КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗВ пÑтницу РоÑнефть опубликовала результаты за 1К20, оказавшиеÑÑ Ð² целом на уровне прогнозов, и провела телефонную конференцию. Федеральный бюджет РФ в апреле оÑталÑÑ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ñ„Ð¸Ñ†Ð¸Ñ‚Ð½Ñ‹Ð¼ Ð±Ð»Ð°Ð³Ð¾Ð´Ð°Ñ€Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ÑтуплениÑм от Ñделки по Сбербанку.ÐОВОСТИ> Отток капитала из...
MARKET COMMENTGlobal markets were a mixed picture on Friday. In Russia, Rosneft reported 1Q20 results that were generally in line, while revenues from the Sberbank deal kept the budget in surplus in April.STORIES> Current account and trade balances remained positive in April> Revenues from Sberbank deal help keep budget in surplus in April> Ruble supported in May as old FX sales mechanism likely brought back> Rosneft 1Q20: Generally in line, though FX losses larger than forecast> Rosneft 1Q20 IF...
MARKET COMMENT - WEAKER OIL, JACKSON HOLE, ECB, PMIS, ITALIAN POLITICS ON TODAY'S AGENDAThe RTS climbed 1.2% yesterday to 1,280, continuing to bounce back from a recent underperformance versus peers. Both the MSCI EM and World (DM) ended the day in positive territory. The Fed minutes revealed no distinct plans for a new easing cycle, while today much global market focus will be on the start of the Jackson Hole symposium, ECB minutes, flash PMIs, and the ongoing collapse of the Italian government...
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - СЕГОДÐЯ Ð’ ЦЕÐТРЕ Ð’ÐИМÐÐИЯ СÐИЖЕÐИЕ ЦЕРÐÐ ÐЕФТЬ, СИМПОЗИУМ Ð’ ДЖЕКСОÐ-ХОУЛ, ПРОТОКОЛ ЗÐСЕДÐÐИЯ ЕЦБ, ИÐДЕКСЫ PMI И ПОЛИТИЧЕСКÐЯ СИТУÐЦИЯ Ð’ ИТÐÐ›Ð˜Ð˜Ð˜Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð Ð¢Ð¡ вчера поднÑлÑÑ Ð½Ð° 1,2% до 1 280 пунктов, Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ð´Ð¾Ð»Ð¶Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ñ‚Ñ‹Ð³Ñ€Ñ‹Ð²Ð°Ñ‚ÑŒ отÑтавание от аналогов в поÑледние дни. ...
MARKET COMMENT - RUSSIA AT TOP OF EMS YESTERDAY; OIL AND CHINA IN RETREAT TODAYThe RTS gained 1.1% yesterday to 1,261, and Russia easily led EMs. Lukoil (+4.1%) helped drive the index higher, while outside the index QIWI surged 17%. Tatneft and Novatek will swap spots in the MSCI Russia 10-40. Oil and Chinese markets are in retreat today as the winds shift in political rhetoric, which suggests some consolidation on Russia's open.STORIES> EMs see larger outflow amid heightened trade rhetoric> Rus...
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - РОССИЯ ЛИДИРУЕТ СРЕДИ Ð ÐЗВИВÐЮЩИХСЯ РЫÐКОВ; ÐЕФТЬ ДЕШЕВЕЕТ, РЫÐОК КИТÐЯ СЕГОДÐЯ ОТСТУПÐÐ•Ð¢Ð˜Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð Ð¢Ð¡ вчера Ð²Ñ‹Ñ€Ð¾Ñ Ð½Ð° 1,1% до 1 261 пункта, РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð»ÐµÐ³ÐºÐ¾ обошла оÑтальные развивающиеÑÑ Ñ€Ñ‹Ð½ÐºÐ¸. Ðтому ÑпоÑобÑтвовал роÑÑ‚ котировок ЛУКойла до 4,1%. Вне раÑчетной Ð...
MARKET COMMENT - US/CHINA WORRIES WEIGH ON MARKETS, BUT RUSSIA BETTER OFF THAN MOSTMarkets retreated globally yesterday after doubts emerged that the US and China are close to a new trade deal, as had been claimed by both sides for months. The MSCI EM tumbled 1.9%, with China the worst performer with a drop of 3.4% in MSCI terms. Russia was nearly the best EM performer with a 0.2% decline on major indexes, in part thanks to rising oil prices on Middle Eastern supply concerns. Markets remain weak...
