Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Vår Energi reported Q1 results very much in line with expectations. The company also reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and maintained its dividend. Also, OKEA reported a solid Q1, with production and prices slightly above our estimates. While a technical goodwill impairment reduces its dividend basket for 2025, we view this as non-material, as we do not expect any dividends before 2027. Meanwhile, we are 5% below consensus on Q1e EBIT ahead of Equinor’s Q1 results on 30 April (07:00 CET), ...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 25/04/2025

Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: Reserves addition much larger than expected – YE24 2P reserves were independently estimated at 42.3 mmbbl (+7.6 mmbbl vs YE23, representing a Reserve Replacement Ration of 309%). This figure far exceeds our previous expectation of 34.5 mmbbl for YE24 2P reserves - an estimate that included a 4 mmbbl addition in 1H24 to counterbalance 2024 production. The higher than expected reserves addition is driven by robust reservoir performance in G...

Demand recovery continues to be delayed

LT balance sheet solution more difficult now

Solid NCS production in March

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for March showed liquids production of 1,972kboed (1.6% above its forecast) and gas production of 351mcm/d (0.4% above its forecast). Overall, production was 4.18mmboed (1.1% above its forecast), flat MOM, but down 4.9% YOY. Company-wise, the February production figures should be well known as most companies have already reported their production figures for Q1.

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Reserves addition much larger than expec...

• YE24 2P reserves were independently estimated at 42.3 mmbbl (+7.6 mmbbl vs YE23, representing a Reserve Replacement Ration of 309%). This figure far exceeds our previous expectation of 34.5 mmbbl for YE24 2P reserves - an estimate that included a 4 mmbbl addition in 1H24 to counterbalance 2024 production. • The higher than expected reserves addition is driven by robust reservoir performance in Gabon coupled with the conversion of contingent resources into 2P reserves in EG. • In Gabon, YE24 WI...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Energy Morning - 22 April 2025

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 18/04/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK47 per share: High production in Gabon – BW Energy reported gross production in Gabon of 39.3 mbbl/d. This equates to 6.9 mbbl/d net to Panoro’s 17.5% WI. IN OTHER NEWS ________________________________________ AMERICAS Galp Energia (GALP LI): 1Q25 update – 1Q25 production in Brazil was 104 mboe/d. Pantheon Resources (PNR LN): Disappointing well test results in Alaska – The Megrez-1 well fl...

Energy Morning - 15 April 2025

Stress testing

We have stress-tested our coverage universe at a USD60/bbl oil price, concluding that most names remain dependent on rising oil prices to warrant upside potential from current share prices. Moreover, unless oil prices move higher, we see increasing risk of cuts in shareholder distributions for Vår Energi and Equinor, while the risk appears lower for Aker BP. Overall, we remain cautious as macro risks remain tilted to the downside. We continue to prefer Aker BP as it screens best on valuation and...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor, Aker BP, and Vår Energi released their Q1 trading updates. Equinor’s realised liquids prices were broadly in line with consensus across all segments. Aker BP reported a modest production beat, 2% above consensus, with realised liquids and gas prices largely as expected. Vår Energi’s Q1 production was 2% below our estimate and consensus, while realised liquids prices met expectations and gas prices exceeded them by 4–11%.

Energy Morning - 10 April 2025

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published previews for most of our coverage universe. For Aker BP, we estimate solid Q1 production of 450kboed, with our EBITDA forecast 12% above consensus, ahead of the trading update on 7 April. For Vår Energi, we expect a slow start to the year, with Q1e production of 277kboed, leaving our EBITDA c7% below consensus, ahead of the trading update on 11 April. In other news, Johan Castberg reached first oil this week, with ramp-up expected through Q2 2025.

Panoro Energy (Buy, TP: NOK38.00) - Set for strong FCF growth

Ahead of the Q1 report, due at 07:00 CET on 21 May, we forecast net production of 12.7kboed (no reliable consensus). Due to a significant underlift and limited crude volumes sold in the quarter, we estimate EBITDA of USD-2m (no reliable consensus). After several years of missing production guidance and investor expectations, we believe meeting 2025 guidance of 11–13kboed (we forecast 11.6kboed), supported by strong FCF growth and attractive shareholder distributions, would warrant a re-rating of...

Crude Quarterly Q1'25: weaker oil market fundamentals

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 3 April

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on the harsh reality of USD70/bbl for our coverage. While investors appear to be positioning for lower oil prices, we believe consensus FCF estimates for NCS large caps remain overly aggressive. Meanwhile, DNO announced a discovery at the Kjøttkake prospect, north-west of Troll, adding ~NOK0.8/share (~4%) to DNO’s NAV and ~NOK1/share to Aker BP’s (