) compared to other defence companies as, in our view, the market appears to miss that only 20% of its 2024 sales were from European defence spending.

Positive trend shift

Q1: Small Adj. EBITDA beat and stronger orders

Share up on Q1 beat

Scorpio Tankers Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, reflecting the Q1 report, Q2 bookings, new charter announcements and other minor model adjustments. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have lowered our target price from USD72 to USD71. Discounted entry to attractive tanker markets. We have raised our 2025e EBITDA by 2% and 2026–2027e by 1%. We continue to highlight the attractive upside potential in tankers on potential catalysts such as the US’s ‘ma...

No fun in DMC short-term

Elkem (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Mixed Q1 results

Elkem had a mixed Q1, with EBITDA of NOK898m 3% above consensus but 9% below our estimate, while EPS of NOK-0.3 missed both our forecast and consensus. However, we remain optimistic about Elkem’s outlook, contingent on a successful divestment of its Silicones assets, and have made minor adjustments to our 2026–2027e EPS. We reiterate our BUY and NOK30 target price.

Q1 EBITDA +2%, but Q2 will be weak

Scorpio Tankers (Buy, TP: USD72.00) - Discount gone too far

We believe market concerns regarding a potential reversal of initially beneficial disruptions are overdone as much of the benefit for compliant tankers has already eroded. Hence, at an implied value for a 5-year MR at ~USD21m (versus the 15-year low of USD22m), we see a reinforced attractive entry point to the tankers space, with supportive supply/demand fundamentals and risk skewed to the upside. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to USD72 (82).

Hafnia (Buy, TP: NOK77.00) - Sentiment reinforces attractive entry po...

In our view, tanker markets remain attractive, with healthy supply/demand fundamentals and potential positive catalysts in increasing OPEC+ volumes and a successful phasing out of the shadow fleet. Coupled with overdone market concerns, leaving the implied value of a 5-year-old MR in Hafnia at ~USD30m (broker quotes were last at this level in Q1 2022, when rates averaged ~USD10k/day), we believe risk is skewed to the upside. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to NOK77 (85), ...

Frontline (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Front-row ticket to tanker potential

We believe the tanker fundamentals continue to look attractive, in particular for the VLCCs, with a highly manageable ~4% deliveries expected for 2025–2026. Further, we see potential positive catalysts in sanctions further restricting volumes transported on the dark fleet (possibly triggering scrapping postponed by shadow fleet deployment) and signs of a more aggressive volume strategy from OPEC+. Hence, we reiterate our BUY but have reduced out target price to NOK280 (295).

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Expecting solid start to the year

We expect a solid Q1 report, with likely c11% organic growth as well as good margin progress supporting the 2025 guidance. Based on its footprint, we see minimal effect in case of tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with the biggest risk coming from potential reciprocal ones from Europe. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK480.00) - Earnings growth is on

Although Q1 earnings for the smelters and mines were slightly below our forecasts, we believe this was offset by constructive outlook comments for the rest of 2025 and explicit guidance that metal grades for the Kevitsa and Aitik mines should be picking up in 2026. We have cut our 2026–2027e EBITDA by 5%–4%, mainly due to slightly changed assumptions for FX and weaker prices and terms. We believe Boliden continues to offer impressive earnings growth and attractive multiples beyond the current ye...

CMB.TECH (No_rec, TP: USD) - Recommendation and target price withdrawn

CMB.TECH and Golden Ocean have signed a term sheet for a contemplated stock-for-stock merger at an exchange ratio of 0.95 CMB.TECH shares for each outstanding Golden Ocean share. Completion is scheduled for Q3, and the companies are scheduled to host CMDs on 24 and 29 April to provide further information. As DNB Markets is acting as financial advisor to Golden Ocean, we have withdrawn our recommendation and target price.

Morning Notes : AKZA NA, BESI NA, CRBN NA, CMBT BB, FLOW NA, RAND NA, ...

: AKZA NA, BESI NA, CRBN NA, CMBT BB, FLOW NA, RAND NA, VPK NA, TKWY NA

CMB.Tech Merger proposal with Golden Ocean

CMB.Tech and Golden Ocean announced they have signed a term sheet for a contemplated stock-for-stock merger, with CMB.Tech as the surviving entity, based on an exchange ratio of 0.95 shares of CMB.Tech for each share of Golden Ocean, subject to customary adjustments. The merger will create one of the largest diversified listed maritime groups in the world with a combined fleet of more than 250 vessels. Early March CMB.Tech acquired an initial stake of 40.8% in Golden Ocean which it increased to ...

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...