reports
- Chris Hoare
Sarana Menara Nusantara (Buy, IDR 1,500, +165%) Q1 25 Quick Take: Slo...
TOWR reported on Friday evening. Tower revenue growth slowed and we expect this to continue over the near term as a result of consolidation. To some extent, this will be offset by growing contribution from FTTT and FTTH businesses as telcos expand into the home broadband and into rural Indonesia.
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 1Q25: EBITDA Stable At -0.8% qoq
In 1Q25, the combined EBITDA of Indonesia’s big telcos dropped 6% yoy, but was stable qoq. Combined 1Q25 NPAT was also slightly lower (2% yoy). Among the big three telcos, ISAT and Telkomsel (majority owned by TLKM) gained market share in 1Q25 (based on EBITDA) vs 4Q24. We are monitoring TLKM’s upcoming AGM (27 May) as we expect a potential dividend yield of around 7% (assuming an 80% payout). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the telecommunications sector with ISAT as our top pick.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 4Q24: NPAT Down Slightly By 2% yoy
Big Telcos’ 4Q24 EBITDA was roughly stable (-0.2%) qoq, but declined slightly by 4% yoy Meanwhile, combined 4Q24 net profit fell slightly by 2% yoy, but rose 11% qoq. During 4Q24, EXCL slightly increased its market share (based on EBITDA) among the top three telcos. We downgrade the telecommunications sector to MARKET WEIGHT from OVERWEIGHT as we expect TLKM, the parent company of Telkomsel (market leader), to book only a slightly moderate top-line growth of 2% yoy in 2025. Our top pick is ISAT.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Sunny Chen
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, April 25, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb12.72/Target: Rmb17.80) 2024: Satisfactory results; expects strong recovery in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb50.96/Target: Rmb83.00) 4Q24: Earnings up 38.5% yoy, in line. Maintain BUY with target price unchanged at Rmb83.00. TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$9.36/Target: US$14.00) 4QFY25: Earnings miss amid ramped-up investments in AI-powered learning. INDONESIA Sector Telecommun...
IZZ TAL EDUCATION GROUP SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ISAT INDOSAT
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
TMB TMB BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BH BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
TCAP THANACHART CAPITAL PCL
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
KTB KONTOOR BRANDS
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Friday, April 25, 2025
Telecommunications: 4Q24: NPAT down slightly by 2% yoy. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,475/Target: Rp10,500): 1Q25: Net profit grows 9.8% yoy on the back of NIM expansion. TRADERS’ CORNER Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ): Technical BUY Indosat (ISAT IJ): Technical BUY
- Chris Hoare
Sarana Menara Nusantara (Buy, IDR 1,500, +156%) Q4 24 Quick Take: Supp...
Numbers were decent off its higher growth adjacent businesses where non-Tower contribution now stands at 33% of sales. While near-term tower headwind is anticipated now that the merger between XL and Smartfren is approved, TOWR’s exposure to FTTT and FTTH should act as support as telcos expand into the home broadband and into rural Indonesia.
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – Average Data Traffic During Christmas/New Year 20...
EXCL’s holiday data traffic increased 19% vs normal days, higher than ISAT’s (more than 10% on 1 Jan 25). We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the telecommunications sector in view of factors such as: a) rising data traffic, b) relatively resilient demand for telco services, and c) potential industry consolidation which could support data monetisation in the long term. Our top picks are EXCL (BUY/Target: Rp3,200) and ISAT (BUY/Target: Rp3,100).
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Chris Hoare
Protelindo (Buy, TP: IDR1,500, +88%) Q3 24 Quick Take: Faster topline ...
Protelindo saw revenue and EBITDA trends accelerate this quarter helped by the IBST consolidation. As a result, revenue YTD are now trending above the 4-6% guidance. There was some slowdown in FTTT this quarter but growth remained robust.
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Malaysia Research Team
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Paula Ruth
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, October 07, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Metals And Mining Gold: Rally takes a breather; downside cushioned by escalating geopolitical tensions. INDONESIA Update Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ/HOLD/Rp850/Target: Rp930) 2Q24: Revenue from non-tower business jumps 30% yoy. Downgrade to HOLD. MALAYSIA Strategy Budget 2025 Preview: Building Sustainable Growth While Budget 2025 is seen as market-neutral, it is suppor...
1295 PUBLIC BANK BHD
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PLC
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
INRI INARI AMERTRON BHD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
CSSC CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
TSVT 2SEVENTY BIO INC
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
IOIPG IOI PROPERTIES GROUP BHD
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
1787 SHANDONG GOLD SMELTING CO LTD
- Paula Ruth
Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ) - 2Q24: Revenue From Non-tower Busin...
TOWR recorded 1H24 EBITDA of Rp5.1t, in line with our and consensus estimates. However, its 1H24 NPAT of Rp1.6t was slightly below our and consensus expectations. Last July, iForte completed the acquisition of 90.1% of IBST with acquisition value of Rp3.4t. We are monitoring for more clarity regarding TOWR’s rights issue plan (EGM scheduled on 25 Oct 24) and potential merger between FREN and EXCL. Downgrade to HOLD with a target price of Rp930, due to valuation.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – Telcos’ Mobile Data Revenue Could Grow 7% yoy
We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the telecommunications sector in view of several factors: a) telcos’ 2024/25 mobile data revenue could grow 8%/7% yoy, b) digital channels (penetration ranging from 29% to 55%) could help improve ARPU, c) telcos’ EBITDA growth could reach 8% yoy in 2024 and 4% yoy in 2025, and d) attractive valuation with many telcos trading at -1SD EV/EBITDA. Our top pick is EXCL (BUY/Target: Rp2,900).
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Chris Hoare
Protelindo (Buy, TP: IDR1,500, +75%) Q2 24 Quick Take: Faster topline...
Protelindo maintained growth at the upper bound of its 4-6% guidance again as improved FTTT performance helped offset the lower Tower revenue. Margins were lower YoY, but justifiably so as non-Tower contribution rose to 34% versus 26% last year.
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: Trailing JCI’s Strong Showing In Aug 24
The JCI rallied strongly in Aug 24, rising 10.7%. 5.0% of the return was due to the rupiah appreciation. The strong rally caused our portfolio to underperform despite our portfolio delivering a 7.6% increase. Over the past 10 years, the return of the JCI in September averaged -1.62%. Considering the 10.7% return of the JCI in Aug 24, it might be wise to be slightly defensive in Sep 24. Thus, add ICBP and TOWR. Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR.
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 2Q24: 11% yoy Growth In Core Profit
The combined EBITDA of TLKM, ISAT and EXCL grew 5% yoy in 2Q24. ARPU of ISAT and EXCL rose 5% yoy and 6% yoy respectively, while the ARPU of TLKM’s subsidiary for the cellular business (Telkomsel) declined 10% yoy. During 2Q24, ISAT gained a little market share (based on EBITDA) among the top three telcos, partly because it managed to expand its EBITDA margin slightly (2Q24: 49% vs 1Q24: 47%). Maintain OVERWEIGHT with EXCL as our top pick.
- Hendri Effendi
- Paula Ruth
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