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Philip Burnett
  • Philip Burnett

AMT Model Update

This note covers changes to the model. We increased revenue, EBITDA and AFFO on updated guidance. We expect consensus to increase revenue and EBITDA but for AFFO estimates to remain where they were.

Philip Burnett
  • Philip Burnett

AMT: Quick thoughts following the 2Q25 call

This brief note covers thoughts on the drivers of the modestly lowered outlook for US organic growth this year, a further unpacking of the drivers of the changes to consolidated guidance, and updated thoughts on the impact of the USM-TMUS consolidation as well as risks from a potential EchoStar bankruptcy.

Philip Burnett
  • Philip Burnett

AMT 2Q25 Quick Take: Site rental revenue in-line; services strong

Site rental revenues were in-line with consensus, while services and data center revenues were strong. Revenue benefited from higher straight-line impacts and a lower drag from FX. Site rental EBITDA was weak on underperformance in Latam, but consolidated EBITDA was ahead on strength in services and data centers. AFFO missed on higher maintenance capex and a larger adjustment for unconsolidated affiliates. The company increased guidance primarily on benefits from FX.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Towers - A Consistent Approach to EFCF and Shareholder Remun...

Following a similar note we published on the EM Telco sector, we apply the same consistent approach to Equity FCF for Global EM Towers. We have preferred Telcos over Towers for some time, as the drivers of upside for the Telcos (consolidation and declining capital intensity) is a headwind for the Towers.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers Bull market continues – NSR GEM Top-10 June...

It was another very strong month for our picks as the EM Telco bull market continues. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be, and the market has now started to understand this. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.

Moody's Ratings affirms American Tower's Baa3 ratings, changes outlook...

Moody's Ratings (Moody's) today affirmed American Tower Corporation's (AMT or "the REIT") Baa3 senior unsecured rating, (P)Baa3 senior unsecured shelf rating and changed the outlook to positive from stable. The affirmation reflects the REIT's leading position in the global wireless infrastructure ...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos Capex in steep decline; underpins EFCF growth

We analyze the capex history & outlook for Global EM Telcos. For this group capex is falling rapidly (-12% in 2024 in US$) as competitive intensity improves and markets consolidate. Excluding China and India, EM Telco capex is already down 23% from peak.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

AMT: Thoughts following the 1Q25 call

In this brief note we touch on the drivers of tower demand and the implications for the carriers, for spectrum, and for fiber. We also touch briefly on risks associated with Dish and tariffs, the outlook for buybacks and M&A, and thoughts on guidance.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

AMT 1Q25 Quick Take: Property in-line; services strong

The property segment was slightly better than Consensus on revenue and gross margin with currency helping. Within property, US and Canada was a touch disappointing, while International was strong (helped by less of a currency headwind than expected). Services revenue and gross margin beat expectations handily, similar to SBAC last night.

American Tower Corp: 2 directors

Two Directors at American Tower Corp sold/sold after exercising options 10,634 shares at between 201.670USD and 202.970USD. The significance rating of the trade was 73/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by a...

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

AMT quick thoughts following the call

We picked up three small points from the call with implications for the wireless companies: one on FWA, one on spectrum supply / demand, and one on the impact of AI on network traffic. We don’t have insights to share on AMT specifically this quarter (but we will next quarter).

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indian Telcos & Towers News reports that the Indian government may vo...

Indian press is reporting that the Indian government is planning to cut AGR liabilities for the industry by around INR 1 trn (c. $12bn), by cutting 50% of interest and 100% of penalties and interest on penalties relating to the AGR fines. Implication would be a c. INR 520bn (US$ 6.2bn) reduction in liabilities for Vodafone IDEA and around INR 380bn (US $4.5bn) for Bharti.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indian Telcos & Towers What to expect in 2025: FWA S-curve enables mo...

FWA will likely be the key themes of 2025 in Indian Telcos we think, with the market likely to be delivering 5m+ quarterly net adds by the end of the year. This is likely to drive renewed optimism towards Bharti and enable Jio to IPO. Given Jio’s valuation of approaching $200bn if it happens this is likely to be one of the biggest events in Global Telecoms this year. On rolling forward our DCF our Indus pt rises to INR 325 and we lift our recommendation to Neutral, and stay Buyers of both Bharti...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indus Towers (Reduce, INR 280 from INR 265, -26%) Implications for I...

In this note we address the implications for Indus of creeping nationalisation at VIL, as explained in a separate note out today. Spoiler alert: they aren’t good.

American Tower Corporation: Update to credit analysis

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its good liquidity and global diversification, against the untested alternative use for its properties.

Moody's Ratings affirms American Tower's Baa3 senior unsecured debt ra...

Moody's Ratings ("Moody's") today affirmed American Tower Corporation's ("American Tower" or "the REIT") Baa3 senior unsecured rating, (P)Baa3 senior unsecured shelf programme rating, and maintained the stable outlook. The rating affirmation reflects our expectation that the REIT's leverage and cove...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indus Towers (Reduce, TP: INR265, -40%) Proposed share buyback. Our t...

Shares of Indus Towers jumped 4% today after it announced that it will consider share repurchases in the upcoming Board meeting on 30 July. This will be its first share repurchase since 2016. We share our brief thoughts below.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indian Mobile VIL Capital Increase – should you participate and what ...

Sometimes the markets behave in ways that appear irrational. VIL having sufficient market cap to launch an INR 200bn ($2.4bn) capital increase despite (in our view) being a failing business is one example. But what does it mean for Bharti, Jio and Indus?

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indian Telcos and Towers Private Equity Selling Indus Towers – Quick ...

Hot on the heels of the exit from India of AMT, the PE backers of Indus Towers are also selling, placing 7% of the company in the market. Brief thoughts and implications below.

American Tower Corporation: Key facts and statistics - LTM September 2...

A summary company profile, detailing AMT’s business operations and financial highlights.

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