reports
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls
In August, the HSI and MSCI China Index hit their ytd highs, posting gains of 1.2% mom and 4.2% mom respectively, supported by dovish remarks from Fed Chair J. Powell at Jackson Hole. Looking ahead, we expect some consolidation as most of the positives have been priced in and are biased to SELL. We add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, while initiating SELL calls on Li Auto and OOIL. We take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME.
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
02161 JBM (HEALTHCARE) LTD
02015 LI AUTO INC
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: AI -- Accelerating AI+cloud hyperscaler growth; AI age...
We expect the emergence of AI agents and AI applications to continue fuelling the surge in AI inference demand, driving the acceleration of hyperscaler revenue growth, and we forecast revenue growth reaccelerating in 2H25-2026. The sustained dominance of super-apps in commerce, coupled with the swift rise of cost-efficient AI models, creates a strong catalyst for adoption and future global expansion. We upgrade the internet sector to OVERWEIGHT and are OVERWEIGHT the AI segment.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
ADSK AUTODESK INC.
HPQ MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
OKTA HP INC.
CRWD OKTA INC. CLASS A
DELL CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
1506075D DELL TECHNOLOGIES INC CLASS C
09988 DELL INTERNATIONAL LLC / EMC
MRVL ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
MARVELL TECHNOLOGY INC
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: AI -- Accelerating AI+cloud hyperscaler growth; AI age...
We expect the emergence of AI agents and AI applications to continue fuelling the surge in AI inference demand, driving the acceleration of hyperscaler revenue growth, and we forecast revenue growth reaccelerating in 2H25-2026. The sustained dominance of super-apps in commerce, coupled with the swift rise of cost-efficient AI models, creates a strong catalyst for adoption and future global expansion. We upgrade the internet sector to OVERWEIGHT and are OVERWEIGHT the AI segment. WHAT’S NEW Ev...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Strong top-line growth and margins further hurt in 2H2...
China’s internet companies reported intact 2Q25 top-line with mixed earnings results. The key focuses are on the latest quick commerce war and AI cloud and agent development. In 2Q25, we saw meaningful AI monetisation visibility contributing to incremental top-line growth, and expect this momentum to continue into 2H25. On the profitability front, margins will remain under pressure from heightened investments to fend off the intensifying competition in on-demand delivery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Alibaba Group (9988 HK): 1QFY26: Better-than-expected CMR and cloud re...
Alibaba reported strong 1QFY26 results. Revenue grew 2% yoy to Rmb247.7b, in line with the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb33.5b, down 18% yoy, in line with our forecast, with net margin of 14.8%, due to its investment in Taobao Instant Commerce. In the coming quarters, management expects to see: a) solid CMR growth as the company leverages on the Rmb30t addressable market, and b) strong cloud growth fuelled by AIrelated demand. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$170.00 ...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Gigi Cheuk
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Monday, September 1, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI August's manufacturing PMI edged up slightly to 49.4 (+0.1pt mom), while non-manufacturing PMI improved modestly to 50.3 (+0.2pt mom). However, construction PMI fell to 49.1 (-1.5pt mom), below the expansion threshold for the first time since January. With moderating decline in new orders and new export orders, PMI for large-sized enterprise (50.8, +0.5pt mom) and small-sized enterprise (46.6, +0.2pt mom) both improved. Overall, a mixed bag. Results Alibaba Group...
0939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS H
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
600019 BAOSHAN IRON & STEEL CO. LTD. CLASS A
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
709 GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
002050 CH ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (002050 CH)
2050 HK ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (2050 HK)
- Jin Yoon
BABA FY1Q26 Results: Continued Market Share Gains in both Cloud and Qu...
What’s new: Alibaba’s reported FY1Q26 results that were below consensus and our expectations. BABA could continue to gain market share in both cloud and quick commerce segments. Non-GAAP EBITA could see further margin pressure in the Sep Quarter partly due to investments in quick commerce. We maintain our PT at USD155. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Ming San Soong
- Thailand Research Team
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, September 1, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$115.70/Target: HK$170.00): 1QFY26: Better-than-expected CMR and cloud revenue growth; encouraging quick commerce outlook. BYD Company (1211 HK/SELL/HK$114.40/Target: HK$90.00): 2Q25: Earnings down over 30% yoy/qoq, missing estimates on margins. Downgrade from BUY to SELL. Cut target price from HK$142.00 to HK$90.00. BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$41.18/Target: HK$51.80): 1H25: Margin misses due to product mix shift; growth story remains unchange...
0939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS H
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
002050 CH ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (002050 CH)
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls
In July, the HSI and MSCI China index extended their growths, rising 2.9% mom and 4.5% mom respectively to reach their peak on 24 July before pulling pack in the latest week, as investors tend to take profit after the Politburo announcement. With another 90-day tariff delay from the US, we maintain a positive outlook for leading domestic stocks in healthcare and IT. New additions to our BUY list are JBM Healthcare and Lenovo. We take profit on CATL, Han’s Laser, KE Holdings and Longfor.
