reports
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Calls
The HSI and MSCI China index rebounded 5.3% mom and 3.5% mom respectively in May, after China and the US agreed on a 90-day tariff truce. Nonetheless, geopolitical uncertainties and tariff war risks remain. Hence, we continue to favour domestic policy beneficiaries and defensive sectors that have been gaining traction in recent weeks. New additions to our BUY list are Prudential and Sino Biopharm, and we take profit on SHKP and Trip.com.
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
PRU PRUDENTIAL PLC
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
- Jin Yoon
BABA FY4Q25 Results: Continued Investments in Core Businesses
What’s new: Alibaba’s reported FY4Q25 top-line results that were below consensus and our expectations. CMR growth could continue to be supported by take rate improvement, while Cloud could further accelerate partly driven by AI-related products revs. Margins could be adversely impacted due to continued investments in core businesses. We maintain our PT at USD155. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Alibaba Group (9988 HK): 4QFY25: Slight earnings miss; CMR delivers be...
Alibaba’s 4QFY25 earnings slightly missed expectations. Revenue grew 7% yoy to Rmb236.5b, in line with the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit rose 22% yoy to Rmb29.8b, missing consensus forecasts, with net margin of 12.6%. CMR revenue growth of 12% yoy exceeded expectations, propelled by the introduction of service fees, take rate improvement and the national subsidies programme. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$165.00 (US$165.00).
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Greater China Research Team
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Sunny Chen
Greater China Daily: Friday, May 16, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s PV insurance registrations rose 0.5% yoy, 26.5% mom and 5% wow in the 19th week of 2025, with PEV market share increasing to 50.2%. Geely’s Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy saw strong sales growth driven by new model launches, aggressive pricing, tech upgrades, and robust export expansion. We lift Geely’s 2025 net profit forecast by 24%, given its upbeat 1Q25 earnings. Maintain BUY and raise target price to HK$31.00 Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Ge...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Lester Siew
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Ming San Soong
- Philip Wong
- Sunny Chen
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, May 16, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PEV sales edged up wow. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Healthcare: The rising robotic surgical system market in China. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$128.90/Target: HK$165.00): 4QFY25: Slight earnings miss; CMR delivers better-than-expected double-digit growth. Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$19.58/Target: HK$31.00): 1Q25: Earnings beat on forex gain and associate profit. Maintain BUY. Raise target price to HK$31...
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
CENTEL CENTRAL PLAZA HOTEL
AOT AIRPORTS OF THAILAND PUBLIC CO. LTD.
SPOST SINGAPORE POST LTD
DLG DIALOG GROUP BHD
DBB DUOPHARMA BIOTECH BHD
09999 NETEASE INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
STECON STECON GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls
The HSI and MSCI China index fell 4.3% mom and 5.2% mom respectively in April, driven by Trump’s tariff announcements in early-April and fears of a potential global recession. Due to the ongoing external uncertainties, we will maintain our exposure to domestic policy beneficiaries and defensive sectors. New additions to our BUY list are Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, and Trip.com, and we take profit of CR Land and JBM Healthcare.
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Navigating headwinds and uncovering opportunities upon...
Chinese internet companies’ share prices have dropped 10-30% mtd following the implementation of incremental tariffs from the US. Chinese internet companies have limited business exposure to the US except for PDD’s Temu. However, the 34% tariffs announced by China on all US imports could have potential implications for China mega-caps’ AI capex in relation to US chip imports. We prefer domestic-focused plays which stand to benefit from domestic policy stimuli, with Southbound inflow to be a key ...
NEH NETEASE INC. SPONSORED ADR
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
N1U NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC. SPONSORED ADR
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Monetisation potential and trends of AI agent from the...
Seeing great opportunities in AI development, major China cloud hyperscalers are significantly lifting their AI investment in 2025. With the launch of Manus, we are more optimistic about the accelerating monetisation capabilities of AI agents and applications through API integration and tool utilisation, which benefit cloud hyperscalers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
A Majority of Businesses Intrigued by the Potential of AI in Achieving...
EQS Newswire / 10/03/2025 / 03:30 CET/CEST More than one in two organizations acknowledge gap in understanding how digital technology can facilitate achieving sustainability goalsHANGZHOU, CHINA - - 10 March 2025 - Over three quarters of businesses (76%) across Asia, Europe and the Middle East are intrigued by the potential of digital technologies, including AI and cloud computing in driving sustainable development, according to the latest survey report titled "Tech-Driven Sustainability Trends and Index 2024", commissioned by Alibaba Cloud, the digital technology and intelligence backbo...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Potential implications from implementation of social s...
