reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
OpenAI should account for 17% of expectations for Nvidia 2027 datacent...
Total capex required to meet OpenAI’s needs could reach ~$130bn by 2027, roughly equal to what consensus forecasts, on average, for each of the top four hyperscalers over the same horizon. In this note, we estimate how much of Nvidia’s datacenter revenue expectations this represents.
- Pelham Smithers
PSA Media & Entertainment: Are We at Peak Japan Soft Power? Considerin...
Switch 2, Hello Kitty and Demon Slayer have underlined the success of Japan’s global pop culture influence. In this review, Pelham Smithers discusses whether 2025 will be the peak, or if there more to come. In light of the capital limitations faced by Japanese game developers evident at TGS2025, Pelham thinks further consolidation is likely and suggests three likely scenarios.
NEH NETEASE INC. SPONSORED ADR
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
9697 CAPCOM CO. LTD.
9684 SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
9468 KADOKAWA CORPORATION
9766 KONAMI HOLDINGS CORP
7974 NINTENDO CO. LTD.
8136 SANRIO COMPANY LTD.
6758 SONY CORPORATION
9602 TOHO CO. LTD.
3765 GUNGHO ONLINE ENTERTAINMENT INC.
EA ELECTRONIC ARTS INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
6460 JP SEGA SAMMY
GRVY GRAVITY CO. LTD. ADS
78320 BANDAI NAMCO
36350 KOEI TECMO
- Antoine Legault
- Matthew Bryson
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
PSTG PURE STORAGE INC. CLASS A
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
NTAP NETAPP INC.
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
AXTI AXT INC.
2330 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
2303 UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
SMCI SUPER MICRO COMPUTER
STX INC.
GFS SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PLC
GLOBALFOUNDRIES INC
- Wedbush Research
WDC WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION
TTWO TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE INC.
TRIP TRIPADVISOR INC.
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
RARE ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC.
PSTG PURE STORAGE INC. CLASS A
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
NTAP NETAPP INC.
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
MELI MERCADOLIBRE INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
EXPE EXPEDIA GROUP INC.
ETSY ETSY INC.
EBAY EBAY INC.
BIIB BIOGEN INC.
AXTI AXT INC.
7974 NINTENDO CO. LTD.
2330 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
2303 UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP.
EA ELECTRONIC ARTS INC.
ARGX ARGENX ADS
SE SEA ADS
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
BKNG BOOKING HOLDINGS INC.
LYFT LYFT
PINS PINTEREST INC. CLASS A
UBER UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC.
CHWY CHEWY INC. CLASS A
SMCI SUPER MICRO COMPUTER
DASH INC.
ABNB DOORDASH
STX AIRBNB INC. CLASS A
GFS SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PLC
YOU GLOBALFOUNDRIES INC
MLTX CLEAR SECURE INC
RUM MOONLAKE IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS
EMBRAC B RUMBLE INC
CART EMBRACER GROUP AB
MAPLEBEAR INC.
- Antoine Legault
- Matthew Bryson
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
PSTG PURE STORAGE INC. CLASS A
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
NTAP NETAPP INC.
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
AXTI AXT INC.
2330 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
2303 UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
SMCI SUPER MICRO COMPUTER
STX INC.
GFS SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PLC
GLOBALFOUNDRIES INC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The NSR AI datacenter economics cheat sheet
As we spend our days and many of our nights helping you understand what is going on in the world of AI infrastructure, we refine continuously our understanding of the cost of AI, combining our understanding of the economics of every step of the supply chain. We crystalized that in a digestible format today. Everything you need to know about a 1GW datacenter on a single slide.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Impact of Price caps on funding
Based on a leaked internal NTIA memo related to BEAD, it seems like the final proposals by the states may not be final and the NTIA may force them to make changes to their plans. We have analyzed all the proposals so far and estimate that Comcast, AT&T and Frontier may be most impacted by these rules. However, the overall impact isn’t material.
- Antoine Legault
- Matthew Bryson
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
PSTG PURE STORAGE INC. CLASS A
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
NTAP NETAPP INC.
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
AXTI AXT INC.