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
TME TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
02161 JBM (HEALTHCARE) LTD
1698 HK TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: WAIC -- Battlefield of AI applications and agents to r...
WAIC 2025 was held in Shanghai on 26-28 July under the theme "Intelligent Horizons, Shared Future". The focus of WAIC this year shifted from LLM to the next frontier – AI applications and AI agents. As AI capabilities extend from the cloud to edge devices, a transformative evolution in human-AI interaction is underway, characterised by more tangible, embodied forms and empathetic voice interfaces. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Strategy: Alpha Picks -- July Conviction Calls
June’s HSI and MSCI China Index rose 3.4% mom and 4.0% mom respectively, despite the pullback due to the Middle East tensions. July may see increased volatility as the US looks to bring the tariff negotiations to a close. At this juncture, we continue to favour domestic policy beneficiaries and sector leaders. New additions to our BUY list are CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and Tencent Music Entertainment. We take profit on Prudential.
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
TME TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
1698 HK TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP
3750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY (3750 HK)
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Greater China Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China 2H25 Market Strategy: A Big Beautiful Deal?
Trade deal in focus. Notwithstanding the 90-day truce on tariff escalation, it is still a 50/50 if there will be a “Big Beautiful Deal” between the US and China. The US is steadfast in wanting to cap China’s growth and restricting her access to the latest technology, while China is making a firm stand on its economic rights. We expect that higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unavoidable, likely closer to the 60% mark, if Trump were to be seen making a credible move to onshore production in ...
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
02161 JBM (HEALTHCARE) LTD
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
1698 HK TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP
3750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY (3750 HK)
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: 618 Festival – Evolving consumer trends and continued ...
The national subsidies programme continued to reinforce the consumption trend of “value-based substitution” during the 618 festival. While the share of online vs offline spending remained stable, emerging channels are creating new growth opportunities. We believe the consumption momentum will be shaped by: a) impact from the temporary suspension of the national subsidies programme in five provinces, and b) changes in the food delivery competitive landscape. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: JD’s new initiative in on-demand delivery is reshaping...
Market concerns persist over the viability of JD’s entry into the food delivery space and the implications of the increasingly competitive landscape. In response to the heightened rivalry, food delivery companies have ramped up their investment, weighing on near-term profitability. By leveraging high-frequency food delivery scenarios to channel traffic toward e-commerce categories, JD and Alibaba have effectively enhanced conversion efficiency during the 618 campaign. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Calls
The HSI and MSCI China index rebounded 5.3% mom and 3.5% mom respectively in May, after China and the US agreed on a 90-day tariff truce. Nonetheless, geopolitical uncertainties and tariff war risks remain. Hence, we continue to favour domestic policy beneficiaries and defensive sectors that have been gaining traction in recent weeks. New additions to our BUY list are Prudential and Sino Biopharm, and we take profit on SHKP and Trip.com.
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
PRU PRUDENTIAL PLC
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
- Jin Yoon
BABA FY4Q25 Results: Continued Investments in Core Businesses
What’s new: Alibaba’s reported FY4Q25 top-line results that were below consensus and our expectations. CMR growth could continue to be supported by take rate improvement, while Cloud could further accelerate partly driven by AI-related products revs. Margins could be adversely impacted due to continued investments in core businesses. We maintain our PT at USD155. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Alibaba Group (9988 HK): 4QFY25: Slight earnings miss; CMR delivers be...
Alibaba’s 4QFY25 earnings slightly missed expectations. Revenue grew 7% yoy to Rmb236.5b, in line with the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit rose 22% yoy to Rmb29.8b, missing consensus forecasts, with net margin of 12.6%. CMR revenue growth of 12% yoy exceeded expectations, propelled by the introduction of service fees, take rate improvement and the national subsidies programme. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$165.00 (US$165.00).
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Greater China Research Team
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Sunny Chen
Greater China Daily: Friday, May 16, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s PV insurance registrations rose 0.5% yoy, 26.5% mom and 5% wow in the 19th week of 2025, with PEV market share increasing to 50.2%. Geely’s Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy saw strong sales growth driven by new model launches, aggressive pricing, tech upgrades, and robust export expansion. We lift Geely’s 2025 net profit forecast by 24%, given its upbeat 1Q25 earnings. Maintain BUY and raise target price to HK$31.00 Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Ge...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Lester Siew
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Ming San Soong
- Philip Wong
- Sunny Chen
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, May 16, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PEV sales edged up wow. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Healthcare: The rising robotic surgical system market in China. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$128.90/Target: HK$165.00): 4QFY25: Slight earnings miss; CMR delivers better-than-expected double-digit growth. Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$19.58/Target: HK$31.00): 1Q25: Earnings beat on forex gain and associate profit. Maintain BUY. Raise target price to HK$31...
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
CENTEL CENTRAL PLAZA HOTEL
AOT AIRPORTS OF THAILAND PUBLIC CO. LTD.
SPOST SINGAPORE POST LTD
DLG DIALOG GROUP BHD
DBB DUOPHARMA BIOTECH BHD
09999 NETEASE INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
STECON STECON GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
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