JD and Meituan announced plans to gradually begin providing social security coverage for full-time and stable part-time riders nationwide starting 2Q25. Despite JD’s strategic implementation on zero commission and full social security coverage, we opine that this will have a limited impact on the company on competitive landscape and cost level, on the back of Meituan’s dominant market share, extensive restaurant coverage and 1P rider network scale advantages. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Moody's Ratings announces completion of a periodic review of ratings o...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Alibaba Group Holding Limited and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 26 February 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in...
- Jin Yoon
BABA FY3Q25 Results: Capex to Meaningfully Increase Over the Next Thre...
What’s new: Alibaba’s reported FY3Q25 results that were above consensus and our expectations. CMR growth could continue to be supported by improvement in take rates, while AI-related cloud revs could remain resilient. The investments in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years could exceed what the company has spent over the past decade. We up our PT from US$100 to US$155 on improving outlook coupled with multiples rerating related to AI. Our updated PT of US$155 implies FY25E P/E o...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Alibaba Group (9988 HK): 3QFY25: CMR beat; all-in AI; capex in next th...
Alibaba’s 3QFY25 results surpassed expectations. Revenue grew 8% yoy to Rmb280.2b, in line with the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb51.1b, up 6% yoy, beating our and consensus forecasts, with net margin of 18.2%. CMR revenue growth of 9% yoy came in above expectations, propelled by the introduction of service fees, a take rate improvement and the national subsidies programme. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$150.00 (US$150.00).
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Ming San Soong
- Stevanus Juanda
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, February 21, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales rebound wow but remain low due to wait-and-see sentiment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Renewable Energy: Solar energy equipment: Policy-driven installation rush to support prices; milder module shipment growth in 2025. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$120.90/Target: HK$150.00): 3QFY25: CMR beat; all-in AI; capex in next three years to exceed that of the past decade. Lenovo Group (992 HK/BUY/HK...
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
GFPT GFPT
7153 KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED
INRI INARI AMERTRON BHD
SCGB SUNWAY CONSTRUCTION GROUP BH
AMM AMMB HOLDINGS BHD
09999 NETEASE INC
OXMU PRIME US REIT
OR PTT OIL AND RETAIL BUSINESS PUBLIC CO LIMITED
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Friday, February 21, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China auto sales rebounded in the seventh week of 2025, but remained low compared with the previous month due to consumers’ wait-and-see sentiment amid a price war and the transitional period of product upgrade. Zeekr’s acquisition of Lynk & Co strengthens Geely’s premium EV strategy. GWM has unveiled a strategy for affordable smart driving solutions. DeepSeek is gaining traction among automakers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay S...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Potential implications of de minimis tax exemption.
On 5 February, the USPS temporarily suspended the receipt of parcels from mainland China and Hong Kong. However, on 7 February, Trump signed an order delaying the cancellation of the de minimis trade exemption. We think PDD’s valuation will be partially overshadowed by the potential tariff pressures on Temu but supported by ongoing strategic mitigation efforts. As such, we believe that the uncertainties in policy changes will remain as the key concern throughout 2025.
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Growth potential and AI development trends following e...
Amid geopolitical uncertainties, the emergence of DeepSeek models have ignited a major AI industry shake-up, garnered investor attention and drawn wide developer interest in the Chinese AI industry as it lowers the technical and financial barriers in deploying LLM. An increasing number of global hyperscalers and application companies have facilitated the deployment of DeepSeek and Qwen models, further expanding their accessibility and adoption. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Alibaba Cloud Announced the Latest AI Models, Tools and Infrastructure...
EQS Newswire / 21/01/2025 / 04:59 CET/CEST JAKARTA, INDONESIA - - 21 January 2025 - Alibaba Cloud, the digital technology and intelligence backbone of Alibaba Group, has unveiled an expanded suite of large language models and AI development tools, upgraded infrastructure offerings, and new support programs for global developers at its annual developer summit today. These advancements aim to empower developers worldwide to build innovative AI applications more cost-effectively and drive a thriving global generative AI community. "Alibaba Cloud is committed to delivering real value to glo...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: 1H25 outlook shaped by implications of fiscal stimuli ...
We saw largely in-line top-line growth across companies in 3Q24, mainly pressured by a lukewarm macro environment, but with earnings beat thanks to enhanced efficiency from AI integration. Alongside pending visibility on further domestic supportive policies, we believe the key 2025 highlights are: a) re-acceleration of e-commerce GMV growth, b) potential upside in ad take rate monetisation, c) rejuvenation of online games grossing, and d) sustained travel enthusiasm. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
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