Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Microsoft Corporation and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 25 September 2024 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the co...
AT&T is selling their 70% stake to TPG in a non-contingent transaction. The deal appears to value DTV at around 4x 2025 EBITDA (this is the multiple we have always used). When we saw this release, we thought it meant the DTV / Dish deal was off, but that deal was announced moments ago. We provide quick thoughts on the AT&T sale to TPG here, and will follow up on the Dish piece shortly.
We are pushing up our mid-term TM$ estimates on PayPal. Whilst remaining very constructive on Fastlane as a key product driver (see Faster Lane, bigger destination, Aug 20th), we are incorporating stronger debit adoption into estimates, modelling in more detail the direct and flywheel effects of PayPal Everywhere (and indirectly Venmo) and looking in more detail at how CAC/LTV can make sense (push back has been on the 5% cash back incentive and the merit/effectiveness of reward schemes).
Bloomberg and the WSJ both reported this afternoon that the companies are close to a deal. They claim an announcement could come by Monday. The only new data points that we picked up were that DTV is the acquirer, and AT&T and TPG will remain investors (and presumably remain in control). In addition, the stories claim that Sling will be part of the sale.
We have updated our Verizon and AT&T models following commentary at recent conferences, with the changes being so few that we’ve combined the updates into one note. Verizon phone and broadband adds look set to beat consensus modestly in 3Q, with a bigger beat FCF. AT&T phone adds should beat handily, but their fiber adds will miss on the work stoppage in the Southeast; FCF will also miss, but this is a timing issue.
While investors contemplate the financial implications and regulatory prospects of a potential DISH/DirecTV deal, one generally overlooked element of the transaction is the role the 12 GHz band could play in the value creation through the deal. In this note we analyze that potential which could be more disruptive to the market than generally understood; stated differently, the value of the deal could be more about spectrum than synergy.
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