reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
3Q24 Broadband Trends: FWA capacity limits; FWA demand limits
In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we update our FWA capacity forecast. We also touch on early signs that demand for FWA may be limited, which could prevent mobile operators from reaching capacity limits (or force them to work harder to get there). This could have a big impact on the pace of Cable subscriber growth. Finally, we reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.
Moody's Ratings assigns Ba1 credit ratings to Charter's new senior sec...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) assigned a Ba1 credit rating to a new backed senior secured revolving credit facility and Term Loan A-7 both due 2030, and Term Loan B-5 due 2031, to be issued at Charter Communications, Inc.'s (Charter or the Company) wholly owned subsidiary Charter Communications Operatin...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Charter / Liberty Broadband: quick follow up on questions
We published a brief note on the transaction this morning. We have been asked four questions since then: 1) why didn’t Charter want GCI; 2) why the delayed close; 3) what does this mean for Charter’s share repurchases; 4) how much of a discount to NAV did Liberty Broadband accept? We cover all four in this brief follow-up.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR Quick Hit: Charter Buying Liberty Broadband
This morning, Charter announced that they are buying Liberty Broadband (at last)! Charter is not acquiring GCI, making this a very straightforward transaction in which Charter is effectively repurchasing their own shares at a discount. Our quick thoughts in this very brief note.
Eli Lilly & Co: 1 director
Three Directors at Eli Lilly & Co bought/sold 947 shares at between 0.000USD and 803.380USD. The significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over...
Kraft Heinz Co: 1 director
A director at Kraft Heinz Co sold 45,000 shares at 33.453USD and the significance rating of the trade was 74/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 3Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved quite significantly. We continue to expect further recovery next year, once the ACP headwind has passed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Charter Post-3Q24 Model Update
This note focuses on model changes. Please see separate notes reviewing results and on thoughts following the earnings call. We lowered broadband losses slightly. We also lowered capex and increased FCF estimate for the year. We expect consensus to increase their EBITDA and FCF estimate for the year. Price target is $488 (+33%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR: quick thoughts following the 3Q24 call
In this note we cover updated thought on ACP; updated thoughts on broadband market growth (it is improving!); broadband adds for 4Q24; EBITDA growth in 4Q24 and 2025; lowered BEAD expectations; lowered capex expectations; and comments management made on the competitiveness of HFC with fiber.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR 3Q24 Quick Take: Broadband adds, EBITDA, and FCF beat
Charter reported a strong set of results, building on trends we saw from Comcast yesterday. Cable is clearly doing better competitively in a tough market. This may be partly driven by FWA starting to slow in the consumer market. In Charter’s case it is also likely driven by an important shift in strategy.
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Obesity Thematic - A Deep-Dive into Amylin
In the coming days at Obesity Week, we will see multiple datasets from amylin assets that could help to further support our belief that amylin combinations could become a material MOA in the Obesity market. Ahead of the Cagrisema P3 readout, we dig deep into the potential for amylin and show: 1) It has a superior tolerability profile, 2) Could preserve lean muscle mass and 3) Could be neuroprotective. We analyse the majority of the clinical data available on these drugs & show that the full prom...
- Blair Levin
What if Elon Can Deliver a Gig? Where it Matters and Where it Doesn’t
As part of our election impact series, we recently published an analysis of how Elon Musk might influence telecommunications policy under a potential Trump Administration to benefit his Starlink service. While the note prompted significant feedback, nothing in the reaction causes us to reconsider what we wrote. Still, the reaction prompted us to do a second note laying out several paths a Trump Administration could take that would benefit Starlink related to the BEAD program and would work to d...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
WOR WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES INC.
VC VISTEON CORPORATION
TMST TIMKENSTEEL CORP
TM.N TOYOTA MOTOR ADS
THRM GENTHERM INCORPORATED
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
SEDG SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES INC.
NOVA NOVO NORDISK A/S ADS
MKSI MKS INSTRUMENTS INC.
DLY LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES NV
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
LOPE GRAND CANYON EDUCATION INC.
IDXX IDEXX LABORATORIES INC.
ECHA ECOPETROL S.A. ADS
COTY COTY INC. CLASS A
BP BP PLC ADS
ALV ALLIANZ SE
MUR MURPHY OIL CORPORATION
DOO BRP INC.
IIIN INSTEEL INDUSTRIES INC.
ACLS AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES INC.
ENPH ENPHASE ENERGY INC.
ENTG ENTEGRIS INC.
ICHR ICHOR HOLDINGS LTD.
ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.
DK DELEK US HOLDINGS INC
TALO TALOS ENERGY INC.
GNMSY GENMAB A/S
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
VAL VALARIS LTD
APP APPLOVIN CORP
CIVI CIVITAS RESOURCES INC
TEL TE CONNECTIVITY LTD.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Musk and BEAD: Further Thoughts
As part of our election impact series, we recently published an analysis of how Elon Musk might influence telecommunications policy under a potential Trump Administration to benefit his Starlink service. Few notes we have written have stirred the level of surprise and consideration that note produced. Nothing in the reaction causes us to reconsider what we wrote but we repeatedly heard one question that we believe deserves further elaboration. That question is how could Musk, at this late date, ...
- Jonathan Chaplin
US Broadband: Impact of Storms Helene and Milton
In this short note, we have tried to estimate the impact of “Helene” and “Milton” on the broadband subscribers for the major Cable companies and ILECs. The impacts from storms are one-time in nature and do not impact the long-term broadband thesis. Companies tend to disclose the impact, allowing investors to normalize results. Nevertheless, some of our clients have asked us to estimate the impact, so we did.
- Jonathan Chaplin
TMUS seems lukewarm on Cable acquisition
When asked about his interest in cable at the DT Capital Markets Day, Sievert seemed to suggest that Cable may face a “capital surprise”. This will no doubt dampen anticipation for a TMUS / CHTR deal. We are not so sure this is the right conclusion. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR Quick Hit: Charter Buybacks Muted in October
We determined after last month’s filings that Charter was not repurchasing stock in the open market, suggesting they may be involved in a strategic process. As it turns out, they were in discussions to acquire Liberty Broadband (LBRD) with or without GCI (our note on the proposed transaction here). We lowered our expectations for buybacks following the announcement of the deal talks. Advance/Newhouse filed its latest Charter ownership disclosure last night. The buyback amount was almost negligib...
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