reports
- Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Navigating headwinds and uncovering opportunities upon...
Chinese internet companies’ share prices have dropped 10-30% mtd following the implementation of incremental tariffs from the US. Chinese internet companies have limited business exposure to the US except for PDD’s Temu. However, the 34% tariffs announced by China on all US imports could have potential implications for China mega-caps’ AI capex in relation to US chip imports. We prefer domestic-focused plays which stand to benefit from domestic policy stimuli, with Southbound inflow to be a key ...
NEH NETEASE INC. SPONSORED ADR
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
N1U NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC. SPONSORED ADR
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q24 – Mobility & Delivery: Healthy underlying growth
Today, we are publishing the Mobility & Delivery section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Later this week we will publish sections on Memory, Semicap, Enterprise IT, PC. Ride-sharing bookings decelerated slightly but still posted robust double-digit growth, while delivery bookings a...
- Jin Yoon
NTES 4Q24 Results: Gaming Could Remain Resilient in 1Q
What’s new: NetEase’s reported 4Q24 revs that were below consensus estimates and our expectations. Gaming could remain resilient in 1Q partly driven by new titles such as Marvel Rivals and Where Winds Meet, while other segments could remain under pressure as NTES could prioritize profitability over scale in the near-term. We maintain our PT at USD120. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
NetEase (9999 HK): 4Q24: Solid earnings beat; promising pipeline and A...
NetEase’s 4Q24 earnings were above expectations. Revenue dropped 1% yoy to Rmb26.7b, largely in line with consensus forecast. Gross profit dipped 3% yoy to Rmb16.3b, with gross margin rising 1ppt yoy to 61%. Non-GAAP operating profit grew 14% yoy to Rmb8.7b, with operating margin at 32.7%. Non-GAAP net profit rose 31.2% yoy to Rmb9.7b, beating consensus estimate. Net margin expanded 9ppt yoy to 36% in 4Q24. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$200.00 (US$128.00).
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Friday, February 21, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China auto sales rebounded in the seventh week of 2025, but remained low compared with the previous month due to consumers’ wait-and-see sentiment amid a price war and the transitional period of product upgrade. Zeekr’s acquisition of Lynk & Co strengthens Geely’s premium EV strategy. GWM has unveiled a strategy for affordable smart driving solutions. DeepSeek is gaining traction among automakers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay S...
- Jin Yoon
BIDU 4Q24 Results: AI Cloud Remains Resilient
What’s new: Baidu’s reported 4Q24 top-line results that were largely in line with consensus and our expectations. Baidu Core ad rev growth could potentially bottom out in 4Q24 and recover throughout 2025 partly driven by monetization of gen-AI search ads. AI Cloud could remain resilient partly driven by demand for gen-AI related services. We maintain our PT at USD110. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Baidu Inc (9888 HK): 4Q24: Solid earnings beat and strong AI cloud rev...
Baidu’s 4Q24 earnings beat expectations. Revenue dipped 2% yoy to Rmb34.1b, in line with consensus estimate. Gross margin inched down 3ppt yoy to 47.2%, within consensus expectation. Non-GAAP operating profit was Rmb5b, down 29% yoy, while non-GAAP operating profit margin came in at 15%. Non-GAAP net profit plummeted 13% yoy to Rmb6.7b, albeit surpassing consensus estimate by 39%. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged target price of HK$93.00 (US$103.00).
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Greater China Daily: Wednesday, February 19, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$90.20/Target: HK$93.00) Baidu’s 4Q24 earnings beat expectations. Revenue dipped 2% yoy to Rmb34.1b, in line with consensus estimate. Gross margin inched down 3ppt yoy to 47.2%, within consensus expectation. Non-GAAP operating profit was Rmb5b, down 29% yoy, while non-GAAP operating profit margin came in at 15%. Non-GAAP net profit plummeted 13% yoy to Rmb6.7b, albeit surpassing consensus estimate by 39%. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged target p...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Growth potential and AI development trends following e...
Amid geopolitical uncertainties, the emergence of DeepSeek models have ignited a major AI industry shake-up, garnered investor attention and drawn wide developer interest in the Chinese AI industry as it lowers the technical and financial barriers in deploying LLM. An increasing number of global hyperscalers and application companies have facilitated the deployment of DeepSeek and Qwen models, further expanding their accessibility and adoption. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Baidu Inc (9888 HK): 4Q24 preview: Online ad weakness persists; poised...
Baidu’s 4Q24 results will be released on 18 Feb 25. We forecast 4Q24 revenue dropping 4% yoy, mainly dampened by a subdued macro backdrop. Management expects online ad revenue to drop at a high single digit yoy in 4Q24, deepening the decline from 3Q24. However, AI Cloud revenue growth is guided to ramp up in 4Q24 and maintain its double-digit growth in 2025, with GenAI now accounting for 11% of cloud revenue. Maintain HOLD with a lower target price of HK$80.00 (US$89.00).
