EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
AT: AT&S - Prelim. Q4 21/22 above expectations, FY outlook better on top line, EBITDA guidance mixed on start-up costs (neutral) AT: S IMMO - Considers sale of Germany residential assets (neutral) AT: Vienna Insurance Group - Strong premium growth, EBT below expectations on provisions for impact of war (neutral) PL: CCC - CEO expects a good Q2 with substantial sales growth and slight gross margin improvement, FY sales seen at PLN 9-10 bn (positive) PL: PGNiG - Considering entering into a long-te...
HEADLINES: • Wirtualna Polska: strong 1Q22, with adjusted EBITDA up 19% yoy, 7% above our estimate POSITIVE • Shoper: 1Q22 results in line with preliminary guidance NEUTRAL • Patria Bank: 1Q22 results review - strong NII offset by weaker other income and higher costs • DIGI Communications: 1Q22 results - pro forma adjusted EBITDA up 9% yoy, in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • DataWalk: preliminary 1Q22 results - sales up 21% yoy, to PLN 4.18m NEGATIVE • Terna Energy: Investor Day highlights • ...
AT: AMAG - Q1 results in line with RBIe but above consensus, major cash drain from NWC, FY 22 EBITDA guidance of > EUR 200 mn heralds (expected) upside to estimates (neutral) AT: Andritz - Record order backlog, in-line results and guidance confirmed (positive) AT: Erste Group - Q1 22 net profit beating expectations / strong core revenues offset by higher opex and weak trading result / guidance for 2022 marginally tweaked upwards / CET1 drop should be only temporary (positive) AT: Oester...
EME Equity Market – March 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks mostly in the black, despite the MSCI EM Europe Index losing half of its value. Following its decline in February, the MSCI EM Europe Index lost in March as well, declining by 49.5% in EUR terms and 50.1% in USD terms. Russia’s MOEX Index added 13.2% in EUR terms and 9.4% RUB terms (we note that Russian companies’ GDRs are still suspended for trading). The Turkish ISE30 Index added 8.2% in EUR terms and 13.3% in local curren...
The independent financial analyst theScreener just requalified the general evaluation of PJSC LUKOIL 144A ADR (RU), active in the Integrated Oil & Gas industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title still shows 0 out of 4 stars and its market behaviour is seen as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the unfavourable environment weighs on the sector and penalises the company, which sees a downgrade to its general evaluation to Slightly Negative. As of the analysis date March 15, ...
MARKET COMMENT - RUBLE FLAT IN MOSCOW, UP 10% ABROAD ON EPHEMERAL NEGOTIATION HOPESThe third week of the market's forced suspension continues. Headlines suggesting some progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations yesterday supported the ruble and dragged on oil, though no material outcomes have yet been reached. Global markets were generally risk-off. STORIES> Halyk Bank 4Q21 IFRS: Very strong year, awaiting thoughts on outlook> Russian retail: Food inflation outlook> Sovcomflot 4Q21 IFRS review: Su...
РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГВчера Минфин РФ опубликовал пресс-релиз с подробной информацией об утвержденном временном порядке исполнения государственных долговых обязательств России в иностранной валюте. Согласно ему, Минфин России будет давать платежные поручения банкам-агентам для осуществления выплат в валюте. Фактическая возможность осуществления указанных выплат будет зависеть от санкционных ограничений в отношении возможности Правительства и Банка России распоряжаться средствами на свои...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - КУРС РУБЛЯ НА МОСБИРЖЕ НЕ ИЗМЕНИЛСЯ, А НА ВНЕШНЕМ РЫНКЕ - УКРЕПИЛСЯ НА 10% БЛАГОДАРЯ СЛАБЫМ НАДЕЖДАМ НА ПЕРЕГОВОРЫ УКРАИНЫ И РОССИИРоссийский фондовый рынок закрыт уже третью неделю. Котировки бумаг российских компаний, торги по которым еще проводятся на зарубежных площадках, вчера просели на 1,8-4,8%. НОВОСТИ> Нефть продолжает дешеветь из-за усиления карантинных мер в Китае> Результаты Халык Банка за 4К21 по МСФО: очень сильный год, ждем оценки дальнейших перспектив> Рос...
CIS EUROBOND MARKETYesterday, the Finance Ministry published a press release laying out the details of its now-approved temporary regime for servicing Russia's FX-denominated sovereign bonds. The ministry will send payment orders to agent banks to carry out payment in foreign currencies. Whether these payments can actually be made will depend on the sanctions restricting operations involving the government's and CBR's FX accounts. If a foreign correspondent bank does not execute a payment order,...
