ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 01/30/2025

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 30/01/2025

Wizz Air : FX and maintenance costs weight heavily on Q3 2024-25

Wizz Air : FX and maintenance costs weight heavily on Q3 2024-25

WOOD Daily: TXT PW; ELM AB; WIZZ LN; GE Macro; GARAN TI; KLKIM TI; PKN...

HEADLINES: • Text: AI revolution – a threat or an opportunity? (downgraded to HOLD) • Elm: new horizons (upgraded to BUY) • Wizz Air: 3Q FY25 – miss on lower revenue and higher CASKX NEGATIVE • Georgia macro: NBG decision and MoU in Abu Dhabi • Garanti Bank: 4Q24 results and 2025E guidance highlights NEUTRAL • Kalekim: exercises option to acquire a plant in Mugla POSITIVE • Orlen: to issue USD 1.25bn of 10-year bonds NEUTRAL • PKO BP: 4Q24E preview (due on 13 March) • Short News (CBF, CEZ)

WOOD Daily: EMEA Airlines; PZU PW; PCF PW; KRKG SV; ALR PW

HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: 4Q24 traffic; could constrained capacity support fares in 2025E? • PZU: CEO Olech dismissed, former CEO Klesyk returns • PCF Group: reveals details behind Maverick work-for-hire project NEUTRAL • Krka: 4Q24E earnings preview (due on 30 January) • Alior Bank: 4Q24E preview (due on 4 March)

WOOD Flash – EMEA Airlines: 4Q24 traffic; could constrained capacity s...

In 2024, European aviation capacity grew by around 9%. This was faster than the slow-growing economy could absorb, leading to fares underperforming expectations. For many carriers, we have also seen cost inflation. The lower fuel prices were an important tailwind, preventing margin erosion exceeding 1-2ppts (EBITDA) for the European carriers. Looking ahead, we expect capacity in Europe to grow by around a mid-single digit pace in 2025E, constrained by supply bottlenecks and engine durability iss...

WOOD Daily: ELM AB; TEN PW; WPS LN; PZU PW; CCC PW; JMT PL

HEADLINES: • Elm: signs an agreement to acquire Thiqah for SAR 3.4bn POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: Investor Day takeaways NEUTRAL • Eurowag: solid 4Q24 results but slow growth and higher capex in 2025E NEGATIVE • PZU: appoints Andrzej Klesyk to the supervisory board • CCC: 4Q24E prelims preview - we expect 82% yoy EBITDA growth (due on 10 February, TBC) • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q24E results preview – we expect 2% yoy EBITDA erosion (due on 19 March)

WOOD Daily: JMT PL; BELA GA; HU Macro; RO Macro; PGSUS TI; RICHT HB

HEADLINES: • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q24 trading statement slightly ahead of our expectations; lfl at Biedronka recovers to +1.1% POSITIVE • Jumbo: top-line growth slows to 2% in December, but still up 6.3% yoy in 2024, as expected NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: inflation jumps, MoF reiterates commitment to fiscal prudence • Romania macro: inflation surprises to the upside again • Pegasus Airlines: strong December traffic POSITIVE • Richter: announces positive top-line results for tocilizumab POSITIVE

AEGEAN AIRLINES | Cloudy Horizons, Strong Wings

Rising capacity weighing somewhat on 2025e outlook; we now expect mid single digit rise in 2025e EBITDA – With AIA capacity additions up double digits in H1’25, we raise our forecasts for Aegean’s capacity by 2%, now modelling +6% annual ASK growth in 2025e. We expect this supply backdrop to raise the bar for demand growth to sustain yields, thus envisaging mild pressure on pricing and stable load factors for 2025e. Against this backdrop, we have lowered our revenue forecasts by 1% in 2025e, whi...

AEGEAN AIRLINES | Cloudy Horizons, Strong Wings

Rising capacity weighing somewhat on 2025e outlook; we now expect mid single digit rise in 2025e EBITDA – With AIA capacity additions up double digits in H1’25, we raise our forecasts for Aegean’s capacity by 2%, now modelling +6% annual ASK growth in 2025e. We expect this supply backdrop to raise the bar for demand growth to sustain yields, thus envisaging mild pressure on pricing and stable load factors for 2025e. Against this backdrop, we have lowered our revenue forecasts by 1% in 2025e, whi...