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Greater China Research Team
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
Greater China Daily: Monday, January 27, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Aviation: Airlines Based on their preliminary earnings estimates, all three airlines remained in a loss-making position for 2024. This is below our expectations as we were expecting Air China and CSA to record slight profits. The losses were likely due to the sector’s overcapacity situation, but we remain hopeful for the sector’s turnaround in 2025 helped by further demand growth. Having said that, a moderate earnings recovery is not enough to resolve the airlines’ balanc...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: NetEase’s recent game releases; rejuvenation of Tencen...
In view of a stable regulatory backdrop and competitive market landscape, we have identified a few themes for the game sector in 2025, including high-quality blockbuster releases, overseas expansion and AI integration. The online gaming sector remains a countercyclical play and is less susceptible to macro softness. We are shifting our preference to NetEase in view of its solid progress in recent new game releases, which is fuelling grossing growth visibility in 2025. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Jin Yoon
BIDU 4Q24 Preview: Lowering BIDU Core Margin Estimates
What’s New: We nudge down our 4Q24 and 1Q25 Baidu Core non-GAAP OPM estimates partly to reflect the impairment losses related to JIDU in 4Q and potential investments in user acquisitions related to search and other consumer-facing related products in 1Q. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: 1H25 outlook shaped by implications of fiscal stimuli ...
We saw largely in-line top-line growth across companies in 3Q24, mainly pressured by a lukewarm macro environment, but with earnings beat thanks to enhanced efficiency from AI integration. Alongside pending visibility on further domestic supportive policies, we believe the key 2025 highlights are: a) re-acceleration of e-commerce GMV growth, b) potential upside in ad take rate monetisation, c) rejuvenation of online games grossing, and d) sustained travel enthusiasm. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Jin Yoon
BIDU 3Q24 Results: Monetization of Gen-AI Search Could Take Time to Ma...
What’s new: Baidu’s reported 3Q24 top-line results that were largely in line with consensus and our expectations. Baidu Core ads could remain challenging in 4Q partly due to macro and limited monetization related to gen-AI search. AI Cloud rev growth could accelerate in 4Q partly driven by gen-AI related revs. We lower our PT from USD130 to USD110 amid lowered outlook. Our updated PT of USD110 implies 10.6x FY25E P/E. We maintain our BUY rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Baidu Inc (9888 HK/): 3Q24: Earnings miss on AIGC investment; expect s...
Baidu’s 3Q24 results came in below expectations. Revenue grew 3% yoy to Rmb33.6b, in line with consensus estimate. Gross margin inched down 2ppt yoy to 51.1%, within consensus expectation. Non-GAAP operating profit was Rmb7b, down 8% yoy, while non-GAAP operating profit margin came in at 21%. Non-GAAP net profit plummeted 19% yoy to Rmb5.9b, missing consensus estimate by 6%. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged target price of HK$90.00 (US$100.00).
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Colin Lee
- Gigi Cheuk
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Greater China Daily: Friday, November 22, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s PV insurance registrations grew 29% yoy, 15% mom and 14% wow during 11-17 Nov 24. PEV market share dipped 2.6ppt wow to 51.5%. BYD's price cuts aim to boost sales but risk pressuring 4Q24 margins. The NDRC indicated support for ICE-cars, the first time in recent years. The Guangzhou Auto Show highlighted record-breaking figures and new trends in technology, models and pricing. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, and Desay SV. IT Hardware Co...
- Jin Yoon
NTES 3Q24 Results: PC to Drive Near-Term Gaming Growth
What’s new: NetEase’s reported 3Q24 revs that were largely in-line with consensus estimates. Mobile games could continue to see tougher YoY comps in 4Q, while PC games could remain resilient partly driven by new game launches and contribution from Blizzard games. We maintain our PT at USD90. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
NetEase (9999 HK): 3Q24: Earnings miss; eyeing encouraging game pipeli...
NetEase’s 3Q24 results were below expectations. Revenue dropped 4% yoy to Rmb26.2b, lower than our and consensus forecasts. Gross profit dipped 3% yoy to Rmb16.5b, with gross margin rising 1ppt yoy to 63%. Non-GAAP operating profit fell 3% yoy to Rmb8.1b, with operating margin of 29%. Non-GAAP net profit tumbled 13.3% yoy to Rmb7.5b, missing consensus estimate. Net margin shrank 3ppt yoy to 29% in 3Q24. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$144.00 (US$92.00).
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