reports
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PKN PW (stays BUY); ENA PW; EUROB GA; PEO PW
HEADLINES: • Orlen: who are you calling a refiner? (stays BUY) • Enea: signs an annex to its coal supply agreement with Bogdanka NEUTRAL • Eurobank Ergasias Services: Fairfax sells a 2.2% stake through an ABB NEUTRAL • Bank Pekao: 4Q24E preview (due on 27 February) • Short News (OPL)
- Bram Buring
- CFA
- Jonathan Lamb
Orlen: who are you calling a refiner? (stays BUY)
We maintain our BUY rating on Orlen, with an updated price target (PT) of PLN 73.3 (from PLN 90.3 previously), offering upside of 37.9%. Orlen is still on course to invest PLN 220bn by the end of the decade, both for growth and as it transitions to a less carbon-intensive business. The result will be a company that generates >PLN 40bn in EBITDA p.a., with upstream first, followed by the power and trade segments. The macro environment can hardly match the recent past, but with the exception of pe...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: KRU PW; MYTIL GA; PL Macro; PEO PW; HUG PW; GPP PW; GPP PW...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: 2025-29E strategy – ambitious, and sees further growth of earnings, assisted by high ROEs POSITIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: EUR 0.3bn capex plan to boost alumina capacity by 50% and produce gallium as well POSITIVE • Poland macro: NBP keeps rates unchanged, as expected • Bank Pekao: to add PLN 370m of FX mortgage provision charges, shielded by PLN 103m of deferred tax asset recognition; positive change in NPL stock NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: USD 3.5m impairment of investment in ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PKN PW; HUG PW; APR PW
HEADLINES: • Orlen: strategy update 2035 – evolution, rather than revolution NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: collective redundancies to reduce end-2024 headcount by c.28% POSITIVE • Auto Partner: December sales growth at a limited 6% yoy, well below our expectations NEGATIVE
- Jonathan Lamb
WOOD Flash – Orlen: strategy update 2035 – evolution, rather than revo...
Orlen announced a new strategy update yesterday (9 January), laying out management’s targets for 2035E and the path it will take to get there. This strategy update follows a change of management and, so, could have included major changes. In general however, much of the broad sweep of strategic choices resemble those in the previous plan, even though the details have changed. Management is still committed to a progressive dividend strategy, with a minor upward adjustment, which sees the 2025E di...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: TXT PW; TEN PW; PL Telecoms; PL Media; JMT PL
HEADLINES: • Text: key takeaways from the 3Q24-25 preliminary earnings call NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: 4Q24 bookings down by 2% qoq, slight miss vs. our expectations NEUTRAL • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 4Q24 NEGATIVE • Polish media: CPS audience share at 22.72%, while WP TV at 0.72% in December 2024 NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q24E trading update preview – 5% yoy sales growth expected (due on 14 January) NEUTRAL
- Jonathan Lamb
European Oil and Gas Monthly: December 2024
Average crude oil prices changed little in December, after production increases and perceived weakness in demand pushed prices down in November. The WOOD benchmark margin remains above average, despite reaching its lowest level in 2024, after declining by USD 0.7/bbl. Petrochemicals remains in the doldrums, with some product groups marginally better and others marginally worse.
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: positive performances from all ind...
EME Equity Market – December 2024 A green December. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 2.9% in EUR terms and 0.8% in USD terms in December. The Greek ASE Index (+5.5% mom in EUR terms) was the best performer, followed closely by the Czech PX Index (+5.0% mom in EUR terms). Solid performances were also reported by the BET (+2.4% mom), BUX (+2.2% mom) and ISE 30 (+1.5% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). The Polish WIG 20 Index (+0.4% mom in EUR terms) reported a muted performance.
CEZ CEZ AS
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
ENA ENEA S.A.
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
RICHT RICHTER
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
PCF PCF GROUP SA
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
CTPNV CTP NV
GPP GRUPA PRACUJ DA
BCG BALTIC CLASSIFIEDS GROUP PLC
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
4071 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
AQ AQUILA PART PROD COM
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
- Research Team
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PZU PW; ALR PW; PEO PW; RO Macro; GE Macro; CZ Macro; CEZ ...
HEADLINES: • PZU: discounted valuation for growing EPS and dividend yields (stays BUY) • Alior Bank: trading cheaply, but in stand-by mode (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: complicated, but not value destructive (stays BUY) • Romania macro: a frail situation • Georgia macro: NBG keeps policy rate unchanged, at 8.0%; sanctions from the US and the UK • Czech Republic macro: CNB keeps policy rate on hold • CEZ: government takes new nuclear financing plan under advisement NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: pre-clos...
- Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska
- Miguel Dias
Bank Pekao: complicated, but not value destructive (stays BUY)
We have lowered our 12M price target (PT) slightly, to PLN 212.4/share (from PLN 227.5), as a consequence of our model adjustments. We have reduced our dividend payout ratio to 50%, from 62.5% previously, and rolled our model forward to 2027E. We are bought in to the potential equity story of Bank Pekao on its own, and see it as well positioned for a potential new lending cycle. It may also be boosted by the new management getting back on track with a decision-making process oriented towards mar...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: Greek banks; TPE PW; EME Macro/Strategy
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: government imposes cap on money transfer fees, and new taxes related to real estate and school rebuilding NEGATIVE • Tauron: results of the 2029 capacity market auction NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (9-15 December) • Short News (MBR)
- Research Team
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: LPP PW; RO Macro; EAT PW; 11B PW; ENA PW; RICHT HB; OTP HB...
HEADLINES: • LPP: soft 3Q24 – EBIT down 9% yoy; FY24E guidance maintained; FY25E guidance in line with our expectations on P&L, but rollout acceleration to 35-40% yoy NEGATIVE • Romania macro: update on inflation and the political negotiations • AmRest: interim dividend of EUR 0.07 POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: launches project analysis, may result in impairment losses NEGATIVE • Enea: highlights from management board meeting on strategy update NEUTRAL • Richter: FDA accepts submission for denosuma...
Eurobank Ergasias Services And Holdings: 3 directors
Three Directors at Eurobank Ergasias Services And Holdings sold 80,000 shares at between 2.245EUR and 2.247EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the compa...
- Jonathan Lamb
European Oil and Gas Monthly: November 2024 – gas inventories down, pr...
Perceived weakness in demand brought oil prices lower in November and threatens to push them lower still. OPEC freezing production for another three months may not be enough. For the second month running, the WOOD benchmark margin was close to average, while HELLENiQ’s margins rose and Orlen’s fell. Petrochemicals remains in the doldrums, despite lower oil prices.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: BCG LN; KTY PW; CDR PW; 11B PW; BFT PW; BDX PW; OPL PW; PG...
HEADLINES: • Baltic Classifieds Group: strong FY 1H25 financial results; conference call takeaways POSITIVE • Kety: Roman Przybylski (current deputy CEO) to become new CEO NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: update on the US class action lawsuit regarding the technical solutions used by GOG NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: starts marketing campaign for Moonlighter 2 publishing project NEUTRAL • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2024 • 11 bit studios: postcard from Prague • Benefit Systems: postcard from Prague...
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
TKNSA TEKNOSA IC VE DIS TICARET AS
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
RICHT RICHTER
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
BCG BALTIC CLASSIFIEDS GROUP PLC
GIG GAMING INNOVATION GROUP
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PL Utilities; GPP PW; PZU PW; HU Macro; 4IG HB; CPS PW; WP...
HEADLINES: • Polish utilities: with coal, through thick and thin (Enea (HOLD), PGE (SELL) and Tauron (HOLD) - transfer of coverage) • Grupa Pracuj: volume rebound expected in 2025E (upgraded to BUY) • PZU: strong profits and attractive shareholder returns implied by 2025-27E strategy update POSITIVE • Hungary macro: MNB nominations and opinion polls swings • 4iG: 3Q24 conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat/Wirtualna Polska: CPS audience share at 22.26%, while WP TV at 0.69% in Novemb...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkiye rebounds, Romania declines
EME Equity Market – November 2024 Rebound in Türkiye, Romania hammered. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 3.8% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms in November. The Turkish ISE30 recouped the losses of the previous month, adding 10.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX added 4.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the PX (+2.9% mom), the ASE (+0.8% mom) and the WIG (+0.8% mom) (all in EUR terms). Following the first round of presidential elections, and the polemic and uncertainty that ensued, the BET ...
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
RICHT RICHTER
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
R22 R22
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ILRA-R-A ILIRIJA D.D.
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
DUNAHOUSE DUNA HOUSE
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
CTPNV KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
ONE CTP NV
GPP ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
KLKIM GRUPA PRACUJ DA
GIG KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
2381 GAMING INNOVATION GROUP
9526 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
ELPE JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
4071 HELLENIQ ENERGY
7203 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
AQ ELM CO
TRESTATES AQUILA PART PROD COM
AIRA TRADE ESTATES REIC SA
GEV AIR ASTANA JSC
BOCHGR GEVORKYAN A.S.
BANK OF CYPRUS
- Bram Buring
- CFA
- Jakub Bronicki
Polish Utilities: with coal, through thick and thin (Enea (HOLD), PGE ...
Following a change in analyst responsibilities, we transfer coverage, and update our forecasts and outlook, of the Polish utilities, due to the recent (non) development of the coal carve out. In view of: 1) Enea’s recent strategy update, assuming coal generation within the group until 2035E; 2) Tauron’s comments on “being prepared” for no carve out; and 3) with no dedicated funds in the 2025 budget to finance the plan, we do not see a carve out happening soon. While we do not rule it out, the ch...
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