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: difficult year ahead, but sell-off excessive (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: very solid 4Q21, but disappointing dividend proposal • BIM: 4Q21 strongly above expectations POSITIVE • Ciech: 4Q21 preliminary adjusted EBITDA 5% above the consensus, but quality of profit is high POSITIVE • Sberbank: 4Q21 results • Lukoil: FY21 financial results review • Alrosa: 4Q21 IFRS results - EBITDA down 25% qoq, on lower revenues per carat • Polymetal: 2H21 IFRS results - top line and EBIT...
CIS EUROBOND MARKETThe Russian sovereign Eurobond market remains illiquid and prices have been flat. GOVERNMENT DEBTTrading in OFZs remains suspended.STORIES> Basic sector output rises in January, but will decline over the rest of the year> Weekly inflation surges to 0.45% over February 19-25> GDP could decline by 10-15% in 2022> Alrosa posts 4Q21 and 2021 IFRS results> Lukoil 4Q21 review: Strong financial update
MARKET COMMENT - GOVERNMENT MULLS BUYING MORE STOCK, MSCI EXPELS RUSSIARussian stocks remained frozen in Moscow and were mostly frozen abroad as well yesterday. The government is mulling tapping more of the NWF to buy Russian stocks. MSCI will expel Russia from global benchmarks, and ratings agencies have cut the market to junk status.STORIES> MSCI expels Russia from global and emerging benchmarks> GDP could decline by 10-15% in 2022> Weekly inflation surges to 0.45% over February 19-25> Basic s...
РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГВчера ликвидность на рынке российских суверенных еврооблигаций оставалась низкой, котировки практически не изменились. ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ЦЕННЫЕ БУМАГИНа рынке ОФЗ торги сегодня проводиться не будут.НОВОСТИ> За период с 19 по 25 февраля недельная инфляция в России достигла 0,45%> Выпуск в базовых отраслях России в январе вырос> АЛРОСА представила финансовые показатели за 4К21 и 2021> ЛУКОЙЛ: сильные финансовые результаты за 4К21
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗПроизводство в базовых отраслях российской экономики выросло в январе на 1% по сравнению с предыдущим месяцем (с учетом корректировки на сезонную составляющую) после роста на 0,6% в декабре. Динамика улучшилась благодаря оптовой торговли и грузообороту транспорта. В период с 19 по 25 февраля потребительские цены в России выросли на 0,45% против 0,24% неделей ранее. Причинами, судя по всему, стали повышение спроса на непродовольственные товары, а также ослабление рубля, котор...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented dislocations of capital and resources, on top of human tragedies. The sanctions imposed, by the world’s key nations, on Russia, its politicians, institutions, companies and businessmen, as well as the counter-measures introduced by the Russian government, are wide-ranging and continue to be imposed on a daily basis. The most severe sanctions are related to the freezing of the CBR’s FX reserves, as well as the freezing of non-residents’ assets...
The 4Q21 earnings season is about to kick off starting with Rosneft on Friday, followed by Novatek (February 16) and Gazprom Neft (February 17) next week. Lukoil, Tatneft and Gazprom will report 4Q21 financials in March-April. We expect sector EBITDA to rise again, particularly in the gas segment amid record high European gas prices. Dividend distributions should rise across the sector as well. Based on our estimates for 4Q21, most of the companies should see their full-year financials bounce ba...
PL: mBank - Q4 21 net loss of PLN 1.6 bn broadly in line with consensus and RBI / FX mortgage dilution and surprise in NII (positive) RO: Romgaz - Romgaz maintained flat yoy gas production in Q4 21 (neutral) RU: LUKoil - FY 2021 operating results came close to estimates (neutral)
MARKET COMMENT - MARKETS MELTING UP; NEW US SANCTIONS BILL IMMINENTThe MSCI ACWI climbed 1.7% as global markets continued to climb on the last day of the month, with consumer discretionary and tech names in the lead. Easing US futures and a lack of fundamental drivers signal the global rally needs a new catalyst to push further. Russia melted up yesterday, the RTS climbing 2.0% to 1,435, while a new US sanctions bill and diplomatic headlines appear imminent today, as detailed below.STORIES> Luko...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - НАСТРОЙ НА РЫНКАХ УЛУЧШИЛСЯ, В США ОЖИДАЕТСЯ НОВЫЙ ЗАКОНОПРОЕКТ О САНКЦИЯХИндекс MSCI ACWI вчера прибавил 1,7%, глобальные рынки в последний день января продолжали расти, при этом больше всего поднялись котировки потребительских и высокотехнологичных компаний. Снижение фьючерсов на фондовые индексы США и нехватка фундаментальных драйверов свидетельствуют о том, что для продолжения ралли на глобальных рынках необходим новый катализатор. На российском рынке вчера настрой ул...
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