2330 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
2303 UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
SMCI SUPER MICRO COMPUTER
STX INC.
GFS SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PLC
GLOBALFOUNDRIES INC
- Gary Brode
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Another Major Update
We are almost in the home stretch of the BEAD proposal process. In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 48 states & territories. We also incorporate the revisions in some state proposals. Comcast and Brightspeed are at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber’s share of locations remained unchanged from our last update. Satellite and FWA together account for close to a third of the locations awarded.
- Antoine Legault
- Matthew Bryson
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
PSTG PURE STORAGE INC. CLASS A
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
NTAP NETAPP INC.
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
AXTI AXT INC.
2330 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
2303 UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
SMCI SUPER MICRO COMPUTER
STX INC.
GFS SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PLC
GLOBALFOUNDRIES INC
- Wedbush Research
CYBR CYBERARK SOFTWARE LTD.
BCRX BIOCRYST PHARMACEUTICALS INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
IDYA IDEAYA BIOSCIENCES
RVMD REVOLUTION MEDICINES
BDTX BLACK DIAMOND THERAPEUTICS
ORIC ORIC PHARMACEUTICALS
COGT COGENT BIOSCIENCES INC
PHVS PHARVARIS NV
NUVB NUVATION BIO INC (A)
CGEM CULLINAN ONCOLOGY INC
DAWN DAY ONE BIOPHARMACEUTICALS INC
TNGX TANGO THERAPEUTICS
ATXS INC
TYRA ASTRIA THERAPEUTICS INC
PEPG TYRA BIOSCIENCES INC
NUVL PEPGEN INC
BBOT NUVALENT INC
BRIDGEBIO ONCOLOGY THERAPEUTICS
- Anish Jog
- Daniel Ives
- Sam Brandeis
- Steven Wahrhaftig
- Antoine Legault
- Matthew Bryson
Daily Views on Tech Headlines
We would again point out that 1) price increases of this magnitude are well ahead of MU's implied guide last night and 2) that there is a very strong possibility that limited ability to add capacity in the intermediate term creates a longer term positive cycle for memory (for the first time since 2
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
PSTG PURE STORAGE INC. CLASS A
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
NTAP NETAPP INC.
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
AXTI AXT INC.
2330 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
2303 UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
SMCI SUPER MICRO COMPUTER
STX INC.
GFS SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PLC
GLOBALFOUNDRIES INC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Oracle: What will life after giant RPOs look like?
Oracle entered a 4.5GW, $300bn, 5-year contract with OpenAI, starting 2027. In our note yesterday, we showed what we know of the deal suggests balanced and straightforward economics, over the life of the contract. Today we extend the analysis: GPUs aren’t scrapped after 5 years, and Oracle may in reality, after these contracts, boost profitability, monetizing fully depreciated assets, much like TSMC at the lagging edge.
- Antoine Legault
- Matthew Bryson
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
PSTG PURE STORAGE INC. CLASS A
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
NTAP NETAPP INC.
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
AXTI AXT INC.
2330 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
2303 UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
SMCI SUPER MICRO COMPUTER
STX INC.
GFS SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PLC
GLOBALFOUNDRIES INC
- Anish Jog
- Daniel Ives
- Matthew Weiss
- Sam Brandeis
- Scott Devitt
- Steven Wahrhaftig
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Oracle & OpenAI: All the economics of the $300bn deal, on a single sli...
Over the weekend we worked through the numbers to estimate the economics of Oracle’s $300bn contract with OpenAI. We have strong visibility on costs, supported by our long-standing work on AI datacenter economics, refined with players in every part of the supply chain, and on the ramp trajectory, informed by RPO maturity and OpenAI’s business plan. This allows us to estimate gross margins, FCF and IRR with a high degree of confidence.
- Antoine Legault
- Matthew Bryson
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
PSTG PURE STORAGE INC. CLASS A
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
NTAP NETAPP INC.
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
AXTI AXT INC.
2330 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
2303 UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
SMCI SUPER MICRO COMPUTER
STX INC.
GFS SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PLC
GLOBALFOUNDRIES INC
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