In this report we evaluate the single-A TMT space. We argue that the notes of Wolters Kluwer and Relx look attractive. We prefer to avoid the notes of Proximus until we get further clarity about competitive dynamics in Belgium, following the expected entry of Digi. ASML and SAP, where spreads have widened a little since April 2024, could appeal to some investors. In this note we provide a summary of our general findings, followed by company descriptions.
As momentum has become less adverse than over the past five years, interest rates have started to fall and valuations have (historically low), this should have prodded small and mid cap companies back to their old outperformance. The European elections in France and the ensuing decision to dissolve the French National Assembly have changed risk perceptions and erased YTD gains. In our new ODDO BHF European mid cap list for H2 2024, France is underweighted with a mix of defensive and s...
Le momentum devenu moins défavorable qu’au cours des 5 derniers exercices, l’amorce de baisse des taux, et les valorisations (historiquement basses) auraient dû aider les small&Midcaps à retrouver leur surperformance. Les Elections européennes suivies de la dissolution de l’Assemblée nationale en France ont changé la perception du risque et gommé les gains YTD. Notre nouvelle liste ODDO BHF European Midcaps pour le S2 2024 se trouve sous-pondérée sur la France et propose un mix entre ...
>Unprecedented revision of 25% - Ericsson yesterday published its annual Ericsson Mobility report, an industry benchmark for mobile network traffic forecasts. Traffic forecasts are crucial in terms of the investment outlook for the telecoms sector.What is surprising is that Ericsson cut its global mobile traffic forecast by close to 25% for 2029 (from 403 EB/m to 313 EB/m, or from 56 to 42 GB/m per smartphone user). Ericsson does not communicate much on this revi...
ASR: CMD - Cumulative SBB at €525m for 2024-26, Strong Pension buy-out outlook. Econocom: Possible interest in part of Atos IT infra after Onepoint withdraws. Proximus: Proximus Opal reportedly looking for a Nasdaq listing in 24-36 months. Randstad: 2Q24F results due 23 July - no recovery yet, conversion under pressure. Xior Student Housing: €80m CIK to buy 2 assets at a 8.4% yield
This morning, Xior announced an Contribution in Kind (CiK) agreement to acquire two PBSA assets in Lisbon and Kraków. Together for a total of 670 units/1,053 beds and an average gross investment yield of 8.41%. These acquisitions are realised entirely by CiK against the issue of new shares at an issue price of EUR 29.02. The total contribution value is approx. 80 MEUR, which strengthens Xior's equity and reduces the LTV by 1,1%. We like this CiK deal as it combines growth with LTV reduction. The...
>Conclusion: CMD: they deliver what they promised, OCG, SBB and Solvency, and COR targets all in line with our expectations - At the CMD a.s.r. delivered what they promised, a good solid statement. The updated OCG, SBB and Solvency ratio, and COR targets all in line with our expectations. It also shows that a.s.r. even incl. the € 500m SBB until end 2026 will have about 1.2bn excess capital end 2026 giving them room for growth opportunities, and or additional capital ...
>Une révision inédite de 25% - Ericsson a publié hier son rapport annuel « Ericsson Mobility report», une référence de l’industrie pour les prévisions de trafic sur réseau mobile. Les prévisions de trafic sont déterminantes pour les prévisions d’investissements dans les télécoms.La surprise est qu’Ericsson coupe de près de 25% à la baisse ses prévisions de trafic mobile mondial pour 2029 (de 403 ExaBytes/mois à 313 EB/mois, soit de 56 à 42 GB/mois par utilisateur...
Alfen: Profit warning. ASR: CMD expectations, capital accumulation substantial in 2025-26. Barco: Co-CEO Charles Beauduin steps down. Belgian telecoms: Orange Belgium prepares for battle ahead of Digi arrival. D'Ieteren: PHE day feedback, ambition to double in size. Exor: Increases its stake in Philips to 17.51% Gimv: Investing in Infrastructure, optional dividend terms. Just Eat Takeaway.com: DoorDash reportedly interested in Deliveroo. SBM Offshore: Preparating for two new hull...
Peu de secteurs polarisent autant que le luxe automobile sportif. A la pointe de l’innovation technologique et artistique pour les uns, il est le reflet d’inégalités excessives pour les autres. Nous estimons que le secteur a un rôle prépondérant à jouer sur l’atténuation du changement climatique, mais aussi l’économie circulaire ou la transition juste. Considérant les impacts, risques et opportunités matériels, nous plaçons Ferrari en Best-in-Class ESG, Porsche en Neutre ESG, et Aston...
Few sectors are as polarising as luxury sports cars. At the cutting edge of technological and artistic innovation for some, they reflect excessive inequality for others. We believe the sector has a key role to play in climate change mitigation, as well as in the circular economy and just transition. Taking into account material impacts, risks and opportunities, we see Ferrari as ESG Best-in-Class, Porsche as ESG Neutral and Aston-Martin Lagonda as ESG Not Recommended. - ...
>Retail REITs broadly the best positioned - The announcement of the dissolution of parliament created a stock market shock or French real estate stocks leading to a negative performance of 10.6% since 7 June vs -4.2% for our other real estate stocks, notably in line with the increase in the 10-year OAT yield (c.+5bp) and its difference with the German 10-year yield (+c.23bp).The outcome of the legislative elections is still uncertain. Based on the sc...
>Les foncières de commerce globalement les mieux positionnées - L’annonce de la dissolution de l’Assemblée Nationale a créé un choc boursier sur les valeurs immobilières françaises engendrant une performance négative de 10.6% depuis le 7 juin vs -4.2% sur nos autres valeurs immobilières, en ligne notamment avec la hausse du rendement de l’OAT 10 ans (+c.+5 pb) et son écartement avec le 10 ans allemand (+c. 23 pb).L’issue des élections législatives est encore inc...
Dutch real estate companies showed signs of cautious optimism at the recent Provada conference, with logistics and retail favoured. Healthcare shows some positive signs, with limited devaluations. The Dutch government's potential reduction of the Real Estate Transfer Tax and new REIT regime could benefit listed real estate companies active in the country. - >Cautious optimism as market shows signs of improvement - Last week the annual Dutch real estate conference, Prov...
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