In this quarterly strategy report, we look to evaluate where we are with regards the bull market conditions, and where those indicators might be headed, factoring in the downside risks, from Trump tariffs and the US economy, BoJ actions, Japanese earnings and valuations.
The ARC team has announced ARC-AGI-2 and published initial benchmarking results, after ARC-AGI-1 got saturated by o3. The race to AGI is reset. Fascinating. For what all investors need to understand about the most important benchmark of the industry, summarized on a single slide, see the attached article.
Nvidia’s updated GPU roadmap provided some good visibility on how the macro-architecture of GPUs will evolve until 2027. To see the implications for key players supplying the chips’ bill of material, summarized on a single slide, see the article attached.
Seeing great opportunities in AI development, major China cloud hyperscalers are significantly lifting their AI investment in 2025. With the launch of Manus, we are more optimistic about the accelerating monetisation capabilities of AI agents and applications through API integration and tool utilisation, which benefit cloud hyperscalers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
CoreWeave adopted an unusual accounting approach in the S-1 they recently filed: accounting for infrastructure depreciation in OPEX, as “IT infrastructure costs”. This presents the benefit of boasting a Software-like gross margin (obviously, cloud without paying for hardware is like software…), but also the inconvenient of potentially misleading investors about the company’s ability to reach profitability
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