WOOD Daily: PBK RO; THYAO TI; MIL PW; HUG PW

HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: making progress, but still some way to go (stays HOLD) • Turkish Airlines: 8% ASK growth in 2024 NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 483m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 4Q24E NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: 4Q24 bookings up 7% qoq NEUTRAL

Model update - RASK improves, but the FX distorts

Wizz Air will report its fiscal Q3/25 earnings on the 30th of January BMO. We expect the PAT to come in at EUR -206mn, driven by a significant FX revaluation loss of EUR 200mn on the back of USD appreciation. EBIT may come in at EUR 4mn in fiscal Q3, up by EUR 184mn compared to a year ago, resulting from a mix of RASK improvement and fuel cost savings. We roll-over our TP to Mar-26 and set it at GBP 22.1 a share, implying an upside potential of 59%

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: positive performances from all ind...

EME Equity Market – December 2024 A green December. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 2.9% in EUR terms and 0.8% in USD terms in December. The Greek ASE Index (+5.5% mom in EUR terms) was the best performer, followed closely by the Czech PX Index (+5.0% mom in EUR terms). Solid performances were also reported by the BET (+2.4% mom), BUX (+2.2% mom) and ISE 30 (+1.5% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). The Polish WIG 20 Index (+0.4% mom in EUR terms) reported a muted performance.

WOOD Daily: WIZZ LN; DAT PW; OPL PW

HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: slower yoy traffic in December, in line with the guidance NEUTRAL • DataWalk: key takeaways from the interview with the CEO NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: 4Q24E – 1% EBITDAaL growth yoy expected (due on 12 February)

WOOD Daily: CEZ CP; WIZZ LN; MBK PW; MBR PW; WPL PW; HUG PW; TEN PW; 1...

HEADLINES: • CEZ: government may try to include support for coal plants in draft gas bill NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: extends compensation agreement with PW until YE26 NEUTRAL • mBank: sees PLN 907m of FX mortgage saga costs in 4Q24E NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: update on increased fees in Wałbrzych for 2018 NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: agrees to acquire Invia Group for c.EUR 240m POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: December bookings estimate jumps by 18% mom, to USD 13m POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: December bookings estimat...

Aegean Airlines S.A.: 1 director

A director at Aegean Airlines S.A. bought 60,000 shares at 10.223EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...

WOOD Daily: PZU PW; ALR PW; PEO PW; RO Macro; GE Macro; CZ Macro; CEZ ...

HEADLINES: • PZU: discounted valuation for growing EPS and dividend yields (stays BUY) • Alior Bank: trading cheaply, but in stand-by mode (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: complicated, but not value destructive (stays BUY) • Romania macro: a frail situation • Georgia macro: NBG keeps policy rate unchanged, at 8.0%; sanctions from the US and the UK • Czech Republic macro: CNB keeps policy rate on hold • CEZ: government takes new nuclear financing plan under advisement NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: pre-clos...

Alior Bank: trading cheaply, but in stand-by mode (stays BUY)

We keep Alior Bank as a BUY and increase our 12M price target (PT) to PLN 114.3/share (vs. PLN 111.1 previously), which, in essence, is a valuation call. Alior is still the one of cheapest Polish banks under our coverage (2024-25E P/E and P/BV of 4.9-5.9x and 1.1-1.0x respectively) and offers a 10%+ dividend yield in the next 12 months. We see the bank as having a higher risk profile, and therefore, while the upside is appealing, especially the dividend yield, we see better risk-reward profiles ...

PZU: discounted valuation for growing EPS and dividend yields (stays B...

We rate PZU a BUY, with a new 12M price target (PT) of PLN 64.9/share, offering 42% upside potential. PZU is one of our top picks among the regional financials. We see its discounted valuation (2025E P/E of 6.8x and P/BV of 1.2x), and its status as one of the most reliable dividend payers in the region (9%+ yield next year), as attractive. This is in combination with positive fundamentals, including improving EPS momentum (our 2025E EPS is +18% yoy) and a medium-term performance supported by the...