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - СИТУÐЦИЯ ВОКРУГ СШРИ КÐРВЫЗЫВÐЕТ ПЕССИМИЗМ ÐРРЫÐКÐÐ¥, РОССИЯ ВЫГЛЯДИТ ЛУЧШЕ БОЛЬШИÐСТВРÐÐÐЛОГОВВчера глобальные рынки упали из-за опаÑений, что СШРи Китай не так близки к договоренноÑти по внешней торговле, как утверждалоÑÑŒ ранее. Ð˜Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ MSCI EM упÐ...
Novatek and Rosneft are set to kick off 1Q19 earnings season in the Russian oil and gas sector. We expect slightly stronger FCF generation for Rosneft and positive one-offs for Novatek. Despite weaker headline oil prices, upstream profitability should be stronger as export duties fell more than the crude price did (the so-called lag effect), with the export crude oil price less base taxes increasing by 13% Q-o-Q. In addition, the cost base was seasonally lower. In the oil sector in particular, F...
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - ГЛОБÐЛЬÐÐЯ КОÐСОЛИДÐЦИЯ, BREXIT И ВСТРЕЧРВЛÐДИМИРРПУТИÐРС БИЗÐЕСМЕÐÐÐœÐ˜Ð˜Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð Ð¢Ð¡ вчера отÑтупил на 0,6% до 1 182 пунктов, MSCI EM проÑел на 0,2%. Ð’ отÑутÑтвие новых значимых факторов на рынках наблюдалаÑÑŒ фикÑÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸Ð±Ñ‹Ð»Ð¸. Темами Ð´Ð½Ñ Ð² новоÑÑ‚ÑÑ… Ñтали вÑтреча ...
MARKET COMMENT - MTS SLUMPS ON FRIDAY; MSCI, SANCTIONS, US/CHINA, BREXIT ON AGENDARussia slightly outperformed on a globally flattish Friday, except for a more than 8% decline in the MTS ADR. US/China news flow was mixed over the weekend and will likely remain a major topic for global markets today. Other items on this week's agenda include MSCI's rebalancing, a US hearing on sanctions and the threat of another government shutdown, another Brexit plan for the UK Parliament, and more that we deta...
Russia's oil sector is in the midst of another - supposedly final - tax maneuver. The export duty is gradually being phased out, while excess profit taxation (EPT) is on the way in. Getting one's head around the complicated and oft-changing taxation of Russia's oil sector can be a daunting task, but understanding the intricacies can improve visibility on the sector's cash flows. Despite the oil price correction in 2H18 and ongoing changes to taxation, we believe the financial outlook for the oil...
MARKET COMMENT - RUSSIA OUTPACES PEERS YESTERDAY; US RESULTS COMING OUT AS EXPECTEDAfter Monday's holiday, yesterday assets traded in Moscow had a chance to catch up with the positive trend, leading the RTS to gain a solid 1.4% to 1,151. Russia's 1.3% gain in MSCI terms put it at the top of the more liquid EMs, while the MSCI EM ended the day flat. US developments so far have come out as expected. This morning, APAC markets look constructive, while we expect a flat open for the RTS.STORIES> US a...
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - РОССИЯ ВЧЕРРОПЕРЕДИЛРÐÐÐЛОГИ; РЕЗУЛЬТÐТЫ ВЫБОРОВ Ð’ СШРСООТВЕТСТВОВÐЛИ ОЖИДÐÐИЯМВ понедельник в РоÑÑии был выходной день, а на глобальных рынках наметилÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð·Ð¸Ñ‚Ð¸Ð²Ð½Ñ‹Ð¹ тренд, и во вторник роÑÑийÑкий рынок Ñтал его догонÑÑ‚ÑŒ: Ð¸Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð Ð¢Ð¡ по итогам днÑ...
ÐОВОСТИ> Ðа глобальных рынках преобладает позитивный наÑтрой > РоÑнефть: хороший Ñвободный денежный поток, дальнейшее Ñокращение долга> Башнефть: динамика оборотного капитала за 2К18 обнадеживает> AЛРОСÐ: утверждена Ð½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ñ Ð´Ð¸Ð²Ð¸Ð´ÐµÐ½Ð´Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸Ñ‚Ð¸ÐºÐ°, рекомендованы щедрые дивидеÐ...
MARKET COMMENTThe RTS underperformed peers yesterday, dropping 1.1% to 1,160 versus 0.1% and 0.2% declines for the MSCI EM and World (DM) indexes. Weakness in the ruble appeared to be a key factor. The Fed meeting came out largely as expected, with the US central bank noting the "strong" economy and, in our view, setting the stage for a hike in September. This morning, APAC markets are under heavy pressure, and, combined with weakness yesterday and today in oil prices, we expect a slightly lower...
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