reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 2Q25 – Hyperscale & Cloud: 2026 capex expectations up 19%, $3-4t...
Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Enterprise IT and Foundry. Hyperscale capex grew 70% YoY. Most raised 2025 guides, and confirmed sustained spending in 2026, lifting expectations....
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
5930 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD
JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
660 SK HYNIX INC
Ciena Corp: 1 director
A director at Ciena Corp sold 6,800 shares at 92.935USD and the significance rating of the trade was 62/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showi...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Is AI meant to absorb legacy or drive redesigns? Conversation with the...
Earlier this summer we had a fantastic conversation with Pankaj Patel, CEO of Nile. Nile provides a fully automated, subscription-based network-as-a-service platform that delivers secure, scalable connectivity without the complexity of legacy infrastructure. Follow the below link for our top thoughts on the back of this conversation.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Great Replatforming, Part II – The General Theory. Could Jensen ju...
In a very timely manner, as Jensen just touted a $3-4tn Tech. Infra. market for 2030, we publish the second part of our “Great Replatforming” series, in which we look at how much AI investments the global economy can absorb over time. In the first part of the series, we showed how increasing capex should be analyzed as enablers of revenue growth and productivity improvements, and applied the framework to hyperscalers, showing how pushing capex intensity to new highs is easily financed by contin...
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
5930 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD
JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
660 SK HYNIX INC
Cisco Systems Inc: 1 director
A director at Cisco Systems Inc sold 7,511 shares at 66.838USD and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
TSLA TESLA INC
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
COHR COHERENT INC.
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
2330 TSMC
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
3661 ALCHIP TECHNOLOGIES INC.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
CSCO ASML HOLDING N.V.
ASML CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
40978Z ASML HOLDING NV
2357 TT HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO
ASUSTEK COMPUTER
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy Volatility finally picked up last Friday, and the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both gapped lower to close below their 20-day MAs for the first time in over three months. With that said, all of the major indexes (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IWM) rallied yesterday to fill their gaps from Friday and SPX and QQQ have reclaimed above their 20-day MAs; this is a bullish signal that suggests any further pullback is likely to be relatively shallow, and should ...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
What makes a neo-cloud so special? Conversation with the CEO of togeth...
We hosted the second webcast of our AI transforming Industries series a few weeks ago. We had a fantastic conversation with Vipul Ved Prakash, CEO of together.ai, a GPU “Neo-Cloud” with tens of thousands of Nvidia GPUs deployed, powering open-source models and high-performance AI workloads at scale. Please see the link below our top thoughts on the back of this conversation, along with a full transcript.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Replatforming Analysts and Disintermediating SaaS? Top takes from our ...
We hosted the third webcast of our AI transforming Industries series last week. We had a fantastic conversation with Ketan Karkhanis, CEO of ThoughtSpot on how AI is disrupting business analytics. Please see the link below our top thoughts on the back of this conversation, along with a full transcript.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Great Replatforming, part I – the Special Theory
Capex ROI is the trending question these days, but what does it actually mean? In a “replatforming”, capex are enablers of revenue growth and productivity enhancements, as long as they are the foundation for a good “right to make money” (a defensible competitive advantage) and meet good demand. Our “Special Replatforming Theory” looks at how it has been at play for a decade already at hyperscalers, and how we expect the next 10 years to play out, with AI bringing an even more capital-intensive...
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
5930 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD
JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
660 SK HYNIX INC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 1Q25
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 237 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
TSLA TESLA INC
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY MOBILEYE NV
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
ERIC-B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
0084207D UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC
ME 23ANDME HLDG CO
GRAB GRAB HLDGS LTD
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 1Q25 – Enterprise IT: AI drives Cloud growth, SaaS not reacceler...
Today, we are publishing the Enterprise IT section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Legacy IT spending is moderating after a strong 2H24, but public-cloud growth remains steady as AI demand offsets a slowdown in traditional workloads. SaaS revenue growth remains in the low-teens with...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Growth in Public Cloud: Where from? What’s next?
Growth in Public Cloud reaccelerated, in line with our expectations, and, if anything, even stronger than we thought, and shifting fast, with AI representing an increasing share of public cloud growth, and with the fast-growing crowd of native AI start-ups becoming a meaningful segment. We gathered all the initial datapoints at hand and looked at all angles we could, to provide a first perspective of how public cloud is growing today and where it is headed next.
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
5930 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD
JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
660 SK HYNIX INC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 1Q25 – Hyperscale & Cloud: Inference inflecting, more hints on 2...
Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Telecom Infrastructure, Memory, Enterprise IT, and PCs. Hyperscale revenues grew 11% YoY, with cloud services stabilizing in the mid-20%, and acce...
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
5930 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD
JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
660 SK HYNIX INC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
OSIS OSI SYSTEMS INC.
HURN HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC.
CIEN CIENA CORPORATION
CAR AVIS BUDGET GROUP INC.
ATI ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED
MRAM EVERSPIN TECHNOLOGIES
OVBC OHIO VALLEY BANC CORP
GTXMQ GARRETT MOTION INC.
BSIG BRIGHTSPHERE INVESTMENT GROUP INC.
CSTM CONSTELLIUM SE CLASS A
HWM HOWMET AEROSPACE INC.
LRN STRIDE INC
HIMS HIMS AND HERS HEALTH INC (A)
2VZ LEONARDO DRS INC.
ALAB ASTERA LABS INC
AUID AUTHID INC
NUTX NUTEX HEALTH INC
MBX MBX BIOSCIENCES INC.
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC
ALMU AELUMA INC
JNVR JANOVER INC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Tariffs – How would a recession affect our coverage?
The tariffs announced by the Trump administration in the last two weeks have resulted in major swings in the stock market and broader concerns regarding the global economy. We developed a framework to understand the situation and interpret its daily evolution last week and follow up today with an initial perspective on potential macro implications.
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY MOBILEYE NV
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
IFX INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
ERIC.B ERICSSON
ERIC-B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
0084207D UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC
WOLF WOLFSPEED INC
GRAB GRAB HLDGS LTD
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Getting over Tariffs – Step back. Rethink. Move on.
Swings observed in the last 10 days has been second to none. The Great Financial Crisis and Covid didn’t get us in a worst spot. Make no mistake: The markets are panicking today even more than when the world came to a COVID standstill, with the individual contributors to the vast majority of the world’s GDP locked down. How reasonable is that? Very little, in our view. The polarization of the political landscape has created a global brain freeze. Few analyses calmly assess the U.S. administrati...
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