Energy Morning - 25 February 2025

DPS below guidance on lower oil prices

A good Q4 report

Energy Morning - 24 February 2025

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) released preliminary January production figures for the NCS, showing a 6.5% YOY decline, with overall production at 4.17mmboed on weaker gas output. Uncertainty remains over Kurdistan oil exports, with reports suggesting a potential March restart, although Turkey has yet to receive confirmation. In exploration, the NOD confirmed the Bounty Updip prospect as dry.

Renewable Weekly – 20 February 2025

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

January NCS production down YOY

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary January NCS figures showed liquids production of 1,990kboed (0.5% above its forecast) and soft gas production of 346mcm/d (2.6% below its estimate). Overall production was 4.17mmboed (1% below its forecast), down 2.8% MOM and 6.5% YOY. Company-wise, December production should be well known following the Q4 results for our NCS coverage.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics and discussion

This week, Aker BP reported solid Q4 results, with 2025 production guidance in line with our estimates and consensus, although 2025 capex was slightly above. Vår Energi reported softer Q4 results than expected but raised its quarterly dividend from USD270m to USD300m (~15% yield). However, we remain cautious on long-term dividend sustainability, given the expected decline in FCF from 2027e due to raised capex guidance. Meanwhile, BlueNord announced its first dividend of USD215m (~15% yield), sch...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Too early to buy the market recovery

Next up: adding more backlog on Mira

Weekly news, topics & discussion

Despite announcing pared-back renewables ambitions at its CMU this week, we still see a weak risk/reward for Equinor, and struggle to identify meaningful potential upside. In conjunction with the CMU, it confirmed maintained current production on Johan Sverdrup through 2025e. Given the field accounts for 50% of Aker BP's production, this week we raised our 2025–2026e production and EPS by 2%. Also, Panoro Energy reported strong Q4 production, in our view de-risking our 2025 production estimate o...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 02/07/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Appraisal drilling results at Alberta Llanos unlock full field development with horizontal wells - Following the discovery well, Arrow has drilled two new vertical wells at Alberta Llanos, effectively delineating the field. The AB-2 well at the far northern limit of the field encountered multiple hydrocarbon-bearing intervals with good reservoir characteristics but came i...

Panoro Energy (Buy, TP: NOK38.00) - Strong exit to 2024 de-risking 202...

Panoro Energy reported a solid Q4 trading update, with net production at 12.1kboed, slightly above our 11.7kboed estimate. With the operating issues related to the ESPs in Gabon resolved and the company producing 13kboed in November last year, we believe our 12.5kboed estimate for 2025 is de-risked. The ~25% YOY production growth in 2025e should raise FCF meaningfully, with yields averaging ~35% in 2025–2027e. We reiterate our BUY and NOK38 target price.

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Reaching 13 mbbl/d net production

• 4Q24 WI production was 12,052 bbl/d. While this is in line with our expectations, we note that gross production in Gabon has been stable at ~40 mmbl/d since November. This represents ~7 mbbl/d net to Panoro’s WI. Panoro’s corporate production has reached 13 mbbl/d in November. • There is potential to increase spot gross production in Gabon to 44 mbbl/d, which is 10% above the nameplate capacity, without any incremental capital expenditure. Incorporating maintenance, we assume a run rate of 38,...

Energy Morning - 6 February 2025

Cashing in twice

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again As discussed throughout the first half of January, we continue to believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared. We reiterated this in yesterday's pre-market ETF Pathfinder, also noting "we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved relatively quickly, and therefore we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity." Sure enough, bot...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.