reports
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos - Takeaways from Meetings with the Japanese Telcos + R...
We met with all 3 of the incumbent Japanese Telcos & Rakuten in Tokyo this week. Every time we visit, we are reminded of how much better the telco industry is in Japan vs other DMs, as the MNOs continue to expand their scope of operations beyond traditional telco driving higher returns and growth.
- Chris Hoare
Rakuten (Reduce, TP: ¥400, -57%) Softer net additions to be expected ...
Today, Rakuten Mobile launched a new mobile plan aimed at seniors (65 years old and above). In addition, an update on its mobile subscribers figure reflected a slowdown in net additions, which was behind consensus and our forecasts for Q3. We share our thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Global Towers Digital Bridge to acquire JTower. Very brief thoughts a...
Digital Bridge has announced a tender offer for the shares of JTower, the leading Japanese Tower Company. Although the valuation is fairly low, we would not see that as bearish for Global Towers. Thoughts and implications below.
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos Q1 FY24 review: Softbank outperforming
Incumbents led a faster service revenue growth in Q1 driven by non-mobile, with Softbank ahead. Industry mobile growth kept steady but the continued divergence in mobile trend between NTT and peers appears to confirm the benefits of integrated financial services. Softbank was the notable share gainer this quarter (1.1% MSR gain sequentially), having grown its mobile ARPU for the first time since FY19.
- Chris Hoare
Rakuten (Reduce, TP: ¥400, -48%) Q2 24 Quick Take: Mixed, surprising ...
Despite beating on topline sparked by Fintech, overall profitability was still below expectations. While Mobile has seen improvements, pace of improvement remains too slow in our view to justify the share price. ARPU continues to lack traction.
- Chris Hoare
KDDI (Buy, TP: ¥6,600, +51%) Q1 24 Quick Take: Solid
KDDI reported after close today, with both topline and EBIT tracking slightly ahead of full year guidance. Enterprise continued to show good momentum and helped support the topline beat. With Lawson delisted since July, the deal is expected to be completed by September, as planned. Multi-brand mobile revenue continues to trend positively, with positive commentary around the transition from UQ mobile to AU brand.
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos Q4 FY23 review: Diverging mobile
Service revenue trends for the three incumbents were faster as mobile inflected, coupled with improvements in non-mobile. Meanwhile, the sector’s EBITDA grew strongly which was well flagged in Q3. Divergence in mobile trend appears to confirm the benefits of integrated financial services with mobile as NTT and peers diverged further; former extended its decline while peers accelerated to near 3% YoY.
- Pelham Smithers
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos From “rising tide” to “winner takes all” – Should you...
For several years, our thesis had been that a lack of meaningful impact by Rakuten would lift all 3 incumbents. However, the launch of integrated financial services products shifted this, and this has been confirmed we think by Q4 figures; Japan is now a “winner takes all” market, with SoftBank the winner.
A10 Networks Inc: 1 director
A director at A10 Networks Inc sold/sold after exercising options 3,296,047 shares at 15.400USD and the significance rating of the trade was 95/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directo...
- Chris Hoare
Rakuten (Reduce, TP: ¥400, -51%) Q1 24 Quick Take: Mobile still lacki...
Rakuten Mobile continues to lack traction, driving an overall disappointing set of figures. The company continues to guide towards breakeven in Mobile by year end, but has introduced a new way of looking at Mobile profitability, by focusing on losses excluding acquisition costs and including the impact on EC which we think paves the way for dropping this guidance later in the year.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Rakuten (Reduce, TP: ¥400, -47%) Not on track to hit breakeven targets
Rakuten has seen stronger customer growth recently. In this note, we analyse whether Rakuten is on track to hit its target 8-10m customers and ¥2,500-3,000 ARPU by year end, and what this means for Rakuten’s target EBITDA breakeven by Dec 2024.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Asia Telco Tour Feedback, Improving growth, ROCE and shareholder remun...
We ran our Asia Telco tour last week. This time we met 12 companies in 3 countries (Korea, Japan, Thailand). Telco share prices in all 3 of these countries have been pretty strong recently as telcos continue to benefit from generally positive themes: growth, return on capital and shareholder remuneration are all typically improving.
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos Takeaways from Meetings with the Japanese Telcos + Ra...
We met with all 3 of the incumbent Japanese Telcos & Rakuten in Tokyo this week. Every time we visit we are reminded of how much better the telco industry is in Japan vs other DMs and we continue to be of the view that Japanese incumbents are in a “Golden Age”; ARPU inflection is being held back a little we think by voice weakness post-Covid but is likely to come through over time. The integration of financial services though is a game changer and means SB is the likely medium term “winner” in t...
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos Q3 FY23 review: Gearing up for a strong Q4
Service revenue trend was softer on slower non-mobile this quarter. Collectively, mobile revenue trend (Consumer + Enterprise) maintained its second consecutive of growth and operators are implying a strong Q4. For instance, Softbank is expecting Consumer MSR to rebound this year (at flat YTD); NTT implying a strong Q4 EBIT on cost reductions and streamlining of non-core assets like Real Estate.
- Chris Hoare
- Pelham Smithers
PSA Market Strategy: How Japan Transformed from a Bear Market to a Bul...
In our 2010 Japan Perspective, written close to the nadir of the bear market, we discussed what was wrong with Japan, but also what it was starting to do right. Fourteen years on, the Nikkei 225 - though not yet Topix - has hit a new all-time high. This report looks at how Japan built on those things that were going right, while also starting to address what else needed to be done, and looks at whether more is needed to be done if the market rally is to continue from here.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
9433 KDDI CORPORATION
6954 FANUC CORPORATION
8001 ITOCHU CORPORATION
6752 PANASONIC CORPORATION
6971 KYOCERA CORPORATION
8031 MITSUI & CO. LTD
4183 MITSUI CHEMICALS INC.
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
6701 NEC CORP.
5401 NIPPON STEEL CORP.
4063 SHIN-ETSU CHEMICAL CO LTD
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
6201 TOYOTA INDUSTRIES CORP.
7203 TOYOTA MOTOR CORP.
7270 SUBARU CORP
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
BRK.A BERKSHIRE HATH-A
APPL APPLE INC - APPL - US
9810 NIPPON STEEL TRADING CORP
- Chris Hoare
Rakuten (Reduce, TP: ¥400, -45%) Why did the stock go up 16%? Is this...
Such a sharp rally in a stock that we are negative on impels us to question our thesis. In this short note we try to address the question of whether Rakuten is at a turning point, or, in other words: “Are we wrong to be negative”. Plus